Hurricane Hilary

[WxWatcher007]

I know we rarely have separate threads for EPAC systems, but given the current NHC track and potential high impact in the SW US, I think it's worth a thread. 

Hilary is currently undergoing rapid intensification, with it attaining category two status as of the noon MDT (2pm EST) NHC intermediate advisory. As you can see on the recent IR image, an inner core has developed and we have an apparent attempt to clear the eye. The current environment for intensification is about as good as it gets, and this should easily reach major hurricane status. 

An anomalous steering pattern with an eastward shifting ridge and trough west of CA looks more likely, causing Hilary to move NW into Baja and potentially southern California. 

Despite the track and intensity forecast generally being solid, we still have significant uncertainty as Hilary approaches Baja and the SW US. 

 

In terms of impact, while it's novel to have an actual tropical storm in California, it looks like rainfall and flooding will be the main hazard, with a rare moderate risk for excessive rainfall for part of southern CA 

 

[CoastalWx]

Can't help but think this could be a massive hydro issue there. 

[WxWatcher007]

Considering that some of these areas don't get this much rain in a year, it could get real bad if this forecast verifies.  

 

[Windspeed]

Yeah, this is looking like a really significant flash flooding event for many areas of SoCal.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Looks baller on vis. Classic RI ongoing. 

[cptcatz]

Anyone know if recon will be flying into it?

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Anyone know if recon will be flying into it?

tomorrow.. looks like she is starting to really get going now 

[SnowGoose69]

Vegas might shutdown for like a week if they see even 2-3 inches of rain

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Vegas might shutdown for like a week if they see even 2-3 inches of rain

Don't they see significant rains during monsoon season on a regular basis? 

[Normandy]

depending on how the track plays out, this could be a hydro disaster for Los angeles.  If it comes in farther west and puts 6 inches of rain down in one day……I’m not even sure the Los Angeles river would stay in its banks.  Crazy times.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Don't they see significant rains during monsoon season on a regular basis? 

 

They do but for maybe 30-45 minutes, and even .30-.40 in that span can flood hotels/etc.  I think if they saw a day with several inches and periodically saw amounts over .50 in an hour they'd have big issues 

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Don't they see significant rains during monsoon season on a regular basis? 

Not widespread heavy rainfall like this.

[olafminesaw]

Convection wrapped fully around the eye the past couple frames. Could easily be a major by 8pm

[cheese007]

When was the last time a tropical cyclone made landfall in CA?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

3 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

When was the last time a tropical cyclone made landfall in CA?

1939.  

[eyewall]

Hurrevac has the storm at 100 mph near San Diego! I have a hard time buying that right now.

[WxWatcher007]

35 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

1939.  

1939 for a sea to land landfall, but I think 97 was the last time a designated TS was over CA. 

11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Hurrevac has the storm at 100 mph near San Diego! I have a hard time buying that right now.

Yeah I’d sell that. 

[WxWatcher007]

No special analysis here but Hilary is almost certainly a major hurricane now given the continuous improvement on IR especially the last few hours.

Now it’s a question of how high it can go. 
 

(time sensitive)

[hlcater]

Classic deep tropical cane right now with the rapidly cooling CDO and expansive spiral banding in all quadrants. Feel like the ceiling is pretty high over the next 24-36 hours.

[hlcater]

We'll also have recon tomorrow.

 

Quote

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171455
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1055 AM EDT THU 17 AUGUST 2023
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUGUST 2023
         TCPOD NUMBER.....23-079

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE HILARY
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 78
       A. 18/1730Z                   A. 19/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 0109E HILARY         B. AFXXX 0209E HILARY
       C. 18/1215Z                   C. 19/0015Z
       D. 18.5N 112.1W               D. 20.3N 113.3W
       E. 18/1700Z TO 18/2030Z       E. 19/0500Z TO 19/0830Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
       G. FIX                        G. FIX

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HOURLY FIXES. BEGIN
       6-HOURLY FIXES AT 20/1130Z.

$$
WJM/SET

NNNN

 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Vegas might shutdown for like a week if they see even 2-3 inches of rain

 Indeed! Per official LV records that go back to 1937, the heaviest two consecutive calendar day rainfall on record is 2.59" that fell August 20-21, 1957. That was also during an oncoming strong El Niño, coincidence or not. Next was the 2.10" of 12/28-9/2004 (weak El Niño). The 3rd heaviest was August 21-22, 2012 (warm neutral ENSO), when 2.03" fell. 
 

 So, 2 of the 3 heaviest were during August 20-22. The upcoming heavy rain threat looks to be centered on August 20-21!

[Amped]

Raw  T is now up to 6.7.   Still one crappy shower left in the eye that needs to clear out.

[TheDreamTraveler]

18z GFS has Hilary at 991mb at landfall in southern california. This is going to be interesting to track for sure. Even if it becomes post tropical at landfall or landfalls into the Baja instead the effects are going to be huge and problematic.

[NorthHillsWx]

Other than the flash flooding, isn’t this overall an excellent thing for the region to end the long term drought? Last winters snows and rains seemed extremely beneficial but this seems like it could be the nail in the coffin to end the drought many thought would never end just a year ago

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Other than the flash flooding, isn’t this overall an excellent thing for the region to end the long term drought? Last winters snows and rains seemed extremely beneficial but this seems like it could be the nail in the coffin to end the drought many thought would never end just a year ago

I’m not sure, but I spoke to a friend from LA and he said he’s hopeful this’ll act to suppress fire season. 

[NorthHillsWx]

45 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m not sure, but I spoke to a friend from LA and he said he’s hopeful this’ll act to suppress fire season. 

I know. I’m reading on here and it’s like doom and gloom with how “bad” it’s gonna be in the SW and I’m just thinking how people are worried that “a remnant tropical system hitting the most drought stricken part of the country over the last decade” is a bad thing… Like how was the drought going to end? Endless days of light rain in the southwest? This seems like the absolute best scenario possible after the great winter they had

[NorthHillsWx]

For years they’ve filled the news with pictures of lake Mead evaporating and this could possibly fill the lake up. Sounds like a win to me!

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I know. I’m reading on here and it’s like doom and gloom with how “bad” it’s gonna be in the SW and I’m just thinking how people are worried that “a remnant tropical system hitting the most drought stricken part of the country over the last decade” is a bad thing… Like how was the drought going to end? Endless days of light rain in the southwest? This seems like the absolute best scenario possible after the great winter they had

The terrain and soil types in the SW are not conducive for absorbing this much rainfall in such a short amount of times. Many locations are about to receive a year's worth of precipitation in under 72 hours. 

[Kevin Reilly]

57 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m not sure, but I spoke to a friend from LA and he said he’s hopeful this’ll act to suppress fire season. 

Yea fire season has been suppressed north way north!

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I know. I’m reading on here and it’s like doom and gloom with how “bad” it’s gonna be in the SW and I’m just thinking how people are worried that “a remnant tropical system hitting the most drought stricken part of the country over the last decade” is a bad thing… Like how was the drought going to end? Endless days of light rain in the southwest? This seems like the absolute best scenario possible after the great winter they had

 

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The terrain and soil types in the SW are not conducive for absorbing this much rainfall in such a short amount of times. Many locations are about to receive a year's worth of precipitation in under 72 hours. 

Well that’s the thing, right? It’s probably great for the basins, but in those desert and urban areas it just runs off. If it verifies God help people unaware enough to travel into some of those parks.