Hurricane Hilary

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, hlcater said:

With the way things are going on satellite, I am not convinced that we have peaked in intensity. Think we make another run at 125-130kts tonight. Recon will tell.

 

[Normandy]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Once again, historic rainfall over the “perma” drought. Get away from the runoff areas and waterways and let this storm fix 15 years of drought in a few days. This is the absolute best thing that could have happened for the southwest, I’m tired of everyone putting a negative spin on something that (when the rain ends) will be the best thing that’s happened in a decade to help the local environment 

It’s hard to get away from run off areas because humans build near and around them (see the LA river for example).  it can’t be understated that this is a big hydro threat to so cal and the SW

[andyhb]

00z NAM 3 km is absolutely ridiculous rainfall wise and particularly in the orographic enhancement areas of the San Bernardino and San Jacinto mountains. Those totals (10-20” in less than 3 days) would be catastrophic for the surrounding runoff areas.

[WxWatcher007]

Recon has crossed over Mexico and reached the Pacific. Should be closing in on Hilary shortly. Given the length of the journey I’d expect another abbreviated recon period but we’ll see. 

[WxWatcher007]

No recon updates since my last post lol

[Normandy]

Seems like they found a steady state system based on the latest NHC update.  Either way weakening should start soon.  Already seeing signs on the NW side

[Chrisrotary12]

And the west side of the hurricane is gone. Was fun to look at for a while. Going to make it to Cali?

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, Normandy said:

It’s hard to get away from run off areas because humans build near and around them (see the LA river for example).  it can’t be understated that this is a big hydro threat to so cal and the SW

It will be their version of a Harvey or Florence with a year of rainfall for those areas in just a few days.

 

 

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be their version of a Harvey or Florence with a year of rainfall for those areas in just a few days.

 

 

It looks particularly bad and historically so. Doesn't matter if Hillary fals apart.

[dan11295]

Also, even though an actual CA landfall is looking less likely now (more like Northern Baja), that really has very little material impact on the actual flooding threat.

[SnowGoose69]

I checked Palm Springs daily precip records for 8/20 8/21 8.22 0.23 T 0.24    Strangely enough Las Vegas all time daily record for August is 2.58 on 8/21...that may not get broken

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I checked Palm Springs daily precip records for 8/20 8/21 8.22 0.23 T 0.24    Strangely enough Las Vegas all time daily record for August is 2.58 on 8/21...that may not get broken

 Also, 2.58" is the heaviest for any date of the year. And their second heaviest daily record for any date of the year occurred on the very next date, 8/22! (1.65")

 The record high two cal. day record is 2.59". That may be in danger.

[SolidIcewx]

Wonder if this storm will fall apart like Hurricane Lance did when it was approaching Hawaii a few years back

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be their version of a Harvey or Florence with a year of rainfall for those areas in just a few days.

 

 

Exactly, I feel like there is too much focus on winds and the structure of the storm. None of that matters when you’re pushing precipitable water values near 3” over serious mountains. There really aren’t any historical precedents for this. Except maybe some typhoons in places like the Philippines. There are going to be incredible videos of arroyos turning into raging torrents

[CheeselandSkies]

Never really followed weather in the far SW US before...just thought it was stupid that it has so many NEXRAD sites so close to each other when there are such huge gaps in tornado-prone areas of the Plains, Midwest and South...then I realized that KNKX and KSOX can't even see all the rain that is prompting the flash flood warning from just north of Calipatria to I-10 that KYUX can, because of the Peninsular Ranges.

[Tatamy]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be their version of a Harvey or Florence with a year of rainfall for those areas in just a few days.

 

 

One of the areas that stands the greatest risk WRT flash flooding will be the Coachella Valley of interior southern CA.  This is the region along I-10 from Palm Springs down to Indio and beyond.  Elevations in the valley itself range from near sea level to a few hundred feet.  The Valley is surrounded by high mountains with elevations of 10000 feet or more.  These mountains are solid rock and will catch the highest rainfall totals and strongest winds.  With no soils to speak of whatever rainfall that comes down will run straight down into the valley.  The valley itself has dry washes both natural and man created.  This is a desert region with sand only (It has the consistency of concrete) so there are no soils to speak of in which to absorb all of this water.  These washes will not be able to handle this runoff.  The destruction potential of this event in the deserts of Southern California cannot be over stated.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

One of the areas that stands the greatest risk WRT flash flooding will be the Coachella Valley of interior southern CA.  This is the region along I-10 from Palm Springs down to Indio and beyond.  Elevations in the valley itself range from near sea level to a few hundred feet.  The Valley is surrounded by high mountains with elevations of 10000 feet or more.  These mountains are solid rock and will catch the highest rainfall totals and strongest winds.  With no soils to speak of whatever rainfall that comes down will run straight down into the valley.  The valley itself has dry washes both natural and man created.  This is a desert region with sand only (It has the consistency of concrete) so there are no soils to speak of in which to absorb all of this water.  These washes will not be able to handle this runoff.  The destruction potential of this event in the deserts of Southern California cannot be over stated.

