2023-24 Winter Speculation Thread

[Carvers Gap]

20 hours ago, John1122 said:

Back to 1963-64. As noted, pretty much valley wide we were looking at less than .10 rainfall in October. 

November saw a return to precip and by late month, it got cold. There was a big post Thanksgiving snow storm that dropped 4 to 7 inches around the area. 

December was frigid. A fast starting Nino. It snowed 10 different days and was extremely cold leading towards Christmas, the biggest was just 3/4ths inch though. Then a major snowstorm hit. There was 6 inches of snow here on the 22nd and 7 more on the 23rd. Fairly widespread 6+ inch event for the region. 

New Years Eve didn't want to get left out, we had 6 inches on Dec 31st. 

December finished -10.5 imby. 

It snowed two more inches on Jan 1st. There was another 4 inch event on January 14th. After that the second half of January was warmish. The month ended up right at normal temp wise. 

February was warm for the first few days, then we had a rain to snow event on the 5th/6th with 5 inches of snow falling. 

Another 4 inch event came on the 19th-21st with long duration snow showers and temps in the 20s. 

We had a 5 inch event February 28th. 

March was mild. But we had nearly four feet of snow for the winter imby. And many of those events were valley wide. 

That's how things changed after that very bone dry October. 

These posts are awesome.  Thanks for the write-up.

[Carvers Gap]

Euro seasonals have been released.  Jan and Feb look really good.  Only thing that concerns me is that is is possibly going to initialize incorrectly with November.

[Carvers Gap]

I should note that the Euro seasonal looks like it is wrong at the surface (temps) for November, but its 500 maps look to be in line with other modeling.  December is forecast to be very warm.  Jan/Feb have a strong EPO/PNA ridge out West.  No idea if it is right, but that is a textbook Nino progression.  November is shown to be dry, but some relief for eastern areas of the forum during winter.

[Carvers Gap]

Will has the maps in the MA forum...

 

[Itryatgolf70]

41 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Will has the maps in the MA forum...

 

That would be typical niño progression, which normally is backloaded. Hate to give up December but most niños aren't cold in December. 

[fountainguy97]

Agree with all of you this AM. We ( especially @Carvers Gap) have been all over the somewhat typical nino progression this winter. 
 

I am out of my depth here but I've seen a lot of talk regarding this Nino and not seeing its full strength realized. The SSTs are strong maybe even super but the atmosphere may behave more like a moderate Nino this winter which I think would be fantastic for us. I'm just spitting out what I've seen several pro's mention. And it certainly seems to be the case so far with the dry spell recently.

 

Unfortunately, we may have to punt into Jan-Mar, but realistically that gives us the best odds for snow even if I'm impatient and want it now lol.  I do expect to see atleast a couple mountain events in December. 
 

As far as November snow.. yeah it's not happening. GFS is wall to wall torch more or less. Again probably a good thing longer term.

[Itryatgolf70]

6 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Agree with all of you this AM. We ( especially @Carvers Gap) have been all over the somewhat typical nino progression this winter. 
 

I am out of my depth here but I've seen a lot of talk regarding this Nino and not seeing its full strength realized. The SSTs are strong maybe even super but the atmosphere may behave more like a moderate Nino this winter which I think would be fantastic for us. I'm just spitting out what I've seen several pro's mention. And it certainly seems to be the case so far with the dry spell recently.

 

Unfortunately, we may have to punt into Jan-Mar, but realistically that gives us the best odds for snow even if I'm impatient and want it now lol.  I do expect to see atleast a couple mountain events in December. 
 

As far as November snow.. yeah it's not happening. GFS is wall to wall torch more or less. Again probably a good thing longer term.

That's the norm is warm every winter but we all just hope to have a few opportunities at some point this winter. Timing is always crucial 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said:

Agree with all of you this AM. We ( especially @Carvers Gap) have been all over the somewhat typical nino progression this winter. 
 

I am out of my depth here but I've seen a lot of talk regarding this Nino and not seeing its full strength realized. The SSTs are strong maybe even super but the atmosphere may behave more like a moderate Nino this winter which I think would be fantastic for us. I'm just spitting out what I've seen several pro's mention. And it certainly seems to be the case so far with the dry spell recently.

