Hurricane Idalia

[cptcatz]

12z EPS with a significant shift south and east. Got a bunch of members going right through Tampa Bay and even more just to the north which would push the surge right into the Bay. 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I was here in 1972 with Hurricane Agnes and we had a ten foot storm surge even with Agnes some miles out into the Gulf.

Tropical Storm Debbie flooded some businesses in downtown Gulfport, Florida. Here's a night clip of the Gulfport Casino showing where Beach Blvd meets Gulf Blvd during Debbie:

 

Regarding that Tweet assuming he is excluding both the Big Bend and Tampa, themselves, when he says "between", it would be extremely difficult though not impossible for Idalia to cross the coast in that stretch because most guidance shows it still moving NNE at that latitude and that part of the coast is angled NNE. October, when headings are more commonly NE to E, is usually a more dangerous period for that to happen.

[SnowGoose69]

40 minutes ago, Amped said:

Interesting to note that all the hurricane models blow this up to a Cat 3/4.

 

I've said here a few times last 3 years...on anything entering the GOM just go on higher end most of the time...we've had a handful of cases where that failed but for the most part its worked.  I'd be surprised if this did not get to 105-110 at least...I'd stay away from Cat 3 or 4 for now but would be far from surprised if it did 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

51 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d take this to mean that we did get valuable storm structure data for 12z, but much more will be coming in subsequent model suites with high altitude and low level recon continuing through the day and evening. 
 

 

Did NOAA 9 G-IV have a problem, it looks like it turned around looking at TT

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

12z EPS with a significant shift south and east. Got a bunch of members going right through Tampa Bay and even more just to the north which would push the surge right into the Bay. 

So, the 12Z EPS has 4 members out of 51 (8%) with a landfall south of the Big Bend and N of Tampa Bay, the most dangerous track for Tampa Bay. That's nothing to take lightly but there's lots of hope it won't happen as the odds are quite low based on this.

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

12z EPS with a significant shift south and east. Got a bunch of members going right through Tampa Bay and even more just to the north which would push the surge right into the Bay. 

 

The UKIE looked to be on the south side of the big bend area too when I tried extrapolating it , mostly in that east side of those Euro ensemble packing area

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Regarding that Tweet assuming he is excluding both the Big Bend and Tampa, themselves, when he says "between", it would be extremely difficult though not impossible for Idalia to cross the coast in that stretch because most guidance shows it still moving NNE at that latitude and that part of the coast is angled NNE. October, when headings are more commonly NE to E, is usually a more dangerous period for that to happen.

I was a JB subscriber for Charley, he predicted landfall farther S than TPA area because of angle of approach and land interaction, he was correct, it seemed to happen again with Ian.  If this is forecast to almost parallel the Florida coast I wouldn't be surprised if it made landfall further S than the models would have suggested.  Edit to add- Euro ensemble paths a bit less oblique than prior mentioned storms, so it may not go S of models.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The UKIE looked to be on the south side of the big bend area too when I tried extrapolating it , mostly in that east side of those Euro ensemble packing area

The 12Z UKMET was about same as 0Z with landfall closer to the center part of FL Big Bend (~50 miles NW of Cedar Key) moving NNE.

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Did NOAA 9 G-IV have a problem, it looks like it turned around looking at TT

It looks fine to me. This is the only active flight. 

[Tallis Rockwell]

I don't like the strengthening trend with these models...

in less than a day, the models went from a low end hurricane landfall to a cat 3-4 landfall

[cptcatz]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

So, the 12Z EPS has 4 members out of 51 (8%) with a landfall south of the Big Bend and N of Tampa Bay, the most dangerous track for Tampa Bay. That's nothing to take lightly but there's lots of hope it won't happen as the odds are quite low based on this.

I gotta think even if it makes landfall around the Cedar Key area, with it forecast to be a large and east heavy storm, that would still bring in significant surge into Tampa Bay. The Tampa folks here can tell you they get surge flooding from anything more than a small breeze.  

[hlcater]

One thing to notice over the past several hours is the transition from spotty and isolated thunderstorm activity to a coherent and organized curved band that is now wrapping around to the south side and over the center. The purple X is roughly where the center is on visible and on radar data. There is some moderate northly shear being imparted on the system today but the improvement in convective pattern suggests that Idalia has continued steady intensification.

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I gotta think even if it makes landfall around the Cedar Key area, with it forecast to be a large and east heavy storm, that would still bring in significant surge into Tampa Bay. The Tampa folks here can tell you they get surge flooding from anything more than a small breeze.  

Agreed 100%. I was just going further with that Tweet and excluding the Big Bend. In the stretch from Cedar Key south to just N of TB, a whopping ~15 (30%) of 12Z EPS members cross!

