Hurricane Idalia

[NERMAN]

4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I would wager 931 MB on the HWRF and 926 MB on the HAFS-B (both FH051) are not "strong Cat 3 to low-end Cat 4" verbatim.

BTW, is there any other way to pronounce the new hurricane model besides "half-ass"? I can't think of one.

HMON and HAFS-A are both in the mid 950's. Splitting the difference with the two you mentioned gets a strong cat 3 to low-end cat 4. 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

May not be much on the immediate coast but some of the hurricane model solutions would put the western eyewall over Tallahassee; with how fast this thing is going to be trucking inland I'd expect they would get a lot more wind than during Michael if those verified.

[CheeselandSkies]

Just now, NERMAN said:

HMON and HAFS-A are both in the mid 950's. Splitting the difference with the two you mentioned gets a strong cat 3 to low-end cat 4. 

Fair enough.

[GaWx]

 So, regarding the 12Z runs vs 0Z runs in summary for FL landfall, 4 of 5 shifted NW/left (though mainly slight other than UKMET's 65 mile shift) while the CMC is the lone model that shifted SE/right a bit.

[Seminole]

8 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

May not be much on the immediate coast but some of the hurricane model solutions would put the western eyewall over Tallahassee; with how fast this thing is going to be trucking inland I'd expect they would get a lot more wind than during Michael if those verified.

An eyewall over Tallahassee would mean power outages for 95% of Tallahassee. The power grid in that town has miles and miles of power lines intertwined with Canopy roads the service large sections of the population. 

 

[Hotair]

A glance at SST in the GoM shows nice 32+° water on the way to LF 

 

 

[Prospero]

15 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

What's the complex made of and how far is it from the coast? 

In Pinellas County distance from the coast is not what counts, it is the Zone Map. I live five blocks from Boca Ciega Bay, but am about 15ft up in elevation. If we get a surge up to our house, much of Pinellas will be under water, maybe even from the Tampa Bay to the Gulf is some areas way inland.

[NERMAN]

14 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

May not be much on the immediate coast but some of the hurricane model solutions would put the western eyewall over Tallahassee; with how fast this thing is going to be trucking inland I'd expect they would get a lot more wind than during Michael if those verified.

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't the GFS show this too? 

[Prospero]

Pinellas County evacuation map below. Notice the areas in white not in evacuation zones; near the Gulf coast is some of the "highest" land on our old sand bar.

https://thegabber.com/update-7-idalia-evacuations-in-pinellas-begin/

[Retrobuc]

12 minutes ago, Prospero said:

In Pinellas County distance from the coast is not what counts, it is the Zone Map. I live five blocks from Boca Ciega Bay, but am about 15ft up in elevation. If we get a surge up to our house, much of Pinellas will be under water, maybe even from the Tampa Bay to the Gulf is some areas way inland.

Zone B, right on the border of A.  She is just of the 275 causeway

[Master of Disaster]

16 minutes ago, Prospero said:

In Pinellas County distance from the coast is not what counts, it is the Zone Map. I live five blocks from Boca Ciega Bay, but am about 15ft up in elevation. If we get a surge up to our house, much of Pinellas will be under water, maybe even from the Tampa Bay to the Gulf is some areas way inland.

I use to say 15 foot is absurd but Ian proved a whole lotta people wrong with storm surge. Be safe. 

[Prospero]

15 minutes ago, Retrobuc said:

Zone B, right on the border of A.  She is just of the 275 causeway

If she has a place to stay higher up near by, she should be ready to go. If she needs to leave the County, sooner the better as traffic starts to back up and that SUCKS.

Finding a hotel is probably already a challenge.

Possible the tide will be sucked out during the day early tomorrow with some offshore winds creating a false sense of security, but once it wraps around it can be like a tsunami coming in.

[Retrobuc]

11 minutes ago, Prospero said:

If she has a place to stay higher up near by, she should be ready to go. If she needs to leave the County, sooner the better as traffic starts to back up and that SUCKS.

Finding a hotel is probably already a challenge.

Possible the tide will be sucked out during the day early tomorrow with some offshore winds creating a false sense of security, but once it wraps around it can be like a tsunami coming in.

Thanks, I think she is going to leave tomorrow morning for our side of the state (Volusia)

[SolidIcewx]

8 minutes ago, Retrobuc said:

Thanks, I think she is going to leave tomorrow morning for our side of the state (Volusia)

The sooner the better

[Boston Bulldog]

Stage is now being set for Idalia to organize significantly once it clears Cuba and enters the gulf

 

[schoeppeya]

4 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Stage is now being set for Idalia to organize significantly once it clears Cuba and enters the gulf

 

Originally posted in the wrong thread but the low over florida has clearly moved into a better position to provide some ventilation to the northeast 

[Radtechwxman]

Last few frames of the satellite loop seem to have a more ne component to the storm motion. Could be a temporary wobble as the center establishes itself but curious if it will hold. This motion could cause more land interaction with Cuba. However, with Ian last year this actually helped to tighten up the core. The terrain isn't too mountainous on the western tip to cause a lot of disruption to the LLC. 

