Nibor Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, wkd said: What is your radar source? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Have fun. One of my favorite storm resources. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Here is the radar image, showing wind gusts measured up to 49mph in the last hour. Maximum radar base velocity of 87kt toward the radar and 69kt away from KTBW. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: At the time though it’s a little stretch to go 85 kts from 91 kts from FL winds. That was over 90 min ago too. There was an eyewall dropsonde before NHC said 100mph that measured 98kt winds at 955mb (less than 1000 ft above surface). Suspect that’s what they used. There is now a new dropsonde with 110kt winds about 1700ft above surface (921mb): 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 There has been a dryslot on the western semicircle of the core for much of the late afternoon. But the eastern semicircle looks more like a merger over the past hour. There exist some very intense wrapping cells at present. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 5 minutes ago, gymengineer said: 9 mb pressure drop (965 w/22 kt wind) in a little less than 2 hours. It's actually 968mb at the surface on that sonde... there's just no wind data at the very surface for some reason... so probably good for 967/966mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Close to nowcasting, but still some value from 18z runs imo. Both of the HAFS are reflecting the failure of Idalia to get west of 85.0 and are now showing slightly more eastern solutions. Every inch, foot and mile matters for the angle of approach and the windfield for Wakulla's coast, Tallahassee and others. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, George BM said: It's actually 968mb at the surface on that sonde... there's just no wind data at the very surface for some reason... so probably good for 967/966mb. Whoops, glanced too quick. Thanks for pointing that out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 25 minutes ago, Nibor said: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Have fun. One of my favorite storm resources. I've been using COD radar for a long time but I still can't understand how you get to this radar graphic. What Nexrad should I click on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Pretty crazy how quick convection has managed to wrap around the eyewall just within the last 30 min approx. Looking forward to reports as the evening progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, wkd said: I've been using COD radar for a long time but I still can't understand how you get to this radar graphic. What Nexrad should I click on? subregional..choose off FL then click nexrad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, wkd said: I've been using COD radar for a long time but I still can't understand how you get to this radar graphic. What Nexrad should I click on? Sub regional sectors > Mosaic Radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 TBW radar definitely showing convection wrapping around now. Yeah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Inner core structure is extremely healthy. Column is vertically stacked as evident with the noticeable outflow expanding across all 4 quads. Ventilation looks uninhibited, Idalia is about to tank rapidly. Could see a very steep, very sudden drop in pressure soon. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Lightning firing all around the eyewall, looks like another round of intensification is under way or beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Radar is so degraded from that distance but it looks like we have twin mesovorticies rotating around the eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Some impressive surge flooding vicinity Ft. Myers earlier today. Tampa Bay should see some notable water rise later tonight to around pre-dawn tomorrow. LOTS of water going to be piling into Appalachee Bay between mid-night and dawn tomorrow. Fort Myers photos. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 the 18Z HAFS trending back E the 18Z GFS came back slighty E also. Feeling better about Tallahassee now. Basically seems it will come ashore one the best places if you want to minimize damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Plenty of time left over hot water to get to CAT 3. May even sneak up close to 4 as it approaches the Coast. If it doesn’t, it certainly won’t be because of a lack of an energy source given the record high GoM water temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Lighting blowing up in the eyewall again the last 30 minutes... Seems like that's always been a good indicator of intensification.Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 hour ago, wkd said: Appreciate the response but I don't see how this applies to the current situation. Hatteras and also the Capes in New England will certainly experience more adverse effects from coastal storms due to their eastward location. But how does that apply to the current situation in the Gulf? I was just speaking in general, but the area near Cedar Key is tucked in, which is probably why they have never had a major strike...kind of a mini Georiga. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Brand new dropsonde says 965 mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Latest center pass is at 965 mb, a 7 mb drop in about 2.5 hours (from the first pass). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Steep pressure gradient and beefy rain rates in the northern eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 9 minutes ago, dan11295 said: the 18Z HAFS trending back E the 18Z GFS came back slighty E also. Feeling better about Tallahassee now. Basically seems it will come ashore one the best places if you want to minimize damage. Maximum surge will be basically be coming into nature preserves and marshes. Uninhabited, so yes could not ask for better landfall location as far as surge threat to life and property. As center moves onshore and winds spread inland that is going to be a big problem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 110 mph at the next advisory?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Look at the OOCL Southampton charging across the Gulf directly in front of Idalia. With a 16 kt forward speed, aren't they kind of driving directly into a strengthening hurricane? Only boat in the area.Any marine experts out there able to see how much of a gamble they're taking?https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:689722/zoom:6Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: 110 mph at the next advisory?? at least that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Recon reports show Idalia is moving a little east of due north now. Last advisory was due north (360) we'll see what 8pm and 11 pm show but IMO by 11:00 advisory should be on at least a 10 degree heading. I think recon is picking up on the expected turn to the NNE by tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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