Hurricane Idalia

[SnowenOutThere]

11 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Nice sunset right now on Cozumel:

 

Sorta off topic but that is an amazing sunset on the live stream right now. 

[SnowenOutThere]

For something more on topic I wonder if the recent convective blowup over the core could be an actual indicator of strengthening or just arrested development. Heres a tweet and link to an article on arrested development. IF this isnt arrested development then things could get pretty interesting tonight

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/127/1/1520-0493_1999_127_0132_atcwae_2.0.co_2.xml

[WxSynopsisDavid]

10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

For something more on topic I wonder if the recent convective blowup over the core could be an actual indicator of strengthening or just arrested development. Heres a tweet and link to an article on arrested development. IF this isnt arrested development then things could get pretty interesting tonight

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/127/1/1520-0493_1999_127_0132_atcwae_2.0.co_2.xml

That link is for TS Franklin, not TS Idalia.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Pretty far north here, but it’s also the COAMPS. Opposite of the direction the others have moved

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

That link is for TS Franklin, not TS Idalia.

I’m aware but same principle for both. Franklin was just a good recent example.

[Rtd208]

 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I’m aware but same principle for both. Franklin was just a good recent example.

Disagree, Idalia does not even have an established CDO yet so what's happening tonight is not in relation to CCC. Idalia's issue is shear ATM. Once convection can stay consistent and shear/minimal dry air can abate, this thing takes off. Pretty much...the vertical column is not stacked yet and that is Idalia's hinderance in the short term.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

Really don't want this thing to take it's time moving ashore in those warm SST's. Not a great trend to have in this juncture. However...only real silver lining with a slower speed is it will increase the likelihood of an internal process such as an Eyewall Replacement Cycle being induced. Current forecast, showing Idalia moving ashore at a faster speed, does not support internal processes happening. 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Rtd208]

 

[BYG Jacob]

About that shear

[NavarreDon]

https://x.com/treycejoneswx/status/1695944488068186158?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA

https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1695972446049112416?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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[WxWatcher007]

That buoy is displaying a legit pressure fall. Looking at that, IR, and most importantly radar, it looks like Idalia is trying to take this latest mesovortex and turn it into the beginnings of an inner core. 

 

The longer the convective towers can fire absent disruptive shear and dry air intrusion, the more likely it’ll be able to go from mesovortex in a broader circulation to nascent inner core. Seeing convection try to rotate upshear on radar is a meaningful piece of data. 

[dbullsfan]

Am I crazy to think that when that 1:30 Recon flight goes through they find Idalia has become a Hurricane. She is blowing up tonight and I’m not seeing anything that’s gonna slow that down in the next 4 hours.


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[BYG Jacob]

 

 

[Normandy]

Not crazy at all to presume a cane when recons gets there.  It’s very clearly in a RI cycle now

[WxSynopsisDavid]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That buoy is displaying a legit pressure fall. Looking at that, IR, and most importantly radar, it looks like Idalia is trying to take this latest mesovortex and turn it into the beginnings of an inner core. 

 

The longer the convective towers can fire absent disruptive shear and dry air intrusion, the more likely it’ll be able to go from mesovortex in a broader circulation to nascent inner core. Seeing convection try to rotate upshear on radar is a meaningful piece of data. 

I agree, this is likely the beginning of an established inner core being developed. Very impressive to see this right now.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

[WxWatcher007]

Just a really cool loop to watch

[WxSynopsisDavid]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just a really cool loop to watch

Right at the end of the loop, you can see that the lightning activity starts to ramp up and circles around the core, noticeable ring like feature. I have only seen that with systems that are beginning an RI process or systems that have an RI underway.

[schoeppeya]

Getting salty

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, schoeppeya said:

Getting salty

Not good, this falls in line with the hurricane models that have been on the higher-end of the intensity forecast.

[tiger_deF]

Looks like Idalia is forming a potent and relatively tiny core. Will be interesting to see if it will collapse like Delta's or give way to a period of rapid intensification. All interests on the Florida gulf coast and coastal Southeastern states should be watching very closely. 

[BYG Jacob]

20 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Getting salty

Here we go again.

[Boston Bulldog]

Wow, it looks like all systems are go tonight. Very interested in what recon shows regarding the character of this developing core.

60mph and 992mb.

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Idalia's center has become embedded beneath a large burst of deep
convection, with overshooting cloud-top temperatures as cold as -82
degrees Celsius.  NOAA buoy 42056, located just to the east of the
center, has reported maximum 1-minute sustained winds as high as 45
kt within the past hour or two.  The anemometer height of the buoy
is 4 meters, so converting the wind to a standard 10-meter height
indicates that Idalia's intensity is now up to at least 50 kt, which
is the initial intensity for this advisory.  An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Idalia in a few
hours.

The center has been moving erratically since earlier today, and may
have even sagged southward, pulled toward the recently developed
deep convection.  A northward motion is expected to begin on Monday
and continue through Tuesday as Idalia moves between a mid-level
trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and strengthening ridging
over the Greater Antilles.  After 48 hours, a gradual turn toward
the northeast and then east is anticipated due to a deeper trough
that is expected to swing across the Great Lakes.  No significant
changes were required for the updated NHC track forecast compared
to the previous prediction.  The spread among the track models
remains relatively low, and the official track continues to lie
closest to the ECMWF and HCCA consensus aid.

Idalia is sitting over very warm waters of about 30 degrees
Celsius, and when it moves northward, it will be over the even
deeper warm waters of the Loop Current in 24-36 hours.  Although
the trough over the Gulf could impart some shear over the system,
this is likely to be offset by upper-level diffluence.  Idalia has
already strengthened more than anticipated, and the environment
looks ripe for additional intensification, possibly rapid.  The NHC
intensity forecast has been increased and lies at the upper bound of
the guidance.  The new prediction now shows a 95-kt hurricane over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but it should be stressed
that additional strengthening to major hurricane strength is
becoming increasingly likely before Idalia reaches the Gulf coast
of Florida.  Interests within the storm surge and hurricane watch
areas are urged to prepare for possible significant impacts and
monitor future updates to the forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane by the time it reaches
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and it could be near or at major
hurricane strength when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida.  The
risk continues to increase for a life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of Florida
and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday.  Storm
surge and hurricane watches are in effect for portions of the
west coast of Florida and the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast and
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Scattered flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of
the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern
Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall may
lead to flash flooding across portions of the Carolinas Wednesday
into Thursday.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far
western Cuba late Monday.  Heavy rainfall is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 19.8N  85.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 20.7N  85.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 22.2N  85.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 24.2N  84.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 26.8N  84.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 29.6N  82.8W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/0000Z 32.0N  80.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  01/0000Z 34.3N  73.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 34.4N  67.8W   50 KT  60 MPH

[CheeselandSkies]

Quote

...IDALIA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...

 

[WxWatcher007]

Recon is now in the air and headed toward Idalia.

[Jrlg1181]

This certainly does appear to already be a cane, would be a shock if it's not upgraded at the next update... Interested to see what the incoming recon data shows.

[TPAwx]

Up from last advisory