Hurricane Idalia

[drstuess]

CIMSS AI RI probabilities increasing as expected...

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[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

12Z HAFS B basically goes right over TLH, landfall on Dog Island/Carrabelle from the looks of it. 

12z is out on Tropical Tidbits? I don’t see it yet. 

[DDweatherman]

8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

12Z HAFS B basically goes right over TLH, landfall on Dog Island/Carrabelle from the looks of it. 

Blame my buddy who sent me 06z when I'm mobile on a job site  you're correct. Didn't realize 6z was that far left. 933mb at LF. 

[hudsonvalley21]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

12z is out on Tropical Tidbits? I don’t see it yet. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, hudsonvalley21 said:

 

Thanks—I was looking for the hurricane models: HWRF, HAFS A, HAFS B they come out a little later. 

[beanskip]

Gracious -- the CMC goes way west -- all the way to Apalachicola and then WEST of Tallahassee - I mean if this verified it would be pretty ugly for the NHC as this is WELL outside of the cone from their 11 a.m. advisory. 

[Brian5671]

CMC is not a great model for tropical events

[buckeyefan1]

Just now, beanskip said:

Gracious -- the CMC goes way west -- all the way to Apalachicola and then WEST of Tallahassee - I mean if this verified it would be pretty ugly for the NHC as this is WELL outside of the cone from their 11 a.m. advisory. 

There’s a weakness showing that allows it to come north. Interesting day ahead 

[NorthHillsWx]

This thing is like a carbon copy of Michael’s progression to this point. Go back and rewatch a satellite loop of hurricane Michael from its birth as a depression to when it passed west of key west. The resemblance is scary 

[beanskip]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

CMC is not a great model for tropical events

Yeah I know.

I guess my point is, when's the last time you can remember an NHC cone where at 30 hours the CMC is 100 miles outside the cone and the GFS is outside it or just straddling its edge?

 

[NeffsvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Yeah I know.

I guess my point is, when's the last time you can remember an NHC cone where at 30 hours the CMC is 100 miles outside the cone and the GFS is outside it or just straddling its edge?

 

 

NHC possibly thinking that some land interaction is going to pull it a bit east? Not sure that sort of nuance is captured in models.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[hawkeye_wx]

I'm surprised they don't have another recon plane in there now.  NHC's schedule says there will be a new plane in the storm every three hours, beginning at 2030z this afternoon.

[Nibor]

New towers firing along the western part of the eye wall.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like HAFS-A and HAFS-B have landfall in Apalachee Bay just near and SE of Newport FL.

[beanskip]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like HAFS-A and HAFS-B have landfall in Apalachee Bay just near and SE of Newport FL.

And HMON right on top of their positions -- remarkable agreement. 

EDIT: And the HWRF also in virtually the exact same spot  -- slight timing differences, but tracks are the same. 

[jerseyshorewxguy]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

And HMON right on top of their positions -- remarkable agreement. 

EDIT: And the HWRF also in virtually the exact same spot  -- slight timing differences, but tracks are the same. 

St Mark's bullseye. Wonder if the lighthouse survives.

[jpljr77]

7 minutes ago, Nibor said:

New towers firing along the western part of the eye wall.

Does anyone have a good webcam in the Keys? Looks like they're getting some action.

[dan11295]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

And HMON right on top of their positions -- remarkable agreement. 

EDIT: And the HWRF also in virtually the exact same spot  -- slight timing differences, but tracks are the same. 

I thought all these models are based off the GFS?

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[NavarreDon]

https://x.com/nwstallahassee/status/1696544257451216896?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


.

[Eskimo Joe]

Definitely an eye poking out. 

[hawkeye_wx]

We are now getting a nice burst of lightning in the eyewall.  It's really looking good.

[Master of Disaster]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

We are now getting a nice burst of lightning in the eyewall.  It's really looking good.

That was gonna be my exact question. If lightning was occuring in the eye wall. 

[MattPetrulli]

Could be faulty radar data, but northern eyewall may have temporarily opened up. Towers firing on the southern eyewall will probably fix this issue. BTW, BYX, and IR all show some sort of weakness in the northern eyewall. That being said, the VHTs on the southern eyewall are cranking and this will probably be solved quickly. 

[marsman]

Another Tornado Warning for the Marco Island, FL area, this one until 2pm. 

edit: another one just north, covering most of the Collier County coast. 

earlier the local news station was on scene in Ft. Myers Beach, i would say about 6-10" of water on the roads.

[Doc Jon]

Anyone notice all that lightning cropping up in the core of Idalia?

[MANDA]

Solid core developing now.  TPC forecast of 125 mph landfall looks solid.  I'd say landfall is before daybreak tomorrow, a little sooner that TPC 11am Advisory suggests.