Hurricane Franklin

[ineedsnow]

39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Steering pattern just doesn’t look conducive for a strike after DR/Haiti and maybe Bermuda. Just discussing though—I still believe we need to get this out of the Caribbean to see what eventual long term track looks like as it moves north.

 

[cptcatz]

Recon and visual satellite both showing the center is a full 2 degrees west of where NHC has it...

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Steering pattern just doesn’t look conducive for a strike after DR/Haiti and maybe Bermuda. Just discussing though—I still believe we need to get this out of the Caribbean to see what eventual long term track looks like as it moves north.

Honestly a system cutting NE from the carribbean is highly unusual in August. Seems El Niño-y to me

[WxWatcher007]

Well the Euro keeps Atlantic Canada on the table. Still worth watching closely there. 

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Recon and visual satellite both showing the center is a full 2 degrees west of where NHC has it...

Gotta wonder if there will be a reformation after landfall.

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Gotta wonder if there will be a reformation after landfall.

Id bank on it. Current LLC seems to be moving west and will probably die under the shear (it’s already weak at best). With the ongoing convective flare ups east I would be shocked if a new center didn’t form under them at some point. This system shows just how hostile the environment is, however

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Id bank on it. Current LLC seems to be moving west and will probably die under the shear (it’s already weak at best). With the ongoing convective flare ups east I would be shocked if a new center didn’t form under them at some point. This system shows just how hostile the environment is, however

Yeah, for now at least. Euro is faster with intensification after landfall but guidance has been waivering back and forth on that. 

[Kevin Reilly]

48 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Honestly a system cutting NE from the carribbean is highly unusual in August. Seems El Niño-y to me

I would say yes to this because typically there are many upper-level lows and shear during El Nino years, right?

[WxWatcher007]

 

[shanemacdonald23]

Yeah looks like out to sea here in Nova Scotia after todays runs , and i did notice i feel like i was following this for 2 weeks lol but each day its delayed on arrival up this end , i guess models are having a hard time giving  what Franklin is doing right now . really depends on after it moves out of the Caribbean will we see some consensus within the models . 

[WxWatcher007]

22 minutes ago, shanemacdonald23 said:

Yeah looks like out to sea here in Nova Scotia after todays runs , and i did notice i feel like i was following this for 2 weeks lol but each day its delayed on arrival up this end , i guess models are having a hard time giving  what Franklin is doing right now . really depends on after it moves out of the Caribbean will we see some consensus within the models . 

Oh it’s definitely still worth watching in NS. Small upper level changes could still make a big difference for Atlantic Canada—whether that’s more direct impact or no impact at all. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Lol at the HFAI (?) intensity forecast this morning. Just your run of the mill 175 knot peak 

[MJO812]

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Oh it’s definitely still worth watching in NS. Small upper level changes could still make a big difference for Atlantic Canada—whether that’s more direct impact or no impact at all. 

Looks like no threat to the US despite what some people are saying on social media .

[olafminesaw]

21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Lol at the HFAI (?) intensity forecast this morning. Just your run of the mill 175 knot peak 

I know! Don't think I've ever seen that, even with hurricanes that are already cat 5s

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like no threat to the US despite what some people are saying on social media .

Canada only, if that. EPS west/GEFS east. The means have been offshore, however, and have generally shifted more in that direction the last 24 hours.

[WxWatcher007]

Landfall

 

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Franklin's center appears to have made landfall a little to the 
south of Barahona, Dominican Republic, shortly before 1200 UTC, and 
it is now moving northward over the mountainous terrain of the 
country.  Heavy rains have likely overspread much of Hispaniola, 
although the deepest convection is occurring along the south-central 
coast of the island.  It is assumed that the maximum winds have 
decreased now that the center is over land, and the initial 
intensity is set at 35 kt, which is close to the latest UW-CIMSS 
AiDT and D-PRINT estimates.

Franklin's speed has picked up a bit, and it is moving toward the 
north (005 degrees) at 11 kt.  The storm continues to move 
northward through a break in the subtropical ridge, but it is 
expected to turn northeastward in the next 24-36 hours when it 
becomes positioned near the southern extent of a large mid-latitude 
trough over the western Atlantic.  Then, in about 3 days, the 
central Atlantic ridge is expected to strengthen and block 
Franklin's eastward progress, forcing the storm to turn toward the 
north by days 4 and 5.  The track guidance is tightly clustered 
during the first 60-72 hours of the forecast, and the NHC track 
forecast is very close to the previous prediction and the various 
consensus aids.  After 72 hours, the guidance suggests that 
the northward turn may be a little delayed.  In response, the NHC 
track has been shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast at 
days 4 and 5.