 

Unfortunately, we may have to punt into Jan-Mar, but realistically that gives us the best odds for snow even if I'm impatient and want it now lol.  I do expect to see atleast a couple mountain events in December. 
 

As far as November snow.. yeah it's not happening. GFS is wall to wall torch more or less. Again probably a good thing longer term.

Shoulder season modeling is whiplash city for me.  LOL.  

The last week of November I think we have to watch.  I agree w/ Cosgrove there, but I want to see the 12z ensemble suite before getting out over my skis.  I like the GFS/GEFS during shoulder season, but it was on its own overnight.   I can see us getting 1-2 weeks of cold later this month, and then it flipping warm.  

[GaWx]

 The 30 mb QBO (which I know @nrgjeffamong others follows closely) for Oct came in about as expected at -16.98. The closest El Niño summers/autumns to 2023 (analogs) since 1979 in terms of timing of peaks and valleys are 1986, 1991, 2009, and 2014. These had their first -QBO month within two months of the preceding July and had a -QBO throughout winter. 2023’s first -QBO month was July.

 The furthest El Niños from 2023 (anti-logs) in terms of timing since 1979 are 1982, 1987, 1994, 2015, and 2018. These all had their first -QBO month about a year earlier than the preceding July and had a +QBO throughout winter.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

[Itryatgolf70]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 30 mb QBO (which I know @nrgjeffamong others follows closely) for Oct came in about as expected at -16.98. The closest El Niño summers/autumns to 2023 (analogs) since 1979 in terms of timing of peaks and valleys are 1986, 1991, 2009, and 2014. These had their first -QBO month within two months of the preceding July and had a -QBO throughout winter. 2023’s first -QBO month was July.

 The furthest from 2023 (anti-logs) in terms of timing are 1982, 1994, 1987, 2015, and 2018. These all had their first -QBO month about a year earlier than the preceding July and had a +QBO throughout winter.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

Larry, I feel that will give us our best chances at blocking this winter and maybe an early SSWE event. Just speculation now

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Larry, I feel that will give us our best chances at blocking this winter and maybe an early SSWE event. Just speculation now

 1. El Niño DJF NAO

-QBO Analogs: two had a -NAO (1986-7 and 2009-10) and the other two had a +NAO (1991-2 and 2014-5). This 50% having a -NAO is actually pretty impressive considering that -NAO winters have been pretty rare (only 6 of the last 44 (14%) winters since 1979-80). Moreover, the only two -NAO El Niño winters of the 14 (14%) El Niños since 1979-80 are the QBO analog El Niños of 1986-7 and 2009-10. The other four -NAO winters (1984-5, 1995-6, 2010-1, and 2020-1) weren’t El Niño.

-QBO Anti-logs: all five had a +NAO.

 

2. El Niño DJF AO:

-QBO Analogs: two had a -AO (1986-7 and 2009-10) and the other two had a +AO (1991-2 and 2014-5). So, 50% had a -AO vs 36% of all 14 Nino winters since 1979-80 having a -AO.

-QBO Anti-logs: none had a -AO as 4 of the 5 (80%) were neutral and one (1994-5) had a +AO. I consider neutral AO to be between +0.5 and -0.5.

 

Conclusions for this winter’s NAO/AO based on above regarding current QBO combined with El Niño:

- Nothing overly conclusive since sample sizes are small and the analogs were 50-50 on -NAO/-AO.

- But -NAO chances this winter considering the current era of difficult to achieve -NAO winters may be enhanced somewhat due to current QBO vs where they’d be with different QBO timing.

- -AO chances this winter may be enhanced some due to current QBO.

- Both -NAO and -AO chances during El Niño winters would appear to be higher during analog QBO than during anti-log QBO.

