Hurricane Idalia

[MANDA]

12 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Agree with all.  No question this is a tropical cyclone and the NHC should to pull the trigger soon.  Looks too good on all levels (banding, outflow, convection, radar presentation).  

I've seen so many systems NAMED that did not look near as good as this!

[hawkeye_wx]

All the hurricane models (hwrf, hmon, hafs) have greatly ramped up the strength as it shoots northward toward landfall.

[hlcater]

This is 2-3 days ahead of schedule in the Yucatán channel. As it meanders in a low shear environment what I’ll be watching for is if and how quickly a solid CDO/inner core develops. If we can get one going prior to shear increasing in 2-3 days, then the ceiling for this is much higher.

[NorthHillsWx]

I hate to say it but this feels like watching the birth of the next great Gulf hurricane

[WxWatcher007]

No surprise, but the NHC is telegraphing advisories later today. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Hurricane Franklin, located several hundred miles south of 
Bermuda.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located near the Yucatan Channel continue to gradually become 
better organized.  If this trend continues, advisories will be 
initiated on this system later today.  The system is expected to 
move very slowly northward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico 
during the next couple of days.  Heavy rains are likely over 
portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and 
Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[LakeNormanStormin]

This thing is about to blow up. Two days ahead of schedule sadly means a CAT 4 hurricane near the Big Bend of FL.

[Prospero]

It feels like the Fall in Tampa Bay, hot but dry and not so uncomfortable.

Bought half-n-half and two gallons of water today, a couple cans of beans, etc. Two cases of beer in reserve.

I saw people stocking up on toilet paper as I guess it is common knowledge that running out of toilet paper during a raging hurricane is a serious nightmare. We still have our COVID stock-pile of Northern Quilt...but is the expiration date expired?? Oh my!

 

 

[hlcater]

 

[WxWatcher007]

Euro short range still wants to take this near or over the Yucatan in the next 24 hours, so I suppose that's still something to watch. All the globals still playing catch up though to the organization we've seen so far. 

[CheeselandSkies]

If the latest HWRF verifies (again, not saying this is the most likely solution); western Cuba is in for a solid hurricane in less than 48 hours. Then after that...

Looks like last night's 0Z run was a glitch in the matrix for the famously bullish hurricane model. Both 12Z HAFS also go nuts.

[cptcatz]

12z HWRF and HAFS-1 both bring the pressure into the 930's. Knocking on cat 5 door...

[WxWatcher007]

With the massive shifts we're seeing on the guidance with regard to the steering pattern post landfall, there's a lot of uncertainty on where this eventually ends up after Florida, and if it gets left behind by the northeast trough. I know that's far out, but it's something of interest for the SE coast folks. 

[WxWatcher007]

If you want to know how seriously the NOAA/NHC is taking this, here’s your answer 

This is not something to wait until the last minute to prepare for.

 

[dan11295]

Circulation and banding just east of Cancun is clearly evident on Satellite and Radar.

[Eskimo Joe]

Kind of surprised NHC didn't designate this as a PTC at 11am.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Kind of surprised NHC didn't designate this as a PTC at 11am.

Gert may have been on their mind   

[hlcater]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Gert may have been on their mind   

The reply guys on Twitter really got to them

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, hlcater said:

The reply guys on Twitter really got to them

Sick of those chuds. 

[cptcatz]

Looks like convection near the center is waning. I wonder if it's not as healthy as it looked a few hours ago. 

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

Looks like convection near the center is waning. I wonder if it's not as healthy as it looked a few hours ago. 

DMIN

[lilj4425]

8 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Looks like convection near the center is waning. I wonder if it's not as healthy as it looked a few hours ago. 

Yeah…it’s dead. Time to close this thread. 

[WxWatcher007]

12z EPS

Worth noting how bearish the ensembles continue to be on significant development. This isn't a long range forecast. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Navy satellite site has TD #10

[CheeselandSkies]

Special Message from NHC

Issued 26 Aug 2023 20:16 UTC

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Ten, located near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).

[WxWatcher007]

Because there’s nothing else to do…I’m guessing their first map will have a landfall near Steinhatchee (north of Cedar Key) at 70kts, cautiously setting aside the higher intensity hurricane models until recon can get in there tomorrow. 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

The cloud pattern of the low pressure area located near the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has gradually become
better organized today.  Radar observations show a circulation has
developed, although surface observations indicate that the western
semicircle of this circulation is rather weak at this time.  Given 
the increased organization, advisories are being initiated on 
Tropical Depression Ten.  Surface synoptic observations suggest that 
the current intensity is around 25 kt.

The current motion estimate is nearly stationary.  There is a 
weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical 
cyclone, leaving the system in a region of very weak steering flow. 
The dynamical guidance indicates that the system will remain in 
weak steering currents for the next 24 to 36 hours, so very little 
motion is predicted during that period.  After that time, a 
mid-level ridge begins to build to the east of the tropical cyclone. 
This should cause a generally northward motion in the next 2 to 3 
days.  Then, a gradual turn to the north-northeast is expected as 
the system moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge.  The 
official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected 
dynamical model consensus guidance.

The tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters with only
moderate vertical wind shear anticipated during the next several
days.  Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast.  The official
forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and shows the 
system becoming a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Users 
are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day 
intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future 
forecasts.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as
landslides, across western Cuba.  The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
over portions of western Cuba within the Tropical Storm Watch area.

2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days
and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the
Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week.  Heavy rainfall is
also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to
late next week.  Although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas
should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure
that they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 21.1N  86.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 21.0N  86.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 20.9N  86.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 20.8N  86.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 22.0N  85.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 24.0N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 26.3N  85.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 31.5N  83.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  31/1800Z 35.0N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Windspeed]

First graphic for posterity...

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

9 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

First graphic for posterity...

Minimal Cat 1 about 12 hours before landfall.  Anticyclone over the top on 12Z GFS should keep the dry air to the W and SW from mixing in too much, I'd guess strengthening until landfall.  It might be a Cat 1 more than 12 hours before landfall, of course.

[NavarreDon]

Looks like St Marks area for landfall, FD was on point about strength errors.


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