WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 1:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 Location: 25.8°N 94.4°W Moving: WNW at 18 mph Min pressure: 1004 mb Max sustained: 45 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 First VDM. That high SFMR almost certainly came from a gust. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 6:18ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304 Tropical Depression: Nine (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 2Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 5:32:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.62N 94.19WB. Center Fix Location: 206 statute miles (332 km) to the E (96°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 723m (2,372ft) at 925mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg) - ExtrapolatedE. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NAF. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 52kts (59.8mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix at 5:13:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 112° at 52kts (From the ESE at 59.8mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 59 nautical miles (68 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix at 5:13:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18kts (20.7mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix at 5:44:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 4° at 12kts (From the N at 13.8mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix at 5:47:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 758m (2,487ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 925mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) which was observed 59 nautical miles (68 statute miles) to the NE (41°) from the flight level center at 5:13:00ZSea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 There is nothing on radar to suggest rapid development of a core occurring. It's just a slow and steady organizing cyclone. Folks there will gladly handle a little wind to get the beneficial rains for southern Texas. Now, if we can just get one of these into the Houston region and north-central Texas. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: There is nothing on radar to suggest rapid development of a core occurring. It's just a slow and steady organizing cyclone. Folks there will gladly handle a little wind to get the beneficial rains for southern Texas. Now, if we can just get one of these into the Houston region and north-central Texas. Yep—an instance here where a TC can do more good than harm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Does look to be getting its act together now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 It was never able to align. The convection continues to be elongated and displaced north of the surface center. The overnight recon struggled to even close off a low center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Probably benefitting from frictional convergence but banding has markedly improved in the last hour and the center is starting to get some strong storms wrapping around it with a nice feeder band to the east that should help to keep the storm development around the center. The center and I’m assuming wind field are likely contracting as well based off radar data. Velocities are also pretty high with several 50-55kt velocities showing up. I still think this jumps up to the 50-60kt range before landfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 Pretty potent look rolling up on the coastline. Good job by the models to show this evolution without overdoing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Pretty potent look rolling up on the coastline. Good job by the models to show this evolution without overdoing it. Yep just running out of water before it could take off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Models largely had this thing nailed a few days ago when they showed it finally organizing and tightening at the very last second before landfall. If Harold looked like this 24 hours ago, we'd be talking about a much more significant system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Would’ve been a cane if it had 10 more hours over water 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Not sure if it’s verifying on the ground but that intense band moving onshore has a lot of velocities exceeding 50 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The waters there are rocket fuel right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 Landfall at Padre Island. 50mph/998mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0960&yr=2023 ------------- Decent impacts from TS Harold here this morning on the TX coastal bend (around Corpus Christi area) since the outer bands started coming onshore around 4 a.m. CDT with a decent amount of lightning discharges in those. Getting some estimated 50 - 55 mph wind gusts at times now. Harold is just moving too fast now to even have much of a flooding impact at this point. The southeast quadrant offshore is also pretty dry on radar right now as well. But at least the tail moisture inflow on the southeastern periphery could provide one last decent convective round tonight before Harold completely pulls away from the region Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 46 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Incredible! Watching an eyeball form live on radar. Probably a decent but stronger than the estimated 50mph 998 official landfall. Probably more like 65mph 992. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 One of those storms that is more beneficial than harmful. That area has been very dry and really needs the rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 43 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Incredible! Watching an eyeball form live on radar. Probably a decent but stronger than the estimated 50mph 998 official landfall. Probably more like 65mph 992. nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 60+ mph wind gusts being reported around Corpus Christi and near 70 mph further south around Kingsville, TX in Kleberg county closer to the center of Harold moving inland (after making landfall south of Baffin Bay), within the past 2 hours. ---------- Got noisy inside here in those heavier squalls in the past hour and have a small tree limb down on the yard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 Harold packing a good little punch today. Multiple tornado warnings, aerial/surge flooding, and some strong winds even after landfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 I think this storm was stronger at LF than NHC had it. There were 65-70 kt velocities at LF from Corpus Christi south and several observations above 60 kts. Was interesting to watch it wrap up in the final hour. Obviously overall the impacts for the storm are incredibly beneficial from a rainfall standpoint. Wish Houston area and north had been able to get into the rains 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 There is certainly an argument for hurricane intensity at landfall based on obs and radar data. It was wrapping up in a VERY rapid manner at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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