Hurricane Franklin

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Weenie alert issued for New England. Preposterous GFS runs possibly posted on Twitter over the coming days. 

And at most wx forums, too. 
At this early stage, NE, especially SE MA/ME, is at some risk from this next week especially from the outer fringes per the 12Z ensembles. At higher risk in addition to the Caribbean are SE Canada, Bermuda, and the Bahamas.

[Rtd208]

DT's (WxRisk) take on Franklin.

[shanemacdonald23]

2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

DT's (WxRisk) take on Franklin.

I guess Fork is out for anything up here in Nova Scotia 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, shanemacdonald23 said:

I guess Fork is out for anything up here in Nova Scotia 

I would definitely watch up there. 

[hlcater]

This is pretty neat

 

[WxWatcher007]

16 minutes ago, hlcater said:

This is pretty neat

 

Love it

[CheeselandSkies]

17 minutes ago, hlcater said:

This is pretty neat

 

Wasn't this seen with the (unexpectedly disrupted, I was sure it was going full Wilma) bomb-out of Hurricane Delta in 2020?

[hlcater]

4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Wasn't this seen with the (unexpectedly disrupted, I was sure it was going full Wilma) bomb-out of Hurricane Delta in 2020?

Maybe, but you also need just a little bit of shear and disorganization to get a singular updraft to be sufficiently strong to do that.

[NorthHillsWx]

Franklin’s circulation seems extremely elongated on visible imagery this morning. I wonder if we’ll get recon today to examine the structure. Definitely getting blasted by shear but man this storm has some impressive convective bursts continuing 

[WxWatcher007]

Recon descending into Franklin now. Should be a helpful mission for understanding structure and getting data into the guidance. 

[NorthHillsWx]

40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Recon descending into Franklin now. Should be a helpful mission for understanding structure and getting data into the guidance. 

As expected the circulation appears extremely elongated. It’s possible it may have opened up. Let’s see if they find a consolidated center this pass

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm surprised no one talking about Franklin. A lot of 12z GFS ensembles have it close to hitting the coast. 

[WxWatcher007]

Franklin VDM

 

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 18:38Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Franklin
Storm Number & Year: 08 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 18:14:48Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.28N 69.88W
B. Center Fix Location: 291 statute miles (468 km) to the S (179°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,454m (4,770ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 110° at 18kts (From the ESE at 21mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: Not Available
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound (Undecoded): NA
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 73° at 46kts (From the ENE at 52.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the N (351°) of center fix at 17:59:04Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: Not Available
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound (Undecoded): NA
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 43° at 48kts (From the NE at 55.2mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the NW (320°) of center fix at 18:17:13Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the NW (320°) from the flight level center at 18:17:13Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the NNW (337°) from the flight level center

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm surprised no one talking about Franklin. A lot of 12z GFS ensembles have it close to hitting the coast. 

It still looks really unlikely for the US. I think there's a legitimate threat for Atlantic Canada though. 

[Witness Protection Program]

21 hours ago, Windspeed said:

21 hours ago, Witness Protection Program said:

Dang, how long has it been Franklin?  I assume a lot of lighting involved?  The key for me is keeping this turkey away from Houston.

Just became Franklin, and you must be confusing this system (topic) with the Gulf of Mexico system. Franklin will not be a threat to the Gulf but could pose some interaction with the Mid-Atlantic to New England depending on how modeling evolves and trough vs western Atlantic ridging interaction.

Thanks.  But...

...the Little Orphan Annie secret society decoder pin says:

"Dang, how long has it been Franklin?  I assume a lot of lighting involved?  The key for me is keeping this turkey away from Houston."

Should have added kite flying and Punnsylvania references.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It still looks really unlikely for the US. I think there's a legitimate threat for Atlantic Canada though. 

Yeah, I see on the ensemble mean a +PNA trough captures it. Pattern seems to be supported by the Pacific. 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

Franklin is not an especially well-organized tropical cyclone this 
afternoon. The NOAA reconnaissance mission has been sampling the 
storm for a large part of the afternoon, and found a center 
to the south of where the position was estimated earlier today. In 
addition, the winds on the southwest side of the circulation are 
more diffuse, and overall the circulation is a bit more elongated 
than what the plane found yesterday at this time. Peak 850-mb flight 
level winds were at 48 kt just to the northwest of the circulation, 
which supports an intensity between 40-45 kt after using a standard 
reduction. The initial intensity will remain at 45 kt for this 
advisory, which is also in between the higher TAFB and lower SAB 
intensity estimates. 

The tropical storm has been meandering today, and my best guess at 
an initial motion is a drift south of due west at 265/4 kt. Given 
the current elongated nature of the surface circulation, the short- 
term track forecast is tricky, ranging from the GFS on the east side 
of the guidance envelope that has a center reformation to the 
northeast, and the CMC and ECMWF which are on the western side of 
the guidance envelope. The steering currents are also poorly defined 
currently due to a large mid-oceanic trough in the western Atlantic 
disrupting the flow pattern. Mid-level ridging eventually builds in 
to the east of Franklin, which should ultimately induce a northward 
motion by 24-36 h, and then northeastward between 48-96 h, as a 
mid-latitude trough reinforces the weakness to the north of the 
storm. The track guidance has slowed down again compared to the 
previous cycle, prolonging the time the system will remain over the 
Caribbean Sea before it moves over Hispaniola. The NHC track 
forecast is once again slower than the previous cycle and has also 
been nudged a touch westward compared to the previous one, but is 
now a bit east of the simple and corrected consensus aids. 

