lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 About 18 hours away from landfall give or take. 2mb drop in pressure per hour puts this thing around 940mb by landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Euro also right where HAFS-A and HAFS-B are. near and just SE of Newport FL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Euro edged west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 I’m down in Orlando for this one. We were supposed to fly back tomorrow morning but we moved it to Friday as a precaution. Only expecting some outer bands here but there’s at least a marginal tornado threat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Water temp at this buoy 112m NW of Tampa is 88F. This is about 2 to 3* above the August average for that location. Combined with the low shear and upper level trough enhancement, pretty ideal setup up until landfall. Not sure I would expect any weakening. In fact, this looks pretty ideal for some explosive strengthening tonight. Perhaps more so than even forecasted. Not looking too good. If we see anymore trends west TLH could see some wild winds. NDBC - Station 42036 Recent Data (noaa.gov) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Please keep the banter where it belongs 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 With the intermediate 2pm advisory from NHC, the storm surge forecast from Wakulla coastline has been upped to the 7 to 11 foot range. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 It's worth following Chris's account on Twitter. He is in charge of the Wisconsin mesonet and a form lightning scientist for Vailasia (sp?) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Looking like all systems go with not much to slow down a "RI until landfall" scenario. Going to be some insane tree damages wherever this comes ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 22 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: About 18 hours away from landfall give or take. 2mb drop in pressure per hour puts this thing around 940mb by landfall. ~975mb seems to be a a common spot where RI starts. Happened with Micheal, IDA, Laura, Dorian and too many other for me to list. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, Amped said: ~975mb seems to be a a common spot where RI starts. Happened with Micheal, IDA, Laura, Dorian and too many other for me to list. 12Z Intensity models drop pressure to 945-955 range at landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 I know the focus in on FL but the 12Z runs are really bad news for GA. Valdosta and Savannah could be looking at direct hits and metro Atlanta would get alot more weather (depending upon how bad the west side of the cane is) than it appeared 24 hours ago. Atlanta has a huge tree canopy so high winds and heavy rain could lead to alot of power outages. Also, the entire GA coast would be on the dirty side and have onshore action along the barrier islands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 It kinda looks like dry air is being entrained into the circulation from the south. Maybe I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said: It kinda looks like dry air is being entrained into the circulation from the south. Maybe I am wrong. Definitely some dry air off to the S and W and getting pulled in a bit.... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 At this point Idalia only has about 18 hours left over water. Not much time for changes in track. The good news is there is some leeway with the landfall point relative to the 11 am NHC track in order to avoid major coastal impacts on more heavily populated areas. Biggest threat at this point is if the turn NNE gets delayed and Idalia ends up toward the central/west side of Apalachee Bay. Not really worried about is going back more SE at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 One never wants to "wish" a major hurricane on anyone, but if one thinks about the greater good, it's a bit lucky that this storm looks like it will hit the Big Bend area, the least populated coastal section of Florida, as per the graphic below. Still sucks for them, obviously. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Definitely some dry air off to the S and W and getting pulled in a bit.... Absolutely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Looking at impacts for NC, particularly central NC. Getting in range of high-res models. NAM 3K is bullish on some heavy rain bands setting up, particularly Thursday morning thru mid-day. Could get pretty gusty as well during those bands. Most of central NC in flood watch now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 6 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: Absolutely not. On visible sat imagery then why is there a clear air inflow channel coming in from the south. Continuing west around the circulation and into the center. I am not doubting you. But I am asking why there is a clear air channel entering the circulation of that's not dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, Master of Disaster said: On visible sat imagery then why is there a clear air inflow channel coming in from the south. Continuing west around the circulation and into the center. I am not doubting you. But I am asking why there is a clear air channel entering the circulation of that's not dry air. Yep and you can see it's inhibiting the NW side a bit as it wraps in. Good news for FL as it may delay any quick strengthening and we are less than 18 hrs from landfall at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 15 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said: On visible sat imagery then why is there a clear air inflow channel coming in from the south. Continuing west around the circulation and into the center. I am not doubting you. But I am asking why there is a clear air channel entering the circulation of that's not dry air. The dry air is not being pushed into the core or eyewall of the storm. That would require shear, the hurricane will moisten the part of the storm the dry air got into with no issue. It's actually a bad thing in this case, because it means convective banding won't be able to wrap around and start an ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Yep and you can see it's inhibiting the NW side a bit as it wraps in. Good news for FL as it may delay any quick strengthening and we are less than 18 hrs from landfall at this point. Again, no. There isn't any shear to push the dry air into the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Yep and you can see it's inhibiting the NW side a bit as it wraps in. Good news for FL as it may delay any quick strengthening and we are less than 18 hrs from landfall at this point. The water vapor loop doesn’t show any exceptionally dry air around and even if so, without shear to direct it into the core it would probably stay separated. It also makes sense that with air rising fast inside the hurricane it would sink/dry up away from it. The NW side looks “inhibited” because the outflow/ventilation channel is to its NE. It’s not a sign of shear knocking away at the storm. 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Nice hot tower in the western eyewall on both IR and radar (note that eyewall is very far away from radar right now so you are looking high up in the storm with the beam.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 The visible satellite just continues to look more and more symmetrical by the minute. COC still hugging 85W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Why is there not a plane in the storm right now, in advance of the crucial, day-before-landfall 5 p.m. advisory? Why does NHC still have a track that doesn't/barely includes Tallahassee/St. George even as all three hurricane models and the GFS show landfall there? I mean, I never thought I'd be Criticize the NHC Guy, but I really don't get it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, beanskip said: Why is there not a plane in the storm right now, in advance of the crucial, day-before-landfall 5 p.m. advisory? Why does NHC still have a track that doesn't/barely includes Tallahassee/St. George even as all three hurricane models and the GFS show landfall there? I mean, I never thought I'd be Criticize the NHC Guy, but I really don't get it. Budget cuts at the Air Force? Only so much money to spend on recon flights per calendar year. They got to stay within their budget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now