Hurricane Idalia

[WxWatcher007]

That was fast  

[gymengineer]

It happens quite a bit… when recon is investigating but the package has to go out. The NHC isn’t shy about issuing updates whenever. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

It happens quite a bit… when recon is investigating but the package has to go out. The NHC isn’t shy about issuing updates whenever. 

I know, just a little funny to see. They telegraphed it at 11am by saying it could happen at anytime. 

[PackGrad05]

6Z EPS model consensus is tight around a big bend landfall and then riding the GA/SC/NC coast up to Cape Fear.  ECMWF, UKMET, and ICON largely agree.

6Z GEFS model consensus slightly west of this.  

[shaggy]

6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

6Z EPS model consensus is tight around a big bend landfall and then riding the GA/SC/NC coast up to Cape Fear.  ECMWF, UKMET, and ICON largely agree.

6Z GEFS model consensus slightly west of this.  

I've recently relocated to the cape fear region and am curious as to what intensity it can bring up this way. It's steady forward motion and coast riding gives me hope for at least a few TS force gusts Thursday 

[Windspeed]

HAFS A and B both suggested a slow evolution of the vortex with persistent runs with convection lopsided just to the east. Some runs even losing and redeveloping the LLC, though the most recent runs have not lost it. The main point is that neither have shown significant intensification until the TC is lifting NNE through the SE GOM into Tuesday. We'll just have to see if this plays out IRL. Also, data should be injected from reconnaissance flights today into the parent universal GFS to get an even better handle.

[WxWatcher007]

It’s no surprise that the vortex is tilted, and that’ll limit the risk of rapid intensification in the near term. That said I’d watch the development of shallow convection near the center. Sometimes that can be a precursor for greater convective activity that can organize the center. I’m guessing we see it in spurts however given the apparent northerly shear that’s currently tilting Idalia. 
 

 

[NJsnow89]

Sorry for the banter but are we going to see any effects in central NC? Thanks 

[CheeselandSkies]

12Z GFS down to 960 MB, deepening on approach.

IMO surge risk to Big Bend is higher with this storm than any for a long time. The coast is sparsely populated, but if this does come in as a strong major and causes a swath of intense wind damage deep inland, as others pointed out it's all mobile homes and RV parks in there.

[PackGrad05]

12Z GFS is almost identical to ECMWF and EPS.  Rides GA/SC coast and then turns east at Cape Fear out to sea.

[eyewall]

38 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

6Z EPS model consensus is tight around a big bend landfall and then riding the GA/SC/NC coast up to Cape Fear.  ECMWF, UKMET, and ICON largely agree.

6Z GEFS model consensus slightly west of this.  

Yeah I am hoping for some outer bands like I saw in Isiais in 2020.

[shaggy]

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah I am hoping for some outer bands like I saw in Isiais in 2020.

I'm about 10 miles west off the beach at Wrightsville and about 15 miles north of Caswell beach now. Just moved down here a month ago.

[Buddy1987]

3 minutes ago, shaggy said:

I'm about 10 miles west off the beach at Wrightsville and about 15 miles north of Caswell beach now. Just moved down here a month ago.

Beautiful place! We stayed in North Topsail two weekends ago and took a drive down to Wrightsville Beach for the day. North Topsail had a lot of construction and renovations going on. Read something they got hit by like an EF2 tornado or something during one of the tropical events couple years back. Stay safe!

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: about same as 0Z with landfall NW part of FL Big Bend moving NNE followed by turn to NE/ENE going through south central and then SE GA. Then it goes offshore near CHS, SC:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L        ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N  86.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 27.08.2023    0  19.8N  86.1W     1003            24
    0000UTC 28.08.2023   12  20.4N  85.3W     1001            29
    1200UTC 28.08.2023   24  21.4N  85.5W     1001            33
    0000UTC 29.08.2023   36  22.6N  85.8W     1001            36
    1200UTC 29.08.2023   48  24.2N  86.1W     1000            34
    0000UTC 30.08.2023   60  25.8N  85.5W      999            38
    1200UTC 30.08.2023   72  28.6N  84.6W      995            49
    0000UTC 31.08.2023   84  31.2N  82.7W      993            39
    1200UTC 31.08.2023   96  33.2N  78.8W      993            43
    0000UTC 01.09.2023  108  33.4N  75.0W      995            48
    1200UTC 01.09.2023  120  33.8N  72.0W      999            46
    0000UTC 02.09.2023  132  33.2N  69.2W     1001            43
    1200UTC 02.09.2023  144  32.8N  68.4W     1003            37
    0000UTC 03.09.2023  156  33.6N  65.9W     1003            35
    1200UTC 03.09.2023  168  33.6N  64.5W      999            47

[Normandy]

The center drop is suggestive of a very healthy circulation despite being exposed right now.  I would expect a big convective burst soon.

