Prospero Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 44 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Yes Ian evacs were issued for most TB coastal counties on 9/26. Really surprised Pinellas County hasn’t pulled the trigger yet, lots of folks at high risk even with current track. MacDill AFB just went mandatory so would expect Hills and Pinellas to follow soon for Zone A. Oh, it is going to happen soon. I just had lunch on the water at a Marina in South Pinellas County and even though pleasant right now, everybody knows we will not be eating lunch anywhere in the area tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarakenny Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 From Pinellas County: Anticipating possible life-threatening storm surge as Tropical Storm Idalia is forecast to become a major hurricane, Pinellas County has ordered the mandatory evacuation of Zone A, including all mobile homes, effective tonight, Monday, Aug. 28, at 7 p.m. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 TPA airport closing tomorrow seems a bit premature to me 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: How have you been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 I agree, Tampa area is about as likely to just get some light rain and winds from outer bands as it is significant impacts. That being said this is going to happen quickly so hard to argue with being prepared. ….. this was supposed to be in response to the TPA closing down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Agnes in 1972, I was 11 and this was my second hurricane experience. I remember our favorite seafood restaurant was destroyed on Treasure Island. We had 5ft breaker waves in our driveway in the Pink Streets of St Petersburg after my Mom decided not to evacuate for some small storm. I remember the news calling it a 10ft storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: TPA airport closing tomorrow seems a bit premature to me Workers living in Zone A or B need to prepare which leave the airport understaffed and risky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, Prospero said: Workers living in Zone A or B need to prepare which leave the airport understaffed and risky. Airlines are going to be proactively cancelling flights anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Airlines are going to be proactively cancelling flights anyway. Exactly. Airlines have cancelled for snowfall and not one flake stuck to the pavement.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Airlines are going to be proactively cancelling flights anyway. What pilot wants to land in TS strength winds plus turbulence flying through bands? I'd say TPA closing on the day a storm is predicted to be in the area is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NERMAN Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Hurricane models held landfall intensity at 12Z from strong Cat 3 to low-end Cat 4 tracking toward Big Bend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 28Location: 21.2°N 85.1°WMoving: N at 8 mphMin pressure: 987 mbMax sustained: 70 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, Prospero said: What pilot wants to land in TS strength winds plus turbulence flying through bands? Probably more than you'd think. But airlines don't cancel flights in situations like this only for safety. It's also to prevent planes from getting stuck there and messing up the rest of their network. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, NERMAN said: Hurricane models held landfall intensity at 12Z from strong Cat 3 to low-end Cat 4 tracking toward Big Bend Last year on the morning Ian hit Florida Tampa Bay was in the center of the cone. Folks in Sanibel Island and Ft. Myers were relaxing thinking it was going to miss them to the west. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 12Z Euro little later landfall vs 0Z and quite a bit stronger 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Just now, GaWx said: 12Z Euro little later landfall vs 0Z and quite a bit stronger Tiny little jog west vs. 0z but (thankfully) not following the hurricane models which would likely result in my untimely death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 minute ago, GaWx said: 12Z Euro little later landfall vs 0Z and quite a bit stronger Expected this given the 0Z was off with intensity this morning. Any shift in landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NERMAN Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, Prospero said: Last year on the morning Ian hit Florida Tampa Bay was in the center of the cone. Folks in Sanibel Island and Ft. Myers were relaxing thinking it was going to miss them to the west. Yep, they should have evacuated all of those low lying areas in advance. The loss of life particularly in Ft Myers could have been avoided. But I also remember reading a lot of the locals refused to leave. I mean, they had a major tracking toward them for days. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line_and_wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 FEMA did a study and report a few years ago about phased evacuations. There are 5 parts of the process and like 15 critical factors that determine compliance with an evac order. Some of which are funds available. Family locations. Previous experience and other things. If I can find the report I'll link it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Last year on the morning Ian hit Florida Tampa Bay was in the center of the cone. Folks in Sanibel Island and Ft. Myers were relaxing thinking it was going to miss them to the west.Sanibel Island isn’t protected by Pirates.. I kid about the pirates but there has to be a reason the TB area gets hit directly or even slightly indirectly by a Cane once every 100 years. This could be that one time, right now every indication is that it isn’t and it is well off the coast when it passes by and lands up in the peninsula. We had this conversation with Ian and at least one Hurricane every year going back for forever when the early models put TB in the cone. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 56 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: How have you been? Good Howard! Just not posting as much. Always have a little time when there's going to be a big one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, Seminole said: Expected this given the 0Z was off with intensity this morning. Any shift in landfall? 12Z Euro is ~20 miles NW of 0Z Euro landfall, which was ~30 miles NW of Cedar Key. So, now ~50 miles NW of Cedar Key. It landfalls at ~10 AM Wednesday vs ~8AM Wednesday. And as I said significantly stronger with ~970 mb on 12Z Euro vs 987 mb on 0Z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Just now, GaWx said: ~20 miles NW of 0Z landfall, which was ~30 miles NW of Cedar Key. So, now ~50 miles NW of Cedar Key. It landfalls at ~10 AM Wednesday vs ~8AM Wednesday. Thank you. Given my proximity I am hanging on every model update. Going to decide tomorrow to ride it out or bug out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retrobuc Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Ok, need your help. I'm a lurker whose read this board for awhile. I have niece who moved from PA to St Pete on Saturday and this is her welcome! She doesnt know if she should leave her apartment, she is on the border of evac zones A&B. I said she should, but dont want to overreact. Thoughts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z Euro little later landfall vs 0Z and quite a bit stronger Still has it at 983 off cape fear so. Ot too far from my backyard although I don't expect much wind impact with that track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 18 minutes ago, NERMAN said: Hurricane models held landfall intensity at 12Z from strong Cat 3 to low-end Cat 4 tracking toward Big Bend I would wager 931 MB on the HWRF and 926 MB on the HAFS-B (both FH051) are not "strong Cat 3 to low-end Cat 4" verbatim. BTW, is there any other way to pronounce the new hurricane model besides "half-ass"? I can't think of one. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Just now, Retrobuc said: Ok, need your help. I'm a lurker whose read this board for awhile. I have niece who moved from PA to St Pete on Saturday and this is her welcome! She doesnt know if she should leave her apartment, she is on the border of evac zones A&B. I said she should, but dont want to overreact. Thoughts? My understanding is that Zone A in Pinellas is under mandatory evac order. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Retrobuc said: Ok, need your help. I'm a lurker whose read this board for awhile. I have niece who moved from PA to St Pete on Saturday and this is her welcome! She doesnt know if she should leave her apartment, she is on the border of evac zones A&B. I said she should, but dont want to overreact. Thoughts? What's the complex made of and how far is it from the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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