- I’ve in the past not been one to use the QBO much, if any, in winter predictions due to what I’ve perceived to be too much variability of analogs and the difficulty of having large enough sample sizes with similar QBO timing. After all, this QBO table goes back only to 1979. But, I will say based on this latest analysis that I feel somewhat (but not dramatically) better about the chances of a -NAO and -AO this winter than I felt before I did this. To clarify, that doesn’t mean I’m saying either is likely though I will say that -AO winters have been less difficult to attain than -NAO winters since 1979-80. But I’ve been really down on the chances of a -NAO this winter based on how rare they’ve been since 1979-80 along with this winter’s expected high (>100) sunspot activity. All 6 -NAO winters since 1979-80 had low sunspot activity (all had 33 or less). Maybe the QBO/El Nino combo will trump the sunspots.

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 1. El Niño DJF NAO

-QBO Analogs: two had a -NAO (1986-7 and 2009-10) and the other two had a +NAO (1991-2 and 2014-5). This 50% having a -NAO is actually pretty impressive considering that -NAO winters have been pretty rare (only 6 of the last 44 (14%) winters since 1979-80). Actually, the only two -NAO El Niño winters of the 14 since 1979-80 are the QBO analog El Niños of 1986-7 and 2009-10. The other four -NAO winters (1984-5, 1995-6, 2010-1, and 2020-1) weren’t El Niño.

-QBO Anti-logs: all five had a +NAO.

 

2. El Niño DJF AO:

-QBO Analogs: two had a -AO (1986-7 and 2009-10) and the other two had a +AO (1991-2 and 2014-5). So, 50% had a -AO vs 36% of all 14 Nino winters since 1979-80 having a -AO.

-QBO Anti-logs: none had a -AO as 4 of the 5 (80%) were neutral and one (1994-5) had a +AO. I consider neutral AO to be between +0.5 and -0.5.

 

Conclusions for this winter’s NAO/AO based on above regarding current QBO combined with El Niño:

- Nothing overly conclusive since sample sizes are small and the analogs were 50-50 on -NAO/-AO.

- But -NAO chances this winter considering the current era of difficult to achieve -NAO winters may be enhanced somewhat due to current QBO vs where they’d be with different QBO timing.

- -AO chances this winter may be enhanced some due to current QBO.

- Both -NAO and -AO chances during El Niño winters would appear to be higher during analog QBO than during anti-log QBO.

- I’ve in the past not been one to use the QBO much, if any, in winter predictions due to what I’ve perceived to be too much variability of analogs and the difficulty of having large enough sample sizes with similar QBO timing. After all, this QBO table goes back only to 1979. But, I will say based on this latest analysis that I feel somewhat (but not dramatically) better about the chances of a -NAO and -AO this winter than I felt before I did this. To clarify, that doesn’t mean I’m saying either is likely though I will say that -AO winters have been much less difficult to attain than -NAO winters since 1979-80. But I’ve been really down on the chances of a -NAO this winter based on how rare they’ve been since 1979-80 along with this winter’s expected high (>100) sunspot activity. All 6 -NAO winters since 1979-80 had low sunspot activity (all had 33 or less). Maybe the QBO/El Nino combo will trump the sunspots.

Griteater mentioned something about sunspots a few weeks back and how they correlate to -nao or lack of one. He felt like it shouldn't matter for other reasons but you will have to look at it. I think it's in the weather discussion section 

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Griteater mentioned something about sunspots a few weeks back and how they correlate to -nao or lack of one. He felt like it shouldn't matter for other reasons but you will have to look at it. I think it's in the weather discussion section 

Griteater and some others, largely based on an external study, feel that the chance for a -NAO is enhanced this winter because of it still being during the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle despite approaching maximum. My analysis is based strictly on the last 44 winters since the winter -NAOs became scarce because of a perceived change in influences. The external study was based on going way further back than that and thus includes the prior era when -NAO winters were much more frequent.