[lilj4425]

8 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

I don't like the strengthening trend with these models...

in less than a day, the models went from a low end hurricane landfall to a cat 3-4 landfall

Decreasing wind shear and hot gulf waters=bad combo. I expect it be at least a weak category 4 by landfall. Nothing preventing it from strengthening rapidly. Just look at what happened with Hurricane Ian last year. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It looks fine to me. This is the only active flight. 

Mission 3 is at the top of my TT recons.  I see #2 at the bottom now that I looked down the page.  It doesn't take much to confuse me.  Speaking of, nobody seems to think well of the NAM as a tropical model, but 30 minutes to the 18Z run.  Be interesting to compared 12Z and 18Z.  More interesting to compare the globals, of course.

[Tallis Rockwell]

4 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Mission 3 is at the top of my TT recons.  I see #2 at the bottom now that I looked down the page.  It doesn't take much to confuse me.  Speaking of, nobody seems to think well of the NAM as a tropical model, but 30 minutes to the 18Z run.  Be interesting to compared 12Z and 18Z.  More interesting to compare the globals, of course.

You mean the sub 895 mb hyperstorm?

[kvegas-wx]

7 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Decreasing wind shear and hot gulf waters=bad combo. I expect it be at least a weak category 4 by landfall. Nothing preventing it from strengthening rapidly. Just look at what happened with Hurricane Ian last year. 

Strengthening rapidly, sure.  But time and distance to the coast are both working against Idalia.  It will take time to gather the structure needed to support Cat 4 (or high Cat 3) winds.  I know we have seen some crazy RI storms the last few years, but 48-60 hours doesnt leave much room for ERCs when she is just now a TS.  I would lean towards an intensifying Cat 2 at landfall.

That said, these surface temps are unprecedented, so who knows. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

7 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

You mean the sub 895 mb hyperstorm?

The 12 km, obviously.

[nycwinter]

hurricane delta went from a tropical  depression to a cat 4 in less then 24 hours so anything is possible.

[Normandy]

It’s not often you get something this well organized with this much time over jet fuel. impressive outflow in all quadrants.  It’s a beast of a cyclone in the making.  Still like near tampa for landfall but I’m seeing the east shifts that usually occur with these setups.  That’s being said there is enough rushing to the east to keep this north of fort myers I think. 

[kvegas-wx]

10 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

hurricane delta went from a tropical  depression to a cat 4 in less then 24 hours so anything is possible.

Ah!  Good call!  I agree, anything is possible.  

[MANDA]

Watch for little nudges to the right in future TPC updates.  Any nudge to the right ups the ante for surge into Tampa Bay.  Also watch for potential bumps up in the intensity forecast.  Will have a much better idea on both track and ultimate intensity by this time tomorrow.  Potential here for the most significant surge into Tampa Bay in a long time.  Much depends on exact track but not likely this is going inland south of Tampa to keep them out of a surge problem.  Next several model cycles with all the data from synoptic missions fed in should offer better idea on estimated landfall point.

[Amped]

The Euro is showing a rapid pressure fall right before landfall.  This happened with TS Gabriel in 2001,  the pressure spiked right before landfall, winds didn't quite have time to catch up.

[CheeselandSkies]

18Z GFS with the casual 2MB/hr pressure drops continuing for 24 hours straight. 

[Hotair]

34 minutes ago, Normandy said:

It’s not often you get something this well organized with this much time over jet fuel. impressive outflow in all quadrants.  It’s a beast of a cyclone in the making.  Still like near tampa for landfall but I’m seeing the east shifts that usually occur with these setups.  That’s being said there is enough rushing to the east to keep this north of fort myers I think. 

I’m very concerned over a potential Tampa LF. This storm is not on many folks radar and given it’s already late Sunday and folks go to school and work tomorrow means there’s less free time for any proper preparation 

 

 

[Normandy]

Explosive convective development ongoing.  This is so far ahead of schedule it’s honestly frightening.

[Amped]

GFS is been too aggressive deepening most TCs in the last couple years. I'm not discounting it given the SSTs

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Explosive convective development ongoing.  This is so far ahead of schedule it’s honestly frightening.

Still sheared to the south, agreed, though once out of the shear it’s bombs away. Just need to get a solid core to form

[Low Pressure Lunacy]

As if we don't have enough problems in Floriduh, here is another, just in time to make your hurricane planning much more of a nightmare. They put diesel in the gas, BJs, 7Eleven etc. This article has a list of stations and says "Citgo sells gas to BJs, 7-Eleven, and also some unbranded stations. FDACS will send a more accurate list as it becomes available."

Good luck to everyone dealing with Idalia.

https://news.wgcu.org/section/business/2023-08-27/potential-fuel-contamination-identified-at-the-port-of-tampa-swfl-stations-could-be-impacted

Gas stations in SWFL impacted by fuel contamination at the Port of Tampa; Citgo releases list

WGCU | By WGCU Staff

Published August 27, 2023 at 2:18 PM EDT

[Floydbuster]

Evening video on Idalia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adUFWl88kyM