Yeah, we can see how serious the flash flooding was in Death Valley last summer when they had their historic rainfall which was lower than is being projected with Hillary.

 

 

[mempho]

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we can see how serious the flash flooding was in Death Valley last summer when they had their historic rainfall which was lower than is being projected with Hillary.

You are referring to the 1 in 1,000 year event last year?  

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, mempho said:

You are referring to the 1 in 1,000 year event last year?  

There have been so many in the last decade that they probably have to dramatically shorten the recurrence intervals for our warmer atmosphere that can hold much more moisture. They forgot to add the The Death Valley event last summer to the official list below. The most recent one was near West Point back in July. Several last summer also weren’t added to the list.

https://www.weather.gov/owp/hdsc_aep

 

 

[KPITSnow]

Really can’t believe there isn’t more discussions around this. This is likely something we won’t see again in our lifetimes and the interior flooding has a chance, as stated, to be 1000 year event. 
 

it’s kind of like the rareness of Ophelia a few years ago nearly making it to Ireland as tropical. 

[KPITSnow]

Also, does anyone have any idea on the 1938 storm actually being tropical or is that just a guess? I’m always dubious about those guesses on tropical systems in those days. I don’t remember the name of the storm but there was one apparently that went to Scandinavia as a tropical system in the 50’s?

[Bhs1975]

Really can’t believe there isn’t more discussions around this. This is likely something we won’t see again in our lifetimes and the interior flooding has a chance, as stated, to be 1000 year event. 
 
it’s kind of like the rareness of Ophelia a few years ago nearly making it to Ireland as tropical. 

I bet we will. Climate chaos.


.

[Chrisrotary12]

9 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It looks particularly bad and historically so. Doesn't matter if Hillary fals apart.

This

[olafminesaw]

The first real push of moisture of the main event making it's way into the high risk area. I would imagine the boiling hot waters of the Gulf of California will only intensify banding as the event progresses. 

[Amped]

6 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Wonder if this storm will fall apart like Hurricane Lance did when it was approaching Hawaii a few years back

This is a large circulation driving and atmospheric river into the southwest.  Large rain totals are inevitable even if the core of the storm falls apart faster than modeled.. A similar thing happened with Hurricane Irene in 2011, and there was still major flooding across the northeast.

[mempho]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

There have been so many in the last decade that they probably have to dramatically shorten the recurrence intervals for our warmer atmosphere that can hold much more moisture. They forgot to add the The Death Valley event last summer to the official list below. The most recent one was near West Point back in July. Several last summer also weren’t added to the list.

https://www.weather.gov/owp/hdsc_aep

 

 

My point was not really to derail the thread but just to get people to think a little bit about what's happening these days.  I realize that these thoughts are a downer.   

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, Amped said:

This is a large circulation driving and atmospheric river into the southwest.  Large rain totals are inevitable even if the core of the storm falls apart faster than modeled.. A similar thing happened with Hurricane Irene in 2011, and there was still major flooding across the northeast.

This is a highly anomalous upper air pattern that will help to maintain the record moisture plume much further from the Baja than we typically see. This type of jet stream and trough assist more commonly happens in the East allowing flooding rains well inland from the coastal plain.

 

[mempho]

47 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The first real push of moisture of the main event making it's way into the high risk area. I would imagine the boiling hot waters of the Gulf of California will only intensify banding as the event progresses. 

Looks like SSTs pushing 90F?

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, mempho said:

My point was not really to derail the thread but just to get people to think a little bit about what's happening these days.  I realize that these thoughts are a downer.   

I didn’t take it that way. These extreme rainfall events are becoming the new normal. It’s just something to be aware of for citizens and government agencies.

[SolidIcewx]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

This is a large circulation driving and atmospheric river into the southwest.  Large rain totals are inevitable even if the core of the storm falls apart faster than modeled.. A similar thing happened with Hurricane Irene in 2011, and there was still major flooding across the northeast.

Your are right I took a better look at the models. Crazy this is happening but expect the unexpected especially with the changing climate. Also the triple dip La Niña to a hard El Niño coming into play. Fascinating nonetheless