 My analysis of the 6 -NAO winters since 1979-80:

1984-5: (NAO -0.70) (moderate La Niña) headed down in cycle 21 with limited sunspots averaging only 20/month; this was 20 months before the minimum of Sept 1986

1986-7: (NAO -0.30) (moderate El Niño) very early in cycle 22 four months after the Sept 86 minimum with very limited sunspots of only 6/month 

1995-6: (NAO -0.62) (moderate La Niña) headed down in cycle 22 with limited sunspots of only 12/month nine months before Sept 1996 minimum

2009-10: (NAO -1.67) (strong El Niño) one year into cycle 24 at 13 months after the Dec 2008 minimum just starting to head upward but with still limited sunspots of only 22/month

2010-11: (NAO -0.68) (strong La Niña) two years into cycle 24 at 25 months after the Dec 2008 minimum headed further up but still low at 33/month

2020-1: (NAO -0.42) (moderate La Niña) early into cycle 25 at 13 months after the Dec of 2019 minimum just starting to head up but still with limited sunspots of only 14/month

 So, these six were 20 months before min (1984-5), 4 months after min (1986-7), 9 months before min (1995-6), 13 months after min (2009-10) 25 months after min (2010-2), and 13 months after min (2020-1). So, these six averaged only 4 months after min, which isn’t really saying that much about it favoring ascending. To me it says a lot more about favoring being near min than favoring ascending. But that’s just my thinking.

[Carvers Gap]

Whether the QBO has a true correlation to colder weather IMBY, or it is simply connected to another "more real" driver...it is uncanny how many great winters have -QBOs.  Sometimes things look like they have a connection when they don't, but again, just crazy how it is present during really cold and/or winters.  Jeff would probably add that the descending phase of the QBO is best.  

[Carvers Gap]

Comparing 500mb patterns from the previous Euro seasonals to this current set...there is considerable improvement in what came out today.

[Itryatgolf70]

Since we have a -AAM background, despite the ocean being niño, how is that going to change? We may be stuck in mjo phases 4-6 all winter, which would be terrible, unless u like really warm in winter. I will always be optimistic, despite the nay sayers out there that we will get cold for a few weeks this winter to have our opportunity 

[John1122]

The 1960s are a different beast entirely when it comes to analogs, but 1965-66 was a strong Nino with a +2 peak in fall into early winter. 

October 1965 was dry with an inch or less of rain falling around the area as a rule. November 1965 was dry and warm as a rule. It finished +2 and was especially warm it's first week. Around 2 inches of precip fell for the month. 

December of 1965 started cold. A major cold front passed right at the end of November with highs in the mid 20s and lows in the lower teens on November 30th. It warmed up quickly and also finished +2. 

January 1966 (my brother was born Jan 20th) started warm. The first week was wet and had highs in the 50s. 

A pair of cold fronts were on the way. Behind the first, a fast shot of cold with light snow came by. The high on the 8th was 27 with a low of 12. It warmed all the way up to 51 on the 9th after a low of 13. The second cold front came through and pushed highs into the low 40s with lows in the 20s. Basically normal here for January. There was a dusting of snow. 

Another front passed on the 13th, with freezing rain on the 14th and two inches of snow on the 15th. Deeper cold pressed in behind that with highs in the 20s and low 30s with lows in the teens through the 20th. We had 3 days of snow that totaled an inch over that time frame. 

On the 22nd a major snow event happened across most of the valley region. 6 to 8 inches of snow fell. 

On the 26th 3 more inches of snow fell. 

Then on the 29th-31st a monster snowstorm hit with a massive arctic blast following it. 8-12 inches of snow was wide spread. We were -15 on the 30th and -19 on the 31st with highs of 6 and 10. 

We closed out January with 22 inches of snow and one of the coldest period ever and it had all happened after January 10th for the most part. 

The first five days of February were cold and it snowed each day. Then winter mostly ended. There was a wet snow in late February with 2 inches and 2 inches in early March. 

But that 2 or 3 weeks in January was just brutal. Otherwise from November through March we were generally AN. 

 

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

6 hours ago, John1122 said:

The 1960s are a different beast entirely when it comes to analogs, but 1965-66 was a strong Nino with a +2 peak in fall into early winter. 

October 1965 was dry with an inch or less of rain falling around the area as a rule. November 1965 was dry and warm as a rule. It finished +2 and was especially warm it's first week. Around 2 inches of precip fell for the month. 

