2023-24 Winter Speculation Thread

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

A few maps from NOAA. Not sure why they left December off.

 

 

 

 

All in all it looks like Mod/Strong Nino's lean slightly towards more snowy for most of us except West Tennessee and that happens a little more than half the time in this data set for most of us. So really, it looks like a 50/50 situation for most of the Valley. The far eastern areas/western NC have a bit better odds of more robust snow chances.

Yeah. Marginal Temps played a part as elevated area's got clocked on several occasions during the stronger Ninos, whereas lower eles would get mix or rain, therefore creating a greater than normal difference between the Valleys and the higher elevations. As far as western areas, Nino's tend to favor Eastern irt Snow, particularly when blocking is present, imo. 

[jaxjagman]

Really like to see the CFS right,this is a cold signal for us as we head towards Christmas into Jan,to me right now we are gonna get maybe BN around Thanksgiving and a potential warm up as we head into Dec

[nrgjeff]

Switching to 500 mb to catch the Ural Mountains ridge. One can see it in the Siberian snow cover chart too. Mongolia to Manchuria snow cover is building. 

This is long-term thinking, not the cold I infer from the mid-term thread. That Ural ridge could retrograde to Scandanavia. With GoA trough that'll pump warm air to the pole. Then after a warm December maybe break the PV.

Or climate trend blowtorch - wake me up in May. But if the mid-term cold does not disappoint, I might believe. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

No idea if the trend continues, but it has been a GOOD day re: modeling trends.  Great post by Grit re: the PDO and El Nino

 

[BuCoVaWx]

Just took this picture on my deck. Maybe a good sign for this coming winter, if you believe in the old folklore.

 

[jaxjagman]

Still hoping for a cold Christmas,dont feel like Christmas when its in the 60's+.CFS shows the MJO signal getting stronger into the WP,some of the Euro ensembles are showing something similar but still to much spread ATM to really believe

[jaxjagman]

MJO still looks decent today as we head towards winter.Euro today shows it climbing out of the COD into the WP mid Dec.CFS seems to be showing it possibly into Africa into week2 of Jan,but the CFS surely can change between now and then.Long range as we head past mid Dec has ridge in the east,EPS and GEFS both show this so it looks on QUE..IMHO ATM 

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

MJO still looks decent today as we head towards winter.Euro today shows it climbing out of the COD into the WP mid Dec.CFS seems to be showing it possibly into Africa into week2 of Jan,but the CFS surely can change between now and then.Long range as we head past mid Dec has ridge in the east,EPS and GEFS both show this so it looks on QUE..IMHO ATM 

What's you opinion when things could change for a colder pattern moving forward? After or around Christmas? Just curious 

[jaxjagman]

16 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

What's you opinion when things could change for a colder pattern moving forward? After or around Christmas? Just curious 

Not a very exciting look towards Christmas if you want cold.Trough in Mongolia and ridge in South East Asia.Both the GEFS and EPS show this.This POSSIBLY should be a -PNA and ridge in the east and possibly SER,right now

[Itryatgolf70]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Not a very exciting look towards Christmas if you want cold.Trough in Mongolia and ridge in South East Asia.Both the GEFS and EPS show this.This POSSIBLY should be a -PNA and ridge in the east and possibly SER

I guess it will take longer to get the mjo to the colder phases, perhaps after Christmas?

[jaxjagman]

4 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I guess it will take longer to get the mjo to the colder phases, perhaps after Christmas?

Yeah,just a waiting game it seems.It still has to get out of the Maritime and its gonna be there for the next several days

[Itryatgolf70]

3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Yeah,just a waiting game it seems.It still has to get out of the Maritime and its gonna be there for the next several days

Where can I go to see the actual location of the mjo? The rmm charts suck like the euro gfs bc

[jaxjagman]

https://frontierweather.dtn.com/climateandtools.html

 

https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/

 

 

[Itryatgolf70]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

https://frontierweather.dtn.com/climateandtools.html

 

https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/

 

 

I appreciate it.