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Hurricane Hilary


WxWatcher007
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Interesting 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 5:25Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 
Storm Name: Hilary
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2023 (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 4:54:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.17N 114.67W
B. Center Fix Location: 129 statute miles (208 km) to the SSW (197°) from Guerrero Negro, Baja California Sur, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,866m (9,403ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 974mb (28.77 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 35° at 24kts (From the NE at 28mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 47kts (54.1mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the NE (35°) of center fix at 4:41:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 125° at 77kts (From the SE at 88.6mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix at 4:38:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 42kts (48.3mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the SW (221°) of center fix at 5:12:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 315° at 55kts (From the NW at 63.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 87 nautical miles (100 statute miles) to the SW (223°) of center fix at 5:18:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) which was observed 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NE (38°) from the flight level center at 4:38:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 12°C (54°F) which was observed 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (34°) from the flight level center
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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The core is obviously gone and the radar doesn’t look overly impressive over Baja. I’m wondering if the forecast is overdone outside of areas with local enhancements from terrain/elevation.

This area has seen incredible training of cells, as Hilary moves northward it should give parts of SW CA a lot of rain.

A big chunk of death valley has seen moderate rain all morning, and it doesn't take all that much to get flooding there. 

 

I wouldn't spike the ball just yet. 

Screenshot_2023-08-20-11-27-25-61_d742e5e24846c0b0ac98c1cecc909937.jpg

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  Other than 4-5PM on Friday (due to monsoon, not Hilary), LV has had fairly light hourly rain rates for the most part to this point. Due to the continuous nature of the rain over many hours, rain amounts have been heavy for LV relative to climo.

 On Friday 8/18, they received 0.30". But that was due to the monsoon flow rather than Hilary. This was the third heaviest on record for the date (back to 1937). Looking more closely, it appears that they got ~0.26" 4-5PM on 8/18, which is quite heavy for just one hour. Edit: That is the heaviest hourly rainfall since at least 8/11/2022.

 Yesterday 8/19 they got 0.21", which was largely from Hilary and was a record for the date as the old record was 0.18" (2003). Also, their high was only 79, a record low high that was 24 BN. Old record was 81 (2003).

 So far today, they have received ~0.10", which already has broken the record for today. The old record had been 0.06" (1975).

 So, for the period since Friday, LV has already received ~0.61" due to a combo of the monsoon and Hilary (near even split) with quite a bit more expected today from Hilary. The three day period 8/18-20 averaged only 0.02" during the period 1937-2022.

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Initial low skill models suggest 91L may take the big tour around the death ridge and may enhance the monsoon rains over areas already affected by Hilart.

 

Nothing in California as far as power outages, but TWC is showing their map that will show when power goes out.  Which might be more flood related than wind causation.  On satellite, Hilary is starting to look like a TC in the higher latitudes, which deep convection N of the center.  32N isn't high latitude on the E Coast, I don't know if it is shearing from the S or cooler water.

HilaryHighLatitude.jpg

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43 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

He does this with every single tropical system. Ignore him. 

Huh, I’m usually the one that overhypes everything. I think it’s going to be highly impactful but I think a lot of people on the coast are going to say, “what storm?”

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In Los Angeles we are already getting good rains with the band ahead of the low.  We are currently in a lull as we are in the space between the two competing lows, but as Hillary draws closer winds will turn offshore and I expect heavy training bands to set up tonight in advance of the center. 

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Just now, olafminesaw said:

Kinda looks like it's starting to orient more N to S, which would be bad news bears for whoever gets stuck under the band.

I was noticing that too. Things are definitely starting to go downhill. The training on that band tho. Hoping for a better outcome but we are going to see incredible videos

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