Hurricane Idalia

[cptcatz]

14 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

I know all the focus is on the initial landfall, but how much should we start looking into the fact that this thing might loop back around after it exits the east coast? What is the likelihood we get a 2nd landfall next week?


.

I'm looking at that too.  GFS deterministic showed it happening and Euro has roughly 1/3 of the members doing it.  Only thing is it seems it would be pretty weak at that point.

[Seminole]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 282052
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

The satellite presentation of Idalia has continued to improve this 
afternoon.  The center of the storm is embedded within an area of 
deep convection with cloud tops colder than -75C.  Although the 
early reconnaissance aircraft and radar data from Cuba
have not yet indicated the presence of an eyewall, the aircraft
data did indicate that the pressure had fallen to around 987 mb on
the final pass through the center earlier this afternoon.
Believable SFMR winds of 60 kt were reported to the east of the
center, and Idalia's intensity was raised to that value on the
1800 UTC intermediate advisory and it remains at that value for 
this advisory. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
are scheduled to be in the storm environment again this evening and 
should provide additional information on the structure and 
intensity of the tropical cyclone.  Another NOAA G-IV synoptic 
surveillance mission is underway and that data should be
assimilated into the dynamical model runs this evening.

Idalia is moving northward or 360/7 kt.  The storm should continue
to be steered northward between a mid-level trough over the central
Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles through
tonight.  On Tuesday, a faster north-northeastward motion should
begin as a trough moves into the east-central United States.  This
motion should bring the center of Idalia to the Gulf coast of
Florida on Wednesday.   The dynamical models continue to have some
spread after 36 hours, with the GFS and HAFS guidance along the
western side of the envelope and the ECMWF along the eastern side.
The consensus aids were slightly west of the previous cycle, and
the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction. The NHC track
forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus
model.  It is still worth stressing that only a small deviation in
the track could cause a significant change in Idalia's landfall
location in Florida due to the paralleling track to the west coast
of the state.  When Idalia nears the Atlantic coast of the
southeastern United States the guidance suggests the cyclone will
turn more eastward as the aforementioned trough passes to the north
of the storm.

The upper-level wind pattern is forecast to become more conducive
for significant strengthening when Idalia moves over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday.  At the same time,
the storm is forecast to move over an area of high ocean heat
content.  These conditions are likely to allow for a period of
rapid strengthening which is explicitly shown in the official 
forecast through 36 hours. Idalia is likely to become a hurricane 
this evening, and is predicted to become major hurricane over the 
eastern Gulf within 36 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast is just a 
little above the latest HFIP corrected consensus guidance. 

Idalia is forecast to move into an area very susceptible to storm
surge, and regardless of the cyclone's landfall intensity, there is
increasing confidence of a significant storm surge event.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River.  Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.

3. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally 
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of 
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into 
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas 
Wednesday into Thursday.

4. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far western
Cuba tonight.  Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions
of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as landslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 21.4N  85.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 22.7N  85.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 24.9N  85.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 27.6N  84.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 30.4N  82.9W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
 60H  31/0600Z 32.7N  80.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/1800Z 34.0N  76.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  01/1800Z 34.1N  71.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 34.0N  69.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

 

[WEATHER53]

47 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I think we are approaching full moon during this event as well.  I have spoken to my friend in Cape Coral (who by the way is still trying to fix the roof that was blown off by 150 mph winds) says the Gulf of Mexico and the canals have already as of this morning and early afternoon shown water rises at this point already. 

I’ve got a buddy with two properties in cape  coral and he’s there now

what do you think he is in for?

thanks 

[Seminole]

 

[Eskimo Joe]

51 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

I know all the focus is on the initial landfall, but how much should we start looking into the fact that this thing might loop back around after it exits the east coast? What is the likelihood we get a 2nd landfall next week?

The 12z GFS tries this, but it never gets its act back together. Wouldn't be too worried about a loop back.

[Hotair]

FL CFO reminds of the fire danger of leaving EVs at risk to storm surge.  I just got back from my Clearwater beach condo and counted 7 teslas in the lower parking garage.  I certainly hope they are moved by tomorrow.  I almost wish they would all get towed if they haven’t been moved by 5 pm tomorrow 

 

 

[Looking to the skies]

Euro ensembles showing a loop, almost every one turns back south. 

