Floydbuster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I'm not convinced Idalia will get that much stronger. The eye seems so small that it almost looks ready to peak, IMO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Cedar Key FL starting to get hit hard. It looks like the storm surge is starting to make its way in on live cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Yeah I'm not sure it will make cat 4. Running out of time quickly. Landfall could be in next few hours. Idalia is flying nne. Incredible lightning burst right now. Is recon still in there? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 They've already found Cat 4 winds lol and with the amount of lightning and blowups it'll probably deepen a bit more 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Yeah I'm not sure it will make cat 4. Running out of time quickly. Landfall could be in next few hours. Idalia is flying nne. Incredible lightning burst right now. Is recon still in there? Recon is still sampling, yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: They've already found Cat 4 winds lol and with the amount of lightning and blowups it'll probably deepen a bit more And just like that, you can see velocities spiking on radar again. Also, the eye is ragged looking due to mesovortices rotating around the eye, if anyone was interested. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 The rapid burst of -90c in NW eyewall with new convection going up in NE eyewall is indicative of frictional-induced RI. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 12 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: They've already found Cat 4 winds lol and with the amount of lightning and blowups it'll probably deepen a bit more Still have several hours until landfall too. I don't understand why a storm can't jump 5 MPH in that timeframe. Anyways Cedar Key was shown on TWC and it is getting quite intense waves/surge wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I mean…this is pretty wild. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Those new blowups are so intense they're completely blocking the eye on satellite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Those new blowups are so intense they're completely blocking the eye on satellite The core just looks so impressive. Wherever this comes ashore, it's going to be insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Those new blowups are so intense they're completely blocking the eye on satellite It's like she hit that pocket of 90 degree ssts and spazzed out lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 While the pressure is not as low yet as some of the crazy HAFS runs from 24h ago its now lower that any of the 0z runs had. Also noting the lopsided presentation on radar. Seem like it wouldnt take much to get dry into the eye and stop intensification/raise the pressure a bit, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, ScottB said: It's like she hit that pocket of 90 degree ssts and spazzed out lol That’s exactly what happened, but you also have a jet streak up top enhancing the RI along with the trough. This frictional-induced RI is going to be incredible to witness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 And there it is. Cat 4 130 mph @ 5 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, dan11295 said: While the pressure is not as low yet as some of the crazy HAFS runs from 24h ago its now lower that any of the 0z runs had. Also noting the lopsided presentation on radar. Seem like it wouldnt take much to get dry into the eye and stop intensification/raise the pressure a bit, Negative, lopsided appearance is due to the hot towers rapidly going up. They are so big they are blocking the eye and causing a distorted appearance. You also got mesovortices inside the eye too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
accountingdawg2012 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 10 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Still have several hours until landfall too. I don't understand why a storm can't jump 5 MPH in that timeframe. Anyways Cedar Key was shown on TWC and it is getting quite intense waves/surge wise. What is the anticipated landfall time at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 " The hurricane still has a few hours left to intensify before it makes landfall." From 5 am discussion 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of the United States from Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from St. Catherine's Sound to South Santee River. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border, and Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. The Tropical Storm Warning for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach southward is discontinued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: " The hurricane still has a few hours left to intensify before it makes landfall." From 5 am discussion That explicit rhetoric is not used often by NHC so that should aid in peoples doubts concerning if Idalia has time for additional intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Idalia continues to undergo rapid intensification. Maximum flight-level winds were 123 kt, with believable SFMR values of 115 kt. Satellite images show a small eye surrounded by very cold clouds tops, especially in the western quadrant. The initial wind speed is set to 115 kt, making Idalia an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane. The hurricane still has a few hours left to intensify before it makes landfall. The biggest change to the intensity forecast is to increase the wind speeds over southeastern Georgia and South Carolina as the rapid motion and track close to the coast is expected to keep the system near hurricane strength for longer. Thus a Hurricane Warning has been issued for a portion of those coasts, and the Hurricane Watch is extended northeastward. After the hurricane moves offshore, the wind field on the northwestern side near eastern North Carolina is expected to be enhanced by a cold front, and the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in that area. The long-range intensity forecast is quite uncertain with Idalia taking on some hybrid characteristics due to a baroclinc trough. No changes were made at this time, and the forecast remains close to the consensus. Idalia is moving faster toward the north-northeast or 025/16 kt. After landfall, Idalia is expected to move near or along the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas in 24-36 hours. Uncertainty in the track forecast beyond 48 hours remains quite large, and the latest guidance is significantly faster. The new forecast is adjusted toward the consensus, but could be too slow at long range. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere between the Wakulla/Jefferson County line and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Destructive life-threatening winds will occur where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be prepared for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina where Hurricane Warnings are now in effect. 3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with considerable impacts, are expected from the Florida Big Ben through, central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina into Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 29.1N 84.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 31.0N 82.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/0600Z 33.1N 79.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/1800Z 33.8N 76.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 01/0600Z 33.3N 72.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 32.4N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 31.5N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 30.7N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 30.5N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 IR and radar presentation would seem to argue it’s peaked or close to it. Eastern eyewall looks a little ragged. Western eyewall is a beast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Power outages starting to go up substnatially especially in the big bend area. https://poweroutage.us/area/state/florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Still curious why eastern to southeastern quadrant looks like dry air ate up precip when there really isn't any dry air issues showing up on water vapor. It has a tight core but not much precip on eastern side except the feeder bands. Very odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: IR and radar presentation would seem to argue it’s peaked or close to it. Eastern eyewall looks a little ragged. Western eyewall is a beast. Need to wrap that around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: IR and radar presentation would seem to argue it’s peaked or close to it. Eastern eyewall looks a little ragged. Western eyewall is a beast. Yea we blipped to cat 4 so everyone can say it went cat 4 instead of high end 3. Probably has about 2 hours till landfall probably will just maintain status quo at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Eye disappearing on satellite now. Not sure if that's because of intense convection to the west obscuring it or possible weakening or leveling out now after maxing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 9 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Eye disappearing on satellite now. Not sure if that's because of intense convection to the west obscuring it or possible weakening or leveling out now after maxing out. Likely because of VHT. The NW eyewall one is nasty. EDIT: Actually probably a little weakening. Eyewall is looking less defined on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Newest pass missed the center sadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Southern eyewall just opened up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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