hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 The new recon dropsonde says 970 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 He could have been a big hit if he was 500 miles west. The board would have been nuts of we had been looking at a Franklin east coast landfall followed by a gom landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 No recent microwave data to confirm this, but IR satellite seems to indicate that Franklin may be about to clear out its eye. CBs have been making full rotations around the eyewall in recent hours. Perhaps the eastern eyewall disruption has been alleviated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 965 mb now per the new recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Been moving more west short term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 There are now 5 or 6 EPS members looping and ending with Franklin moving southwest back towards the US... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, cptcatz said: There are now 5 or 6 EPS members looping and ending with Franklin moving southwest back towards the US... I think the 18z GFS showed this too and a hit at around Jacksonville Florida at the end of the run of all things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I think the 18z GFS showed this too and a hit at around Jacksonville Florida at the end of the run of all things. Nah the GFS shows and Franklin Idalia both long gone at that point, it looks like the tail of a front that gets left behind and develops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: There are now 5 or 6 EPS members looping and ending with Franklin moving southwest back towards the US... I don't even want to imagine the shenanigans that would be possible with Franklin and Idalia both drifting around in the western Atlantic late in the coming week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Franklin is becoming better organized tonight. A ragged eye has emerged in conventional satellite imagery during the past few hours, and the Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported a closed eyewall during recent passes through the center. Aircraft data indicated the minimum pressure has continued to fall, with a 00 UTC dropsonde reporting a pressure of 964 mb. Since the plane departed, the satellite structure of Franklin has markedly improved, with very cold cloud tops wrapping around the eastern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity of 90 kt is supported by recent objective estimates from UW-CIMSS and a T5.0 subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB at 00 UTC. Recent satellite images suggest the hurricane is finally turning more northward as expected, and the initial motion is north-northwestward (330/7 kt). A gradual turn to the north and north-northeast is forecast during the next couple of days as Franklin moves around the western periphery of a high pressure ridge. The track guidance is in good agreement on this portion of the forecast, and only minor westward adjustments were made following the latest HCCA and TVCA aids. Thereafter, track uncertainty increases regarding Franklin's interaction with a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. east coast by midweek. The GFS and ECMWF lie on opposite sides of the guidance envelope, with an 850 n-mi spread at 96 h. Given the greater than normal uncertainty, the NHC track forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids at days 3-5, showing a gradually faster east-northeastward to northeastward motion during this period. Based on recent satellite trends, it appears that the shear has weakened and the inner core of Franklin has become more solidified. Thus, the hurricane could be primed to strengthen in the near term within a low shear environment over very warm SSTs. The NHC forecast brings Franklin to major hurricane intensity in 12 h with more strengthening thereafter, in best agreement with some of the regional hurricane models and slightly above the HCCA/IVCN aids. As the hurricane recurves, increased deep-layer shear and cooler waters should induce some weakening, although the wind field will expand while the hurricane moves further into the mid-latitudes. This forecast shows Franklin becoming extratropical at day 5, although the timing could be refined based on future track forecasts. Although the core of Franklin is forecast to pass west and north of Bermuda during the next few days, its expanding wind field will likely require a tropical storm watch for the island on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 26.4N 70.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 27.3N 71.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 28.9N 71.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 30.4N 70.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 32.2N 69.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 33.8N 67.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 35.2N 64.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 37.5N 57.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 42.0N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Franklin is really taking off now. The new recon plane found 941 mb (extrap) and 123 kt flight level wind. Update: 943 mb per recon dropsonde. The NHC may quickly upgrade this to 135 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Cat 4. 130 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 37 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Franklin is really taking off now. The new recon plane found 941 mb (extrap) and 123 kt flight level wind. Update: 943 mb per recon dropsonde. The NHC may quickly upgrade this to 135 mph. Hurricane Franklin Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 735 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND FRANKLIN TO BE STRONGER... Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that Hurricane Franklin has strengthened this morning. The maximum winds are estimated to be 130 mph (210 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure has dropped to 942 mb. The next full advisory on Franklin will be at 11AM EDT (1500 UTC). SUMMARY OF 735 AM...1135 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 70.8W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Hurricane Franklin Tropical Cyclone UpdateNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023735 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND FRANKLIN TO BE STRONGER...Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that Hurricane Franklin has strengthened this morning. The maximum winds are estimated to be 130 mph (210 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure has dropped to 942 mb. The next full advisory on Franklin will be at 11AM EDT (1500 UTC).SUMMARY OF 735 AM...1135 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...27.4N 70.8WABOUT 405 MI...650 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLANDABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SW OF BERMUDAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES$$Yeah about that...Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 If an absurd RI episode happens over the fish, but there's a gulf storm brewing, did it even happen? 