Given Franklin's current structure, I am somewhat skeptical there 
will be a lot of meaningful near-term intensification, especially 
while moderate vertical wind shear continues to disrupt the 
convective structure. However, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS 
guidance indicate that the shear will briefly drop under 10 kt in 
about 24 hours, and when combined with warm 29 C sea-surface 
temperatures, it still seems prudent to show some intensification 
before Franklin moves inland over Hispaniola. Significant land 
interaction over the higher terrain will then lead to weakening, 
which could be underdone here given the current track over some of 
the most mountainous terrain. After Franklin emerges into the 
western Atlantic, another round of southwesterly shear may slow the 
rate of reintensification, and the latest NHC intensity forecast is 
a bit more subdued than the previous one, once again electing to 
follow the HCCA consensus aid. Given the complex intensity factors 
mentioned above, this is a low confidence forecast. 


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of 
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The heavy 
rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as 
river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and 
potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into 
Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to 
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning on Tuesday 
where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 14.3N  70.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 14.3N  70.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 15.3N  71.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 17.2N  71.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 19.1N  70.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 60H  24/0600Z 20.6N  70.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  24/1800Z 22.2N  68.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 23.6N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 25.6N  65.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[WxWatcher007]

Franklin now stationary per recon. We saw really significant degradation of the system today and it’ll be interesting to see if this has an impact on making it too shallow for the first trough/weakness to significantly influence the early post DR/Haiti track. 

[Normandy]

I’m not certain a center reforms.  A new burst has occurred where recon currently fixed it (SE of the previous location).  Track implications are certain with this wild motion.  Interesting to watch unfold

[coastal front]

Man Franklin has had some of the most intense convective bursts I’ve ever seen. 

[shanemacdonald23]

Ill be keeping a eye out up here in Cape Breton we got hit with Fiona biggest storm and scariest storm i ever witnessed almost died 3 times out storm chasing with a few of my weather buddies . thank god we got home sadly my buddies house had his roof blown off . this one dont look to strong as of now might miss us by mere few km be interesting to see how this unfolds . cheers folks 

[SnoSki14]

Looking more likely this won't affect anyone after passing DR. 

Unfavorable steering patterns for US impacts

[NorthHillsWx]

Franklin may have opened up into a trough overnight. Really hard to find any westerly wind component on visible this morning and the convection is extremely ragged

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looking more likely this won't affect anyone after passing DR. 

Unfavorable steering patterns for US impacts

Agree but I would still keep an eye on it . 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Franklin may have opened up into a trough overnight. Really hard to find any westerly wind component on visible this morning and the convection is extremely ragged

Kudos to the euro that basically had this forecasted a few days ago.

[SI Mailman]

My buddy is down in Aruba on vacation and stuck inside all day from Franklin's rains.  

[WxWatcher007]

I wouldn’t be posting this much if I weren’t home sick  

 

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

It is unclear this morning if Franklin still has a well-defined
center of circulation.  Visible satellite images suggest that broad
low-level turning is occurring well to the west of the bulk of
Franklin's deep convection, and there is no clear evidence that a
center exists near, or that a new center if re-forming beneath, the
convection.  It appears that scatterometer will miss Franklin and
be of no help in assessing the wind field, but a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this
afternoon.  For now, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which
is right in the middle of the various subjective and objective
satellite estimates.

If Franklin does still have a center, it is assumed to have jumped
or re-formed a bit to the west where there is new convection.  This
position gives the storm an overall motion over the past 12 hours
toward the northwest (325 degrees) at 6 kt.  Franklin is positioned
within the southern extent of a large mid-level trough, which
includes a mid-/upper-level low centered south of Bermuda.  While
the steering flow is weak, this should cause Franklin to move slowly
northward and then northeastward for the next 4 days or so.  By day
5, a new shortwave trough is likely to develop over New England,
with ridging strengthening over the central Atlantic, and Franklin
is forecast to turn back toward the north at that time.  Largely
because of the adjustment in the initial position, all of the track
guidance has shifted westward on this cycle.  The NHC track
forecast has also been moved westward, although it is on the
eastern side of the guidance envelope and fairly close to the
typically-reliable HCCA consensus aid.  That said, there is
greater-than-usual uncertainty in Franklin's forecast track given
potential re-formations of the center.

Moderate-to-strong westerly shear is expected to continue over
Franklin for the next 4 days or so.  In addition, the system is
forecast to move over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola within the
next 24-36 hours.  As a result, little change in strength is
anticipated before Franklin reaches Hispaniola, and some weakening
is likely while it is crossing the island.  Some intensification
is then noted in the 3-5 day period when environmental conditions
begin to become a little more conducive for strengthening.  The NHC
intensity forecast is near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids for
much of the 5-day forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into Thursday. The heavy rainfall may
produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as river rises and
mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and potentially
life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect, beginning later today and continuing through
Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 15.5N  71.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 16.5N  71.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 18.3N  70.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...S COAST OF DOM REPUB
 36H  24/0000Z 20.4N  70.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  24/1200Z 22.1N  69.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 22.9N  68.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 23.3N  67.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 24.2N  66.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 27.1N  67.1W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[WxWatcher007]

Significant shift east on the guidance so far today away from direct Atlantic Canada impacts.

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Significant shift east on the guidance so far today away from direct Atlantic Canada impacts.

All 12z models have the center under the deep convection.. New center might be well west of that if so models are off.. recon on the way

[WxWatcher007]

48 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

All 12z models have the center under the deep convection.. New center might be well west of that if so models are off.. recon on the way

Steering pattern just doesn’t look conducive for a strike after DR/Haiti and maybe Bermuda. Just discussing though—I still believe we need to get this out of the Caribbean to see what eventual long term track looks like as it moves north.