Franklin will still be affected by moderate-to-strong 
west-southwesterly shear when it moves off the coast of Hispaniola 
later today, so it will likely take some time for the circulation 
to reorganize itself after moving over the rugged terrain.  
Otherwise, environmental conditions should support gradual 
strengthening starting in about 24 hours.  In about 3 days, 
a developing upper-level low near the Bahamas is likely to provide 
a more favorable diffluent environment aloft over Franklin, 
potentially fostering more significant strengthening.  Although 
there is a fairly wide range of intensity possibilities in the 
deterministic and ensemble intensity guidance on days 3-5, the 
overall guidance envelope has been trending higher.  The NHC 
intensity forecast follows that tendency and is higher than the 
previous forecast on days 4 and 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across much of 
Hispaniola into Thursday, which is expected to produce significant 
and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding as well as 
mudslides, particularly over central Hispaniola.

2. Franklin is bringing tropical storm conditions to portions of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in
effect, and tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
the Turks and Caicos Islands later today or tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 18.9N  70.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER DOMINICAN REPUB.
 12H  24/0000Z 20.5N  70.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  24/1200Z 22.1N  69.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 22.8N  68.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 23.1N  67.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z 23.4N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 24.3N  65.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 27.3N  66.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 31.1N  67.6W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[WxWatcher007]

 

[NorthHillsWx]

There’s a growing chance Franklin becomes the first MH of the season 

[MANDA]

Franklin looking very healthy as it crosses DR/Haiti.  Nice outflow and banding.   Low shear and warm water ahead should get Franklin to Hurricane status with not much trouble. 

[WxWatcher007]

12z guidance also moved back toward more direct impacts in Atlantic Canada.

[marsman]

5pm advisory out. They'll likely be strong currents and waves for the east coast coming up. Already seeing 6-10' wave forecasts offshore OBX.

[NorthHillsWx]

47 minutes ago, marsman said:

5pm advisory out. They'll likely be strong currents and waves for the east coast coming up. Already seeing 6-10' wave forecasts offshore OBX.

Surfers dream week incoming 

[CheeselandSkies]

4 hours ago, MANDA said:

Franklin looking very healthy as it crosses DR/Haiti.  Nice outflow and banding.   Low shear and warm water ahead should get Franklin to Hurricane status with not much trouble. 

Kinda surprised an already struggling moderate TS wasn't absolutely destroyed by the (in)famous Shredderola.

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Kinda surprised an already struggling moderate TS wasn't absolutely destroyed by the (in)famous Shredderola.

I feel like we've seen a lot of this lately. I don't recall many storms in recent years being significantly disrupted by the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. 

Now that the center is offshore, it's a short flight for recon as they head toward the storm. 

 

[MANDA]

36 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Kinda surprised an already struggling moderate TS wasn't absolutely destroyed by the (in)famous Shredderola.

The ones that are struggling / weak on their way in tend not to be disrupted as much as something with a well developed core.  Just my opinion.  I've seen this happen in the past.  If it is weak and in a moist lower shear environment it tends to fair better.

We'll see what it does in the days ahead but seems to me it should reach hurricane intensity without much trouble.  Franklin will tally up some ACE points.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

13 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like no threat to the US despite what some people are saying on social media .

Yo be fair, I posted to Twitter/X, with a zoomed 18Z GFS ensembles with a 985 mb headed for Nantucket.  Sure, it was the leftmost outlier, but #MAwx people need some excitement.  I actually think the W. Coast of Florida, or maybe the E Gulf, is likely the only US hurricane threat area, if not next week, in late September or October.  I feel safe in Texas.  Which is good, I wasn't as fat, and didn't need CPAP after Ike.  Didn't lose power during Harvey, but parishioners at our church drowned during Harvey, and I do use CPAP now.  Now I just weenie, just a little, for other people's storms.  I'll still weenie for a Houston winter weather event.

[ineedsnow]

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

12z guidance also moved back toward more direct impacts in Atlantic Canada.

18z GEFS took a huge step west.. they could see something for sure

[WxWatcher007]

Looks like some modest organization in between passes. 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 1:07Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Storm Name: Franklin
Storm Number & Year: 08 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 10 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 0:40:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20.86N 70.54W
B. Center Fix Location: 57 statute miles (92 km) to the SE (137°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 200° at 9kts (From the SSW at 10mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 32kts (36.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles) to the SW (223°) of center fix at 0:25:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 273° at 26kts (From the W at 29.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the SSW (205°) of center fix at 0:37:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 40kts (46.0mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix at 0:49:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 129° at 41kts (From the SE at 47.2mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the NE (42°) of center fix at 0:50:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) which was observed 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the NE (42°) from the flight level center at 0:50:30Z

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Hispaniola used to be shredzilla for storms but recently they’ve become immune to it. Franklins circulation looks better defined now than at any point before land interaction 

[BYG Jacob]

51 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Hispaniola used to be shredzilla for storms but recently they’ve become immune to it. Franklins circulation looks better defined now than at any point before land interaction 

Nothing to shred apart when a storm begins its passage as a mess.