145mph...what a shocking update lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 The pressure fell 6-7 mb during the 1.5 hour period between the first and second recon pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 We spend a lot of time watching the models to see how strong these storms may get. We are doing that now with Idalia. Last night's 00z Euro is already off by 30 mb for Franklin. The Euro predicted a 966 mb hurricane this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Franklin had that text book look right now. Despite its smallish size, it will produce the largest, most dangerous August swell for the east coast since Bill 08. Beach erosion, wash overs and deadly rip currents likely up and down the east coast. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drstuess Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Franklin had that text book look right now. Despite its smallish size, it will produce the largest, most dangerous August swell for the east coast since Bill 08. Beach erosion, wash overs and deadly rip currents likely up and down the east coast. Yeah, Bill had 80 mile hurricane wind radius, Franklin is currently only 20-30 miles? Wind field will expand, but will be interesting to see.Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 TS Watch up for Bermuda TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 ...FRANKLIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 71.0W ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 71.0 West. Franklin is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). This northward to north-northeastward motion with a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to pass well west of Bermuda on Wednesday. Based on data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Franklin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible today, but gradual weakening is expected to begin later Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb based on data from aircraft reconnaissance (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells, life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by Franklin are beginning to affect Bermuda and the Southeast United States and are expected to spread northward along the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, during the next couple of days. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 WTNT43 KNHC 281459 TCDAT3 Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Visible, infrared and microwave imagery depict a strengthening major hurricane with a well-defined eye, a thick eyewall, and very cold cloud tops. This was further supported by data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters, who have been investigating the storm this morning. Minimum pressure has decreased from the previous advisory based on a dropsonde measuring a pressure of 937 mb around 12 UTC. Flight-level, SFMR winds and dropsondes in the eyewall indicate maximum sustained winds have increased to 125 kt. Subjective and object satellite estimates also have drastically increased with this advisory. Given these data, the initial intensity is raised to 125 kt for this advisory, and Franklin has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 major hurricane. The hurricane continues to make a gradual turn northward, with the latest motion estimate northward at 350/8 kt. A northward then northeastward motion is forecast during the next 48 hours as Franklin rounds the western edge of the subtropical ridge. After 48 hours, a deep trough is expected to move off the U.S. northeast coast and Canada, and has Franklin becoming captured in the southwesterly flow, with an increase in forward motion to the northeast. There is better agreement in cross-track guidance compared to the previous few advisories. However, there is still a slight difference in the along track guidance with the GFS being faster, and the ECMWF a little slower. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous forecast, with only a minor nudge to the north. Some additional intensification is possible today, as Franklin remains in a low shear environment and is over warm sea-surface temperatures. The latest intensity forecast peaks Franklin as a strong Category 4 major hurricane. However, inner core changes, such as eyewall replacement cycles, could occur at any time, making the peak intensity and short-term forecast a little more challenging. Some gradual weakening is forecast in about a day or so when models forecast a slight increase in northwesterly shear. Toward the end of the forecast period, further weakening is expected as Franklin encounters increased vertical wind shear and moves over cooler SSTs. The latest forecast shows the storm becoming a extratropical cyclone in 120 h, though this could occur sooner. KEY MESSAGES: 1.Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Wednesday morning, when Franklin is forecast to make its closest approach to the island. 2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the coast of the southeast United States. These conditions are expected to spread northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 27.8N 71.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 29.0N 71.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 30.7N 70.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 32.5N 69.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 34.5N 67.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 36.3N 64.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 38.7N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 44.5N 49.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 51.8N 39.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 29 minutes ago, drstuess said: Yeah, Bill had 80 mile hurricane wind radius, Franklin is currently only 20-30 miles? Wind field will expand, but will be interesting to see. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Exactly, fetch is very important. Though with the track being north for a two day period there will be captured fetch in the eastern quadrant that will affect south facing beaches in the north east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 No sign of EWRC yet. A run at Cat 5 is not out of the question today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Now we are seeing signs of one, though the inner eyewall is very thick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 minute ago, Boston Bulldog said: Now we are seeing signs of one, though the inner eyewall is very thick No fix until 23:30z. Probably will be past peak by then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Franklin has become a very impressive hurricane. Let's hope it can hold this intensity until the next recon plane gets in there this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 recon is in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Gorgeous hurricane to track with what will hopefully be minimal impacts to Bermuda in a few days. A nice August ACE engine as well. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 3k likes blowing up storms for no reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Franklin is a gorgeous storm. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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