Hurricane Idalia

[beanskip]

6 minutes ago, SnowBeau said:

The 5AM NHC forecast didn’t have Idalia hitting 84.8W until 5PM, yet it’s already there at 8AM.  Just a wobble, or is that significant?

If you look at the track of the HAFS it actually has a bit of a bend in it -- starts at 84.7 then gets all the way out to 85.5 before turning back. Not saying that's right, but will be interesting to see if a westerly component materializes. 

[cptcatz]

SE eye dropsonde recorded 63 kt at the surface with max flight level wind of 65 kt.  Where is NHC getting 80 mph from?  Seems like even calling it a hurricane is a stretch based on measured winds.

[WxWatcher007]

 

Just now, cptcatz said:

SE eye dropsonde recorded 63 kt at the surface with max flight level wind of 65 kt.  Where is NHC getting 80 mph from?  Seems like even calling it a hurricane is a stretch based on measured winds.

I think it’s a hurricane, but the winds on recon haven’t been that impressive. Yet. 

[beanskip]

6z Euro moves just enough west to be a killer for Apalachee Bay. Looks like a hit around the Jefferson/Taylor line based on Tidbits maps, but if someone has  more detail, that would be appreciated.

This also is close enough to Tallahassee that hurricane force winds will surely impact the capital city -- you can't even believe how many trees will come down. 

[schoeppeya]

To me, it looks like Idalia still doesn’t have most of its energy focused around the eyewall and think we need to see that bigger outer band really contract before we see winds increase and pressures start dropping. All the feeder bands are currently working into this band rather than the inner eyewall.

[jerseyshorewxguy]

My son is at Florida State and they have been very good with the updates---he lived through Hurricane Sandy and 17 days without power -- hopefully the power outages aren't that bad.  St Mark's nature preserve is going to get hammered.

[Radtechwxman]

Dr. Greg Kostel on TWC just said they're flying in there now and finding steady pressures. Something is holding Idalia back right now. It's over the Loop Current for the next 12hrs or so where the highest OHC is. If the rapid intensification doesn't occur then, then the lower end of guidance probably going to verify with a strong cat 2 borderline cat 3. Regardless, still going to be a problem where it landfalls with storm surge and obviously destructive winds. 

[Seminole]

25 minutes ago, beanskip said:

6z Euro moves just enough west to be a killer for Apalachee Bay. Looks like a hit around the Jefferson/Taylor line based on Tidbits maps, but if someone has  more detail, that would be appreciated.

This also is close enough to Tallahassee that hurricane force winds will surely impact the capital city -- you can't even believe how many trees will come down. 

I have seen pictures of Killearn Estates after Hurricane Kate in 1985 and the roads were impassable. Oak tree after oak tree across the roads. Hemine, Irma and Michael were child's play compared to what Kate did to Tallahassee. 

[ROOSTA]

For posterity and humanity..."BRIGHTO"

[WxWatcher007]

There’s your 69-70kt SFMR.

[so_whats_happening]

21 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Dr. Greg Kostel on TWC just said they're flying in there now and finding steady pressures. Something is holding Idalia back right now. It's over the Loop Current for the next 12hrs or so where the highest OHC is. If the rapid intensification doesn't occur then, then the lower end of guidance probably going to verify with a strong cat 2 borderline cat 3. Regardless, still going to be a problem where it landfalls with storm surge and obviously destructive winds. 

This is definitely a reasonable take structure doesn't seem fully stacked yet. Forward speed may be hindering it a bit since it can't get it structure setup? 3 seems to be the upper limit at this point unless we get heck of a surprise. Definitely trying its best to get organized quick though.

[Covidea]

 

23 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Dr. Greg Kostel on TWC just said they're flying in there now and finding steady pressures. Something is holding Idalia back right now. It's over the Loop Current for the next 12hrs or so where the highest OHC is. If the rapid intensification doesn't occur then, then the lower end of guidance probably going to verify with a strong cat 2 borderline cat 3. Regardless, still going to be a problem where it landfalls with storm surge and obviously destructive winds. 

Yep - They're in there now.