December of 1965 started cold. A major cold front passed right at the end of November with highs in the mid 20s and lows in the lower teens on November 30th. It warmed up quickly and also finished +2. 

January 1966 (my brother was born Jan 20th) started warm. The first week was wet and had highs in the 50s. 

A pair of cold fronts were on the way. Behind the first, a fast shot of cold with light snow came by. The high on the 8th was 27 with a low of 12. It warmed all the way up to 51 on the 9th after a low of 13. The second cold front came through and pushed highs into the low 40s with lows in the 20s. Basically normal here for January. There was a dusting of snow. 

Another front passed on the 13th, with freezing rain on the 14th and two inches of snow on the 15th. Deeper cold pressed in behind that with highs in the 20s and low 30s with lows in the teens through the 20th. We had 3 days of snow that totaled an inch over that time frame. 

On the 22nd a major snow event happened across most of the valley region. 6 to 8 inches of snow fell. 

On the 26th 3 more inches of snow fell. 

Then on the 29th-31st a monster snowstorm hit with a massive arctic blast following it. 8-12 inches of snow was wide spread. We were -15 on the 30th and -19 on the 31st with highs of 6 and 10. 

We closed out January with 22 inches of snow and one of the coldest period ever and it had all happened after January 10th for the most part. 

The first five days of February were cold and it snowed each day. Then winter mostly ended. There was a wet snow in late February with 2 inches and 2 inches in early March. 

But that 2 or 3 weeks in January was just brutal. Otherwise from November through March we were generally AN. 

 

 

 

HL blocking was prominent in the 60's Winter's. 

[Carvers Gap]

While digging around for some more information on the AMO, I found this site by NASA.  Take a minute and watch the animation of Atlantic ocean temps during the past 125 years.  NO, we are not getting into a climate debate here.  As far as we know the AMO has been occurring for 1000s of years.  But watch the ocean cycles, and you can easily see how this would affect HL blocking.  The negative phase is what we need.  I am super guilty of the following, but when we use analogs from the opposite AMO cycle...they probably aren't super accurate.  The current cycle is a positive AMO.  That cuts our analog possibilities in half AND likely we are going to have use analogs from teh 1930s-1950s.  Throw in the PDO phase, and that further narrows down our analogs to a set which might not have enough dates to build a set. -AMO winters were definitely the coldest in my lifetime, and the next flips isn't likely until roughly 2030. 

Interestingly, the September/October Nino years with REALLY dry falls were during +AMO years...the mid60s AMOs were right around the flip to negative.  I do think that ties into what we are looking at somewhat.

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4895/

[Carvers Gap]

Even a modest dip in the AMO can result in colder winters.  Does anyone have an AMO data set which goes by month and is CURRENT to October 2023.  I can only find a data set current to Jan 2023.  Please share here if you have a link. 

Also, what is the current PDO daily number if you have it?

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Even a modest dip in the AMO can result in colder winters.  Does anyone have an AMO data set which goes by month and is CURRENT to October 2023.  I can only find a data set current to Jan 2023.  Please share here if you have a link. 

Also, what is the current PDO daily number if you have it?

Unfortunately, the AMO may not be a thing according to the person who actually thought he'd found it and gave it the name "AMO." 

Long article but he notes that the apparent AMO cycles can all be tied to external factors such as volcanic eruptions, solar activity and aerosols. 

He no longer sees evidence that there is an AMO. 

https://michaelmann.net/content/rise-and-fall-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Unfortunately, the AMO may not be a thing according to the person who actually thought he'd found it and gave it the name "AMO." 

Long article but he notes that the apparent AMO cycles can all be tied to external factors such as volcanic eruptions, solar activity and aerosols. 

He no longer sees evidence that there is an AMO. 

https://michaelmann.net/content/rise-and-fall-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation

Interesting.  The actual fluctuation of ocean SST temps in the northern Atlantic is real.  The animation depicts that.  Those colder SST temps there do coincide remarkably with colder temps here in E TN.   Just looking at the data sets, there is some sort of predictable oscillation present.   What i would like to find is a daily AMO number for tracking it. 