[KPITSnow]

1 hour ago, TPAwx said:

Had 4ft IMFY from TS Eta, on a not dissimilar track maybe a degree to the right of Idi’s current track.  Of course Eta had a lot of energy built up.  The 4-7 forecast for TB may end up on the lower range of possibilities.

So a TS with a similar track would be similar to a potential cat 3 storm? I don’t know if that makes sense? 

[Ahoff]

4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

So a TS with a similar track would be similar to a potential cat 3 storm? I don’t know if that makes sense? 

I think they were comparing tracks and saying this could be worse than forecasted.

[KPITSnow]

Just now, Ahoff said:

I think they were comparing tracks and saying this could be worse than forecasted.

I just reread it. You’re right. I thought he meant it would be on the lower range of 4-7 feet 

[Ahoff]

5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I just reread it. You’re right. I thought he meant it would be on the lower range of 4-7 feet 

Yeah, if that’s low for Tampa Bay, it won’t be good for them at all.

[StantonParkHoya]

GFS showing a weaker landfall on 18z

[TPAwx]

10 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I just reread it. You’re right. I thought he meant it would be on the lower range of 4-7 feet 

TS Eta gave us 4ft, the steps go down to a sidewalk and four traffic lanes and another sidewalk before the white barrier.  

Idalia will be on top of an enhanced full moon high tide at a likely Cat 3 intensity.  The 4-7 surge forecast could end up a bit higher.

[hawkeye_wx]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

GFS showing a weaker landfall on 18z

This run of the GFS has the storm at 989 mb Tuesday evening.  It's probably 985 mb now, so unlikely to be right.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

GFS showing a weaker landfall on 18z

Honestly, until Idalia develops a solid core (which will take several more hours), model track and intensity will continue to fluctuate.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’ve got a buddy with two properties in cape  coral and he’s there now

what do you think he is in for?

thanks 

I would say at this time looking at the current track Tropical Storm force winds in bands 30-50 mph winds, 2-3" of rain and 3–5-foot storm surge of course this all can change depending on how far east the track is. 

[Hotair]

Satellite presentation now looks much better organized.  Idalia could easily set records for RI given the hot waters in its path 

[Hotair]

[BYG Jacob]

980.8 on the first pass

[Covidea]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’ve got a buddy with two properties in cape  coral and he’s there now

what do you think he is in for?

thanks 

I'm in Cape Coral. WINK news meteorologist Matt Devitt just categorically stated "This is NOT our storm". We'll have heavy rain and windy conditions. This is no different than the 2 storms that just barreled through this afternoon. I'll take 2-4 ft. of surge compared to the river that was running down my street during Ian. We luckily suffered little to no damage to our home in the "A" evacuation zone (we stayed home and rode it out). Prayers that the people hit by this storm fare better than we did. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

 

[Hotair]

Found 983 mb on latest dropsonde   Idalia may get a promotion as soon as the 8 pm advisory. 

[ineedsnow]

weak but after the loop Idalia hits almost the same spot in 10 days 

[NorthHillsWx]

Based on recon and sat imagery I bet this has reached hurricane status. I’m guessing upgrade coming at the intermediate advisory 

[Covidea]

The men and women who fly these recon flights must be amazing people. This is from Flightradar24.com and shows the aircraft currently out there. 

[Hotair]

Tampa TV Mets are downplaying this storm bigly.   Saying this will be little more than a wind event for the area.  I hope they are right in their bravado.  

[WxSynopsisDavid]

4 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

Again, am I missing something here?

As I mentioned earlier, until we get a solid core and eye with Idalia models will continue to fluctuate with track and intensity. 

[NeffsvilleWx]

8 minutes ago, Covidea said:

The men and women who fly these recon flights must be amazing people. This is from Flightradar24.com and shows the aircraft currently out there. 

They all know where each other is — and they’ve got regional airspace coordinators keeping an eye out.

[dbullsfan]

Tampa TV Mets are downplaying this storm bigly.   Saying this will be little more than a wind event for the area.  I hope they are right in their bravado.  

Unless thing’s drastically change it will be a surge and wind event is all. For anyone more than 2-3 miles inland this will most likely be no worse than multiple storms we have had already this year. Everything points to this going further north


.

[Hotair]

Can we take just a brief moment to acknowledge just how beautiful a cane that Franklin over in the Atlantic has become ?  What an absolute beast!