WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2023 Author Share Posted August 20, 2023 Vegas is without a long range radar? It’s down on RadarScope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Vegas is without a long range radar? It’s down on RadarScope. It's working for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 What a wild year for the mountains around San Diego. Six feet of snow and were there blizzard warnings to now tropical storm warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2023 Author Share Posted August 20, 2023 Recon currently investigating Hilary. Should be helpful to understand the rate of decay (of winds). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2023 Author Share Posted August 20, 2023 987.3mb extrapolated pressure so far with peak FL winds of 82kt and SFMR of 84kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2023 Author Share Posted August 20, 2023 970.8mb extrapolated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2023 Author Share Posted August 20, 2023 Interesting Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 5:25ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 Storm Name: HilaryStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2023 (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)Mission Number: 4Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 4:54:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.17N 114.67WB. Center Fix Location: 129 statute miles (208 km) to the SSW (197°) from Guerrero Negro, Baja California Sur, Mexico.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,866m (9,403ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 974mb (28.77 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 35° at 24kts (From the NE at 28mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 47kts (54.1mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the NE (35°) of center fix at 4:41:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 125° at 77kts (From the SE at 88.6mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix at 4:38:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 42kts (48.3mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the SW (221°) of center fix at 5:12:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 315° at 55kts (From the NW at 63.3mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 87 nautical miles (100 statute miles) to the SW (223°) of center fix at 5:18:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and PressureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) which was observed 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NE (38°) from the flight level center at 4:38:30ZMaximum Flight Level Temp: 12°C (54°F) which was observed 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (34°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 It's not often than you see dew points on the high 70's near the Salton See. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 On a side note LA County officials stated that they have gone through a year's supply of sand. http://www.lafd.org/news/lafd-provides-sandbags-homeowners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 RE: Las Vegas radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 The core is obviously gone and the radar doesn’t look overly impressive over Baja. I’m wondering if the forecast is overdone outside of areas with local enhancements from terrain/elevation. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The core is obviously gone and the radar doesn’t look overly impressive over Baja. I’m wondering if the forecast is overdone outside of areas with local enhancements from terrain/elevation. This area has seen incredible training of cells, as Hilary moves northward it should give parts of SW CA a lot of rain. A big chunk of death valley has seen moderate rain all morning, and it doesn't take all that much to get flooding there. I wouldn't spike the ball just yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Other than 4-5PM on Friday (due to monsoon, not Hilary), LV has had fairly light hourly rain rates for the most part to this point. Due to the continuous nature of the rain over many hours, rain amounts have been heavy for LV relative to climo. On Friday 8/18, they received 0.30". But that was due to the monsoon flow rather than Hilary. This was the third heaviest on record for the date (back to 1937). Looking more closely, it appears that they got ~0.26" 4-5PM on 8/18, which is quite heavy for just one hour. Edit: That is the heaviest hourly rainfall since at least 8/11/2022. Yesterday 8/19 they got 0.21", which was largely from Hilary and was a record for the date as the old record was 0.18" (2003). Also, their high was only 79, a record low high that was 24 BN. Old record was 81 (2003). So far today, they have received ~0.10", which already has broken the record for today. The old record had been 0.06" (1975). So, for the period since Friday, LV has already received ~0.61" due to a combo of the monsoon and Hilary (near even split) with quite a bit more expected today from Hilary. The three day period 8/18-20 averaged only 0.02" during the period 1937-2022. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: The core is obviously gone and the radar doesn’t look overly impressive over Baja. I’m wondering if the forecast is overdone outside of areas with local enhancements from terrain/elevation. I completely disagree. The worst is still to come 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Death Valley received .42 inches of rain the last two hours. Not going to take much more of that to cause major issues there. areas in interior San Diego county are already at 1-2 inches with a bunch left to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I completely disagree. The worst is still to come He does this with every single tropical system. Ignore him. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Initial low skill models suggest 91L may take the big tour around the death ridge and may enhance the monsoon rains over areas already affected by Hilart. Nothing in California as far as power outages, but TWC is showing their map that will show when power goes out. Which might be more flood related than wind causation. On satellite, Hilary is starting to look like a TC in the higher latitudes, which deep convection N of the center. 32N isn't high latitude on the E Coast, I don't know if it is shearing from the S or cooler water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Still no FFW with the event yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Looking at radar a slug of heavier rain is about to move into areas east of San Diego. I would expect to start seeing FFW's go up shortly once the precip rates increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 27 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Still no FFW with the event yet First one just went up north of LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2023 Author Share Posted August 20, 2023 Landfall northern Baja Peninsula at 65mph and 988mb 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 43 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: He does this with every single tropical system. Ignore him. Huh, I’m usually the one that overhypes everything. I think it’s going to be highly impactful but I think a lot of people on the coast are going to say, “what storm?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 For anyone who might be interested. These are links for live incident trackers for select agencies in S. Cali. https://cad.chp.ca.gov/Traffic.aspx https://webapps.sandiego.gov/sdfiredispatch/ https://ocfa.org/ActiveIncident/ActiveIncident.aspx https://app.lait911.com/ 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 In Los Angeles we are already getting good rains with the band ahead of the low. We are currently in a lull as we are in the space between the two competing lows, but as Hillary draws closer winds will turn offshore and I expect heavy training bands to set up tonight in advance of the center. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 The LA 911 link above is showing multiple flooding calls, a debris flow, and a water rescue…within the past hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Hella rain band about to move into the Salton Sea area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Hella rain band about to move into the Salton Sea area Kinda looks like it's starting to orient more N to S, which would be bad news bears for whoever gets stuck under the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Just now, olafminesaw said: Kinda looks like it's starting to orient more N to S, which would be bad news bears for whoever gets stuck under the band. I was noticing that too. Things are definitely starting to go downhill. The training on that band tho. Hoping for a better outcome but we are going to see incredible videos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 I don’t know if this is legitimate but if it is this is what’s heading towards the https://twitter.com/harrisonkrank/status/1693345986419024099?s=21 southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Here are a few flash flood warnings and measured 62mph wind gust 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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