[Seminole]

The 12Z GFS is another trend toward the Euro solution. The timing of the trough that picks up Idalia will be crucial to whether this is a Forgotten Coast or Nature Coast strike. 

[MattPetrulli]

20 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

Is the 12z HAFS using any of the recon data? Strong start..

If it is or isn't, it initializes about 6 mb too high

[WxWatcher007]

I’d probably wait until the 00z suite because the models will have data on not just right now but how Idalia evolved over the course of the day. 

[WxWatcher007]

FWIW, Euro is stronger and maybe a touch east? Definitely stronger as the low heads toward the FL/GA coast. 989mb at Savannah at 78.

[GaWx]

Euro landfalls in SE portion of Big Bend near 980 mb. It is significantly stronger and a bit further SE than recent runs. It then goes offshore 50 miles S of Savannah (mid-GA coast).

[StantonParkHoya]

Almost to Bermuda by Friday morning. Is this quicker exit than before?

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Euro landfalls in SE portion of Big Bend near 980 mb. It is significantly stronger and a bit further SE than recent runs. It then goes offshore 50 miles S of Savannah (mid-GA coast).

Thanks for cleaning up my sloppy geography  

7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Almost to Bermuda by Friday morning. Is this quicker exit than before?

It looks a lot faster by my eye. 

[WxWatcher007]

High altitude sampling flight underway. We'll see if it has any meaningful impact on the track and intensity guidance. 

[WxWatcher007]

I’d take this to mean that we did get valuable storm structure data for 12z, but much more will be coming in subsequent model suites with high altitude and low level recon continuing through the day and evening. 
 

 

[Amped]

Interesting to note that all the hurricane models blow this up to a Cat 3/4.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Prospero]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

What about Hermine in 2016? We lost an oak tree during an outer band here in Gulfport, Florida in Tampa Bay.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hermine

I think there have been others as well.

EDIT: "Since 1968, no hurricane has made landfall between Tampa and Florida's big bend. "

I guess the key word here is "between".

 

[Prospero]

Just now, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

If IMBY posts aren’t allowed I’ll delete, however curious if anyone knows how soon we’ll see watches and warnings? Im new to Tampa and run a business in level 1 evacuation zone that would require a bit of prep to close. Seems like we won’t have much time to prepare.

Sand bags are available now in Pinellas County:

https://thegabber.com/td-10-update-3-pinellas-sandbag-locations/

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Prospero said:

What about Hermine in 2016? We lost an oak tree during an outer band here in Gulfport, Florida in Tampa Bay.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hermine

I think there have been others as well.

 Indeed, Hermine was a solid H with 981 mb near landfall in the Big Bend. Beware of inaccurate Tweets. He even shows Hermine landfalling into the upper part of the Big Bend!

 If he means "between exclusive" instead of "between inclusive", then that's different. But "between exclusive" would be just a rather short portion of the coast centered on Spring Hill at a difficult angle to have a landfall. In that case, I don't think there's even been a TS crossing since 1968 (excluding 1968, itself, which had Gladys).

[Prospero]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Indeed, Hermine was a solid H with 981 mb near landfall in the Big Bend. Beware of inaccurate Tweets. He even shows Hermine landfalling into the upper part of the Big Bend!

 If he means between exclusive instead of between inclusive, then that's different. But between exclusive is just a short portion of the coast at a difficult angle to have a landfall.

I was here in 1972 with Hurricane Agnes and we had a ten foot storm surge even with Agnes some miles out into the Gulf.

Tropical Storm Debbie flooded some businesses in downtown Gulfport, Florida. Here's a night clip of the Gulfport Casino showing where Beach Blvd meets Gulf Blvd during Debbie: