Hotair Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Euro ensembles from @HurricanesJames show tight overlap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retrobuc Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, beanskip said: Is there history on the direction of this miss. These two examples are both to the right -- is that a known bias or just a coincidence for these two? I feel like most storms have moved east, but that's just a feel, nothing quantitative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Last NOAA Dropsonde is labeled "SE Eyewall" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 17 minutes ago, Hotair said: Euro ensembles from @HurricanesJames show tight overlap. Would love to see the op run plotted on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, Derecho! said: Last NOAA Dropsonde is labeled "SE Eyewall" Now sonde #9 is labeled as in the eye. VDM will be telling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Is the storm becoming less vertically tilted Or *when is it forecast to be * because until that gets sorted, strengthening is almost always slow/steady in my experiences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 There is still a decent amount of spread in the ensembles (both EPS and GEFS) with regards to impacts on the SE coast. The exact track will determine impacts not only at the coast, but inland. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Just putting this model image out there, from August 20, eight days ago, for this exact time stamp. Compare to current satellite...this is why Euro always reigns supreme. 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Models mostly predicted this system would have issues until it got into the gulf Monday night and Tuesday. It has done well to get down to 990 mb, but, as others have noted, it has yet to be able to wrap the convection around the surface center. It continues to try, but so far it's just a series of strong cells trying hard to hold onto the center while being pushed back south/southeast by some dry, shearing flow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 24 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Just putting this model image out there, from August 20, eight days ago, for this exact time stamp. Compare to current satellite...this is why Euro always reigns supreme. Just 50mb off for Franklin. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Just 50mb off for Franklin. lol well Euro always has trouble with intensity. But this is when GFS was seeing nada in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Just now, cptcatz said: lol well Euro always has trouble with intensity. But this is when GFS was seeing nada in the Caribbean. Yeah GFS missed Idalia. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Well, I know we're not supposed to talk about the NAM for tropics -- or much of anything else -- but it is showing a pretty striking trend to the west and slower on its 12z run. Given that King Euro crept west at Oz and the hurricane models did at 6z, I think something might be going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 As 12z suite comes in, thinking about the ~50 n mi average track error at 48h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 With so many consistent moves to the east, a move back west wouldn't be surprising at this point. It's really going to depend on the speed and the trough strength to the north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah GFS missed Idalia. Which is surprising considering the GFS loves to spin up anything coming from a CAG. Completely missed the signal. 13 minutes ago, TPAwx said: As 12z suite comes in, thinking about the ~50 n mi average track error at 48h Probably a nail biter to the end. Good thing is that the steady northward movement now should help smooth out any stall related hiccups we may have seen on track guidance. 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: With so many consistent moves to the east, a move back west wouldn't be surprising at this point. It's really going to depend on the speed and the trough strength to the north. Agree. I don’t think we see a major shift at this point, but as the NHC says, the parallel movement up the west coast of Florida means any deviation has a major impact. Would not be surprised if this entered the Atlantic as a minimal hurricane if it comes into Florida south enough. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: With so many consistent moves to the east, a move back west wouldn't be surprising at this point. It's really going to depend on the speed and the trough strength to the north. With her reluctance to move north in wonder if we get into a scenario where the trough leaves her behind a little as the models are hinting at just offshore. For practical impacts along the east coast inwonder if a slight miss by the trough equals less east turn and we see a closer to the coast track say Charleston to lookout or so? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Still 65mph at 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 85.2W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Englewood northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Middle of Longboat Key northward to the Holocene River, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key, and from west of the Lockheed River westward to Indian Pass. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Atlantic coast of Florida and Georgia from Sebastian Inlet, Florida northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Englewood northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Middle of Longboat Key northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Isle of Youth Cuba * Dry Tortugas Florida * Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key * West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour * Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound Georgia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key * West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of the Middle of Longboat Key to Chokoloskee Florida * West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge * Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 85.2 West. Idalia is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba tonight, over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday, and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later today and a dangerous major hurricane over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft Tampa Bay...4-7 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-4 ft Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's River...1-3 ft Florida Keys...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in western Cuba later today. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle of Youth in Cuba through today Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas beginning late today and within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches. Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches. Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADO: A few tornadoes will be possible starting Tuesday along the west central Florida coast and the tornado threat will spread northward into the Florida Big Bend area by Tuesday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Hurricane Warning up for Tampa Bay proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 The satellite presentation of the storm has improved this morning with the center more deeply embedded within the deep convection and colder cloud tops. However, recent reconnaissance aircraft data from both the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA indicate that the improved satellite presentation has not yet resulted in an increase in wind speed. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 68 kt, and a minimum pressure around 990 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 55 kt this advisory. The Air Force aircraft will be in the storm environment through early afternoon and that data should continue to provide information Idalia's structure and intensity. Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Idalia is moving northward or 360/8 kt. A mid-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles should cause Idalia to move northward at a faster forward speed during the next 12-24 hours. After that time, an even faster north-northeast motion is expected an another mid-level trough moves across the central and eastern portions of the United States. The latest NHC track forecast is again quite similar to the previous forecast. Although the track forecast has been quite consistent, there is still some spread in the guidance by 48 hours, and it cannot be emphasized enough that only a small deviation in the track could cause a significant change in Idalia's landfall location in Florida due to the paralleling track to the west coast of the state. Although there is still some moderate northwesterly over the storm, intensification seems likely during the next 12-18 hours, and Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane during that time. By Tuesday, the environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to become more conducive for strengthening. Steady to rapid intensification is predicted beginning Tuesday while Idalia traverses the warm waters of the eastern Gulf and the upper-level environment becomes more favorable. The NHC intensity forecast again calls for Idalia to reach major hurricane strength before landfall along the Gulf coast of Florida. This forecast has necessitated the issuance of Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings for portions of the west coast of Florida and Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the Atlantic coasts of Florida and Georgia. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of Florida. Inundation of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is expected somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia. 3. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. 4. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far western Cuba later today. Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across western Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.8N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 22.0N 85.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 23.9N 85.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 26.4N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 29.2N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 31.9N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1200Z 33.6N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 01/1200Z 34.6N 71.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 34.5N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 NHC now not showing quite as much intensification prior to landfall. the 12z intensity models on Tropical Tidbits have also pulled back a bit, keeping Idalia and strong 2 to weak 3. Of course RI can be hard to predict, so can't assume anything from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 minute ago, dan11295 said: NHC now not showing quite as much intensification prior to landfall. the 12z intensity models on Tropical Tidbits have also pulled back a bit, keeping Idalia and strong 2 to weak 3. Of course RI can be hard to predict, so can't assume anything from that. The 12Z hurricane models aren't actually out yet, and won't be for another few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: The 12Z hurricane models aren't actually out yet, and won't be for another few hours. Tropical Tidbits has them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tropical Tidbits has them. Where? All still the 06Z runs for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said: Where? All still the 06Z runs for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That is not intensity guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 GFS trying to turn Idalia back into the southeast at HR 168? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now