NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Latest radar scans clearly show a well definied eye has emerged. Here in Orange County things look to be trending towards low impact. Tornado watch is just to our West. No rain here since intense squall 4 hours ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Radar looks pretty classic. Only difference is the eyewall doesn't have that ring of fire look you see in high end cat 4 and 5. Can she make it before running out of water? We'll see. Cat 3 is pretty much a given at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 There is zero possibility that eye is 20 miles across imo. The eye contracting has been noted for at least two hours. Anyone have a way to measure the distance from eye wall to eye wall? I am curious if sat and radar actually show this or if it just looks that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Sanibel had its strongest gust of the day just now. Winds are picking up here in Pinellas County, still sub-TS for sure. It appears Idalia has a tail that will whip us late tonight and tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mello Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: What else would it be then? A pretty normal sized eye that's still in the process of clearing out in an intensifying hurricane. Pretty sure hurricane Delta in 2020 was the last Atlantic hurricane with a real pinhole eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 18z UKMET has like the 18Z Euro shifted its landfall 15 miles SE along with the remaining SE US track. The 12Z UK landfall was in C Taylor Cty and the 18Z is in S Taylor Cty. Also, 18Z landfalls 2.5 hours sooner (7:30AM) vs 10AM on 12Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said: There is zero possibility that eye is 20 miles across imo. The eye contracting has been noted for at least two hours. Anyone have a way to measure the distance from eye wall to eye wall? I am curious if sat and radar actually show this or if it just looks that way? I'm measuring radius of about 6 miles at an altitude of about 16k feet per TBW radar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said: There is zero possibility that eye is 20 miles across imo. The eye contracting has been noted for at least two hours. Anyone have a way to measure the distance from eye wall to eye wall? I am curious if sat and radar actually show this or if it just looks that way? About 12 mi wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, Mello said: A pretty normal sized eye that's still in the process of clearing out in an intensifying hurricane. Pretty sure hurricane Delta in 2020 was the last Atlantic hurricane with a real pinhole eye. I believe the difference on radar and IR imagery is where the deep convection has wrapped. The deep convection is beginning to swirl the hurricane and the IR is showing where the physics of the beast is setting up. The eye that has cleared out is pinhole. It is concerning that IR Imagery is showing that, despite the fact that radar has not quite caught up. If radar is able to catch up, well really, if the thunderstorms themselves are able to wrap tightly around the eye as to where it is cleared out then we are going to have a potentially catastrophic situation on our hands. I don't use catastrophic lightly either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 There is zero possibility that eye is 20 miles across imo. The eye contracting has been noted for at least two hours. Anyone have a way to measure the distance from eye wall to eye wall? I am curious if sat and radar actually show this or if it just looks that way? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 It's probably a bit premature to judge the Eye size. Eye is still clearing out/obscured and looks slightly elliptical on radar. I'd wait a few more hours to see how it matures. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2023 Author Share Posted August 30, 2023 Eye is also kind of a bizarre ellipse. Not sure what to make of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 58 minutes ago, GaWx said: I see 1896 and 1950 but not 1985 for Cedar Key landfall: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1985.png My source was the wikipedia entry for Cedar Key and they state that 1985 Elena stayed offshore but still generated a damaging storm surge that had a major impact on the town (so no landfall). Also 2020 Eta came in around Cedar Key but damage was slight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: It's probably a bit premature to judge the Eye size. Eye is still clearing out/obscured and looks slightly elliptical on radar. I'd wait a few more hours to see how it matures. Thanks for weighing in. It is always nice to be able to learn from those who are the professionals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 37 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said: When is the next recon scheduled? Kinda surprised they are not overlapping them. There is both an AF flight, and a NOAA flight in Idalia right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, hlcater said: Eye is also kind of a bizarre ellipse. Not sure what to make of that Not actually, as been mentioned earlier there’s been mesovortices rotating around the eye at times. When that happens the eye will appear ragged/rugged but it’s actually not a deterioration. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: On a trip from Alaska to Hawaii on a 180 foot Coast Guard cutter we ran into a storm that was producing 50 foot waves. The ship was rolling so bad you had to tie yourself into your rack to keep from getting tossed out. Even 23 foot seas is no joke. Wasn't it Ivan that produced a 100 foot swell? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Not actually, as been mentioned earlier there’s been mesovortices rotating around the eye at times. When that happens the eye will appear ragged/rugged but it’s actually not a deterioration.We're also at nearly 15k ft beam from Tampa. The mesos are going to stand out more. We can't see the lower vort precip in the LLC of the eyewall. It may be circular given closer range. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Perhaps this is banter, but figured folks here might know the answers to this. I've always found it odd that the NHC will only do forecast predictions at 12 hour intervals, thus often "missing" key data points, like landfall -anyone know the rationale for that? Just look at the 5 pm advisory, which had a forecast for the storm to be up to 115 mph by 2 am tomorrow. However, due to the idiosyncracies of the NHC forecasts, the next published point is 2 pm tomorrow, after landfall when the storm is forecast to be at 85 mph. I don't know why, in situations like this, the NHC doesn't publish intermediate forecasts, i.e., at landfall around 8-9 am tomorrow along the Big Bend area. It's true that their discussion does say, "The 12-hour intensity forecast shows a 100-kt (115 mph) major hurricane. It is imperative to realize that Idalia is expected to continue strengthening beyond that time, possibly close to the 110 kt (125 mph) shown in the previous forecast, before the center reaches land," but how many people are reading the 5th paragraph down in the discussion vs. looking at the track graphics. Another pet peeve - why don't they put the windspeeds on the 12 hour timepoints on the track forecast instead of the inexact S, H, and M designations? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2023 Author Share Posted August 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Not actually, as been mentioned earlier there’s been mesovortices rotating around the eye at times. When that happens the eye will appear ragged/rugged but it’s actually not a deterioration. I disagree. While mesovorts are likely present and can warp the edge of the eye to a degree, think there really is an ellipse. My best guess is due to asymmetry in the convective bursts that we've seen tonight. There's typically only 1 burst ongoing at a time while the other side of the hurricane is "quiet". Not 100% on that one tho and curious to other input if people have it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 00z spaghetti models 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Any one of these in the outer bands could become tornadic: 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Any one of these in the outer bands could become tornadic: I haven't been following there severe threat. Anything show up worth mentioning today on that topic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Master of Disaster said: I haven't been following there severe threat. Anything show up worth mentioning today on that topic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 New center dropsonde says 961 mb. Northeast quad wind is only 92 kts flight level, 80 kts SFMR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: New center dropsonde says 961 mb. Is that another 4mb drop in like 2 hours? WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 10:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 29Location: 27.4°N 84.6°WMoving: N at 18 mphMin pressure: 960 mbMax sustained: 110 mph updated advisory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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