[so_whats_happening]

It is worrisome though that a rather large eye could open up rather quickly this afternoon into the evening during what is usually a nice uptick in thunderstorm activity. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The third recon pass this morning is also 978 mb, so Idalia remains in a holding pattern.  Landfall is only 24 hours away, so it will really need to step on the gas later today.

[cptcatz]

So the strongest winds are in the NE eyewall.  Flight level recorded 71 kts, dropsonde recorded 68 kt at surface, although it had some mid-80's in between.  Still not overly impressive.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The third recon pass this morning is also 978 mb, so Idalia remains in a holding pattern.  Landfall is only 24 hours away, so it will really need to step on the gas later today.

A lot of the intensity models haven't strayed from strong 2 borderline 3.

[ROOSTA]

Regardless of intensity at LF. Surge will still be the biggest takeaway. 
I'm concerned with the quick spin-ups which will be prolific and during the night for my area.
SURGE, WINDS, TORNADO'S
-----
GRLEVEL product- Use the Marker, place it in the center of the eye, then overlay with the range ring.
Last dozen or so scans A SLIGHT W of due N track. 

[NERMAN]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A lot of the intensity models haven't strayed from strong 2 borderline 3.

HWRF, HMON and HAFS all still showing a strong Cat 3 to weak Cat 4 as of 6z. They've been rock-steady. 

[Amped]

10 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

This is definitely a reasonable take structure doesn't seem fully stacked yet. Forward speed may be hindering it a bit since it can't get it structure setup? 3 seems to be the upper limit at this point unless we get heck of a surprise. Definitely trying its best to get organized quick though.

 Hurricane Ida had a similar pressure 24 hrs from landfall and it easily made Cat4. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, NERMAN said:

HWRF, HMON and HAFS all still showing a strong Cat 3 to weak Cat 4 as of 6z. They've been rock-steady. 

HWRF and HMON aren't my go tos really. HAFS I don't have a lot of experience with. 

[WxWatcher007]

HWRF is being retired by HAFS, but I think they’re all excellent. There’s just a lot of uncertainty on where this tops out. 

[PackGrad05]

6Z GEFS and EPS are almost identical and tightly packed.  

[so_whats_happening]

7 minutes ago, Amped said:

 Hurricane Ida had a similar pressure 24 hrs from landfall and it easily made Cat4. 

I agree including michael they all had similar upbringings. The difference may come down to structure those were near or at hurricane status by the time it was crossing cuba this was still a developing tropical storm. That little bit of difference could easily mean a slightly lower upper value given very similar backgrounds.

[NavarreDon]

No expert here but looking at the water vapor, it looks like dry air might still be feeding into the SW side of Idalia?


.

[Radtechwxman]

Satellite presentation improving. Idalia may just be making some internal changes before taking off. Starting to get deeper convection wrapping on western side now which has been severely lacking. Definitely seeing signs of eye trying to pop as well. 

[WxWatcher007]

Closed eye now per recon

 

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 14:29Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Idalia
Storm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 25 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 13:30:53Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.29N 84.85W
B. Center Fix Location: 177 statute miles (285 km) to the WNW (297°) from Havana, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,931m (9,616ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 978mb (28.88 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 310° at 10kts (From the NW at 12mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 45kts (51.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the SW (217°) of center fix at 13:28:40Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 317° at 51kts (From the NW at 58.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SW (222°) of center fix at 13:27:46Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 70kts (80.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix at 13:34:45Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 163° at 71kts (From the SSE at 81.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 13:35:59Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,064m (10,052ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center at 13:35:59Z

[Eskimo Joe]

Winds appear to be catching up to pressure falls.

 

 

[Nibor]

The hurricane models hwrf hmon hafs a/b all really show deepening this afternoon. I think the forecast is on track. 

[WxWatcher007]

You can see it in the dropsondes. Especially the latest NE eyewall one. 

[NERMAN]

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The hurricane models hwrf hmon hafs a/b all really show deepening this afternoon. I think the forecast is on track. 

Yep, all showing Big Bend landfall. Euro caved to the west. I'd like to know which intensity models aren't showing this strength to compare.