[accountingdawg2012]

Long time reader, first time poster.  How quickly do we think this storm will weaken once it makes landfall? My wife and I are scheduled to travel to the Georgia coast on Thursday but obviously don't want to do that if it looks like the storm will have done major damage to that area after it tracks through on Wednesday afternoon into the evening.  Our hotel has told us we are welcome to wait and see or they will go ahead and cancel and refund us so we are not concerned about that.  Having grown up on the Georgia coast and evacuated for some near misses, I certainly don't want to be heading down on Thursday into a disaster zone as a tourist, but I'm not sure if the wait and see approach is the best idea or if we should go ahead and cancel.

[Kevin Reilly]

I think a lot of people are focusing on where landfall of Idalia will take place.  Here is the bottom line If Idalia is say 60 miles west of the West Coast of Florida moving North or NNE or NE the entire coast will experience significant storm surge and anywhere just E or SE of where the Center comes ashore will be experience very severe to life threatening if a CAT 3 or 4 storm surge problems. 

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

I use to say 15 foot is absurd but Ian proved a whole lotta people wrong with storm surge. Be safe. 

 Not meaning to scare anyone and for those who were unaware, Tampa Bay supposedly had as much as a 15 foot surge 9/25/1848 assuming accurate records! It appears that was from either a strong cat 3 or more likely a cat 4 with its 945 mb center moving ENE into Clearwater. Tampa, which was then just a small village of <200, measured 954 mb. This is pretty much the worst case scenario that would require everything to go wrong (very strong storm, center landfall very close, large size, angle/speed of approach, etc) and I'd hope that it is no more than a one in several hundred year event on average:

https://baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2012/9/25/great_gale_of_1948

[KPITSnow]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I think a lot of people are focusing on where landfall of Idalia will take place.  Here is the bottom line If Idalia is say 60 miles west of the West Coast of Florida moving North or NNE or NE the entire coast will experience significant storm surge and anywhere just E or SE of where the Center comes ashore will be experience very severe to life threatening if a CAT 3 or 4 storm surge problems. 

I think the evac order reflect this. A storm skirting the coast and land falling in the Big Bend area is a far worse scenario for the Tampa area than Ian was. The surge won’t be catastrophic in a place like Tampa but could still be very significant.

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, accountingdawg2012 said:

Long time reader, first time poster.  How quickly do we think this storm will weaken once it makes landfall? My wife and I are scheduled to travel to the Georgia coast on Thursday but obviously don't want to do that if it looks like the storm will have done major damage to that area after it tracks through on Wednesday afternoon into the evening.  Our hotel has told us we are welcome to wait and see or they will go ahead and cancel and refund us so we are not concerned about that.  Having grown up on the Georgia coast and evacuated for some near misses, I certainly don't want to be heading down on Thursday into a disaster zone as a tourist, but I'm not sure if the wait and see approach is the best idea or if we should go ahead and cancel.

No offense but I'd plan to come at another time without hesitation.

[Hotair]

Nice simulation of Gulfport FL flooding due to expected storm surge from Idalia

 

https://twitter.com/mikebettes/status/1696249278191083764?s=20

 

[accountingdawg2012]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

No offense but I'd plan to come at another time without hesitation.

No, offense not taken - it's a trip for our 10th wedding anniversary and we are scheduled to stay at Sea Island so it's a pretty special trip for us that we've been planning for a year, so we're trying to figure out what to do, but are leaning towards cancelling.  Unfortunately rescheduling this year isn't an option for us as my in-laws are the only ones that can watch our kids and this was the only time they could do so for an extended period so it's either wait and see or cancel.

The resort has basically said they're planning on operating but I feel like that's a pretty optimistic outlook based on what Irma did to the island in 2017.

[TPAwx]

18 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I think a lot of people are focusing on where landfall of Idalia will take place.  Here is the bottom line If Idalia is say 60 miles west of the West Coast of Florida moving North or NNE or NE the entire coast will experience significant storm surge and anywhere just E or SE of where the Center comes ashore will be experience very severe to life threatening if a CAT 3 or 4 storm surge problems. 

Had 4ft IMFY from TS Eta, on a not dissimilar track maybe a degree to the right of Idi’s current track.  Of course Eta had a lot of energy built up.  The 4-7 forecast for TB may end up on the lower range of possibilities.

[Kevin Reilly]

I think we are approaching full moon during this event as well.  I have spoken to my friend in Cape Coral (who by the way is still trying to fix the roof that was blown off by 150 mph winds) says the Gulf of Mexico and the canals have already as of this morning and early afternoon shown water rises at this point already. 

[dbullsfan]

I know all the focus is on the initial landfall, but how much should we start looking into the fact that this thing might loop back around after it exits the east coast? What is the likelihood we get a 2nd landfall next week?


.

[beanskip]

31 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I think a lot of people are focusing on where landfall of Idalia will take place.  Here is the bottom line If Idalia is say 60 miles west of the West Coast of Florida moving North or NNE or NE the entire coast will experience significant storm surge and anywhere just E or SE of where the Center comes ashore will be experience very severe to life threatening if a CAT 3 or 4 storm surge problems. 

Understood and I agree. BUT, for those of us concerned about staying on the west side of landfall, 60 miles can mean a lot! 

[Rtd208]

Some links of interest as Idalia approaches Florida. I will post additional as I find them.

https://hwn.org/

https://livestormchasing.com/map

https://www.twitch.tv/stormchaserwx1

https://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/35392

https://poweroutage.us/area/state/florida