[Carvers Gap]

To follow up, I would imagine there is some sort of PDO equivalency present just south of Greenland (in the northern Atlantic).

[John1122]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Interesting.  The actual fluctuation of ocean SST temps in the northern Atlantic is real.  The animation depicts that.  Those colder SST temps there do coincide remarkably with colder temps here in E TN.   Just looking at the data sets, there is some sort of predictable oscillation present.   What i would like to find is a daily AMO number for tracking it. 

I know that we definitely have cooler weather when sea surface temperatures there are cooler. He just says it's not a true oscillation, i.e. driven entirely on its own, but coincidental to outside factors such as solar forcing, volcanic activity and aerosols in the 60s and 70s.  

He even went back an reanalyzed the 850-1850 period and found that if you took out solar forcing and volcanic events, that there was nothing there to indicate an oscillation, and that overlayed, every peak and valley was centered around those events. 

I would guess that it's just very unlikely we ever go through long time periods without eruptions or solar forcing being a factor. 

After reading it, I'm not getting my hopes up there will be a flip without something to force it. But maybe he's wrong. 

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I know that we definitely have cooler weather when sea surface temperatures there are cooler. He just says it's not a true oscillation, i.e. driven entirely on its own, but coincidental to outside factors such as solar forcing, volcanic activity and aerosols in the 60s and 70s.  

He even went back an reanalyzed the 850-1850 period and found that if you took out solar forcing and volcanic events, that there was nothing there to indicate an oscillation, and that overlayed, every peak and valley was centered around those events. 

I would guess that it's just very unlikely we ever go through long time periods without eruptions or solar forcing being a factor. 

After reading it, I'm not getting my hopes up there will be a flip without something to force it. But maybe he's wrong. 

Interesting, so maybe the AMO is a consequence of solar forcing or volcanic events or even something else.  By measuring the AMO, we are simply seeing a consequence of a greater driver or even measuring a different oscillation of sorts.  I often wonder if the QBO is similar?

I have always been interested in that region (NAO being the main factor).  I took one meteorology class in college so I know just enough atmospheric physics to to be dangerous!  My professor was a met for ORNL.  Anyway, after reading your paper, here are a couple I am looking at...

Various NAO correlations

More of the same

And as you know as well, the NAO is incredibly difficult to predict.  So things like 10-50mb strat warming over the pole is interesting as would the longer term AMO signature.  I feel (though am not certain) that the NAO clusters(of negative values) is more closely relate to a -AMO(for lack of a better term...colder SSTs in the North Atlantic). 

 

[Daniel Boone]

Good discussion guy's. If had time I'd chime in. Btw, the n. Atlantic SST'S are looking better wrt assisting the - NAO and 50-50. With the strong Nino and warm SST's around the Aleutians and Japan the PAC may argue for a Western Trough even with a +PNA at least part of the time so, hopefully N.Atlantic blocking will be prevalent and formidable. Of course, will once again run the risk of ser/ nao linkage unfortunately if that western Trough digs enough imo. 

       

[nrgjeff]

SST trends are somewhat encouraging RE the PDO. Snapshot still isn't great, but the trend. (not shown)

And look what's back. HP at the pole. Even better, it's driven by a Ural Mtns high.

Then the snow pattern is doing what one would expect. Ural high. Stormy south of Siberia. I love it baby! 

[GaWx]

 Latest WCS daily PDO (11/6) is -0.94 after dipping back to -1.03 on 10/31. Keep in mind though that the NOAA equivalent daily PDO has been much lower and could very well be near or even lower than -2.00 as Oct came in at -2.36 vs WCS’ ~-1.00:

[Carvers Gap]

Here is Huffman's forecast:

https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1721953621439381790?s=20

[John1122]

A few maps from NOAA. Not sure why they left December off.

 

 

 

 

All in all it looks like Mod/Strong Nino's lean slightly towards more snowy for most of us except West Tennessee and that happens a little more than half the time in this data set for most of us. So really, it looks like a 50/50 situation for most of the Valley. The far eastern areas/western NC have a bit better odds of more robust snow chances.