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Hurricane Idalia


hlcater
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3 hours ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I could see why you might think that. In this case however, there's little shear and definitely some banding in the southern semi-circle in the lead-up and during the burst.

Edit: A bit of northerly shear and dry air, but nowhere near what Franklin was having to endure during its CCC phase.

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 I'm becoming increasingly concerned even up here for potential major impacts if a worst case scenario of a major hurricane FL landfall and subsequent track too close to this area were to materialize. In that worst case scenario, it would be difficult to deal with due to complicating family circumstances (disability related). Ugh

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1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 I'm becoming increasingly concerned even up here for potential major impacts if a worst case scenario of a major hurricane FL landfall and subsequent track too close to this area were to materialize. In that worst case scenario, it would be difficult to deal with due to complicating family circumstances (disability related). Ugh

Someone with more experience can correct me if my assumption is wrong, but if the vertical column stacks within the next 6-8hrs i believe the worse case scenario will unfold. Really hinges on how Idalia organizes/develops the core and if it continues to abate the shear and dry air

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Center dropsonde shows a pressure around 989-990mb.

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 5:17Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Name: Idalia
Storm Number: 10 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 5Z on the 28th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 925mb
Coordinates: 19.7N 85.2W
Location: 147 statute miles (237 km) to the SE (133°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico.
Marsden Square: 045 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -82m (-269 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
991mb (29.27 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.8°C (82.0°F) 25.0°C (77°F) 190° (from the S) 17 knots (20 mph)
925mb 609m (1,998 ft) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 22.8°C (73°F) 205° (from the SSW) 14 knots (16 mph)
850mb 1,349m (4,426 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 18.8°C (66°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 5:09Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 19.70N 85.23W
- Time: 5:09:19Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 19.70N 85.22W
- Time: 5:11:17Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 200° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 15 knots (17 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 190° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 14 knots (16 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 853mb to 990mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 16 knots (18 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30407
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
991mb (Surface) 27.8°C (82.0°F) 25.0°C (77°F)
897mb 22.2°C (72.0°F) 21.3°C (70°F)
860mb 21.6°C (70.9°F) 20.5°C (69°F)
850mb 22.4°C (72.3°F) 18.8°C (66°F)
844mb Unavailable
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
991mb (Surface) 190° (from the S) 17 knots (20 mph)
944mb 205° (from the SSW) 13 knots (15 mph)
927mb 205° (from the SSW) 15 knots (17 mph)
865mb 160° (from the SSE) 15 knots (17 mph)
853mb 155° (from the SSE) 11 knots (13 mph)
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First VDM. Importantly, no evidence of an eye from recon. I'm interested in seeing what the wind field looks like (how symmetrical it is) and what the FL/SFMR are in the NE quad. Will also be telling if pressures fall in between center fixes. 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 5:28Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Name: Idalia
Storm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 5:08:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19.72N 85.25W
B. Center Fix Location: 144 statute miles (232 km) to the SE (134°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,363m (4,472ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.27 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 190° at 17kts (From the S at 20mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 27kts (31.1mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (309°) of center fix at 5:03:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 36° at 31kts (From the NE at 35.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NW (309°) of center fix at 5:01:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 54kts (62.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix at 5:14:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 230° at 59kts (From the SW at 67.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix at 5:12:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,532m (5,026ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,534m (5,033ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (134°) from the flight level center at 5:12:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 26°C (79°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NW (313°) from the flight level center
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 280548
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
100 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHES IDALIA...
...IDALIA FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 85.3W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system.  Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 
latitude 19.7 North, longitude 85.3 West. Idalia has been moving 
erratically and is nearly stationary.  A motion toward the 
north-northeast and north is expected to begin later today,
bringing the center of Idalia over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by tonight.  Idalia will then continue on a northward or
north-northeastward path over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday
and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Aircraft data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 
60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast, and 
Idalia is expected to become a hurricane later today.  Idalia is 
likely to be near or at major hurricane intensity when it reaches 
the Gulf coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.  NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported a sustained wind
of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 
990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in western Cuba by late today.  Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle
of Youth in Cuba through today

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by
late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dry Tortugas beginning
late today and within the tropical storm watch area along the
Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated higher
totals of 5 inches.

Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions of the Carolinas by
Wednesday into Thursday.

Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding is expected across
portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy
rainfall may lead to flash flooding across portions of the Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake
 

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990 mb on the new advisory. This thing will definitely trend towards a lower than normal pressure. Reminds me a bit of Hurricane Isidore in 2002 (which also did a loop near the Yucatan Peninsula). Isidore started as a tropical storm with a lower pressure similar to Idalia, and ended up being down to 934 mb despite only having winds of 125 mph.

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992.2mb extrapolated on the second pass. Peak FL of 53kts and SFMR of 47 & 48kts. Idalia has made a lot of progress in the last 24 hours in tightening up, but it's not there yet in terms of developing a nascent inner core. Not enough upshear thunderstorm activity is limiting intensification. For now. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

992.2mb extrapolated on the second pass. Peak FL of 53kts and SFMR of 47 & 48kts. Idalia has made a lot of progress in the last 24 hours in tightening up, but it's not there yet in terms of developing a nascent inner core. Not enough upshear thunderstorm activity is limiting intensification. For now. 

My suspicion is that there is some sort of internal process happening. Next 3-6hrs will be interesting.

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Yeah I mean as long as there are deep convective bursts like this it makes it more likely we see it wrap up. The hurricane models have had a good handle on its structure looking at 00z. It may take time, but a legitimate signal remains for a major hurricane. 

Latest dropsonde suggests that the pressures are lower than the extrapolated, and the first sonde about an hour ago, so it's moving along...

Off to bed now. Night everyone.  

 

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 6:24Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Name: Idalia
Storm Number: 10 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 15 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 6Z on the 28th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 925mb
Coordinates: 19.8N 85.2W
Location: 143 statute miles (229 km) to the SE (131°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico.
Marsden Square: 045 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -96m (-315 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
989mb (29.21 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 28.0°C (82.4°F) 26.4°C (80°F) 240° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph)
925mb 597m (1,959 ft) 24.2°C (75.6°F) 23.6°C (74°F) 230° (from the SW) 11 knots (13 mph)
850mb 1,341m (4,400 ft) 24.4°C (75.9°F) About 17°C (63°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 6:19Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 19.81N 85.19W
- Time: 6:19:25Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 19.82N 85.19W
- Time: 6:21:23Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 10 knots (12 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 852mb to 989mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30407
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
989mb (Surface) 28.0°C (82.4°F) 26.4°C (80°F)
907mb 23.4°C (74.1°F) 23.2°C (74°F)
850mb 24.4°C (75.9°F) About 17°C (63°F)
843mb Unavailable
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
989mb (Surface) 240° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph)
980mb 230° (from the SW) 12 knots (14 mph)
928mb 225° (from the SW) 12 knots (14 mph)
887mb 240° (from the WSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
864mb 190° (from the S) 7 knots (8 mph)
852mb 280° (from the W) 1 knots (1 mph)
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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah I mean as long as there are deep convective bursts like this it makes it more likely we see it wrap up. The hurricane models have had a good handle on its structure looking at 00z. It may take time, but a legitimate signal remains for a major hurricane. 

Latest dropsonde suggests that the pressures are lower than the extrapolated, and the first sonde about an hour ago, so it's moving along...

Off to bed now. Night everyone.  

 

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 6:24Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Name: Idalia
Storm Number: 10 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 15 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 6Z on the 28th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 925mb
Coordinates: 19.8N 85.2W
Location: 143 statute miles (229 km) to the SE (131°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico.
Marsden Square: 045 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -96m (-315 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
989mb (29.21 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 28.0°C (82.4°F) 26.4°C (80°F) 240° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph)
925mb 597m (1,959 ft) 24.2°C (75.6°F) 23.6°C (74°F) 230° (from the SW) 11 knots (13 mph)
850mb 1,341m (4,400 ft) 24.4°C (75.9°F) About 17°C (63°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 6:19Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 19.81N 85.19W
- Time: 6:19:25Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 19.82N 85.19W
- Time: 6:21:23Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 10 knots (12 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 852mb to 989mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30407
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
989mb (Surface) 28.0°C (82.4°F) 26.4°C (80°F)
907mb 23.4°C (74.1°F) 23.2°C (74°F)
850mb 24.4°C (75.9°F) About 17°C (63°F)
843mb Unavailable
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
989mb (Surface) 240° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph)
980mb 230° (from the SW) 12 knots (14 mph)
928mb 225° (from the SW) 12 knots (14 mph)
887mb 240° (from the WSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
864mb 190° (from the S) 7 knots (8 mph)
852mb 280° (from the W) 1 knots (1 mph)

Night man, thanks for the analysis and breakdown of recon data.

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