2023-24 Winter Speculation Thread

[Carvers Gap]

10 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Euro is relying too much on classic El Nino. I'm more with the climate trend and CFS. Blowtorch. No hope.

I can feel the positive vibes about winter, Jeff!!!!  j/k of course... Have a great weekend, man!

[fountainguy97]

I've seen ALOT of different sources point to a classic Miller A swath of + snowfall anomalies across the SE and Mid Atlantic recently.

looks like back loaded winter is heavily favored as well. 
 

sources: trackersacker twitter

Brian Brettschneider twitter

ben noll twitter

[fountainguy97]

Ben Noll has some epic stuff. 
 

Jan-Feb look absolutely rocking along with the basin wide El-Nino. Hard not to like this.

 

 

note the strong -PDO. Does it play the grinch this winter? 

 

All in all I'd expect the back half of winter to be pretty lively. Hopefully we get some action in the front half. I don't want to wait 5 more months for February to roll around haha.

[Itryatgolf70]

From what I understand, the atmosphere is more of a weak niño response currently. It probably will change as we get closer to start of winter though. Mjo 4-6 is bad for us, which we was in during the amazing warm dec 2015, but we got lucky and jan-march gave us a few opportunities 

[Carvers Gap]

On 9/5/2023 at 8:31 AM, *Flash* said:

Did anyone catch JB's 2023-24 winter weather forecast? Too soon to be putting these maps out in my opinion. Plus, why do I get the feeling our viewing area finds itself in the blue almost every year? Latest trends seem to suggest a stronger ENSO with effects pushing further into the fall/early winter. Unless that -PDO signal backs off and/or unless we get a more 'Modoki' look, I lean towards a milder winter with the classic hyperactive STJ bringing in an above average amount of precip/cloud cover days. Will likely be sticking with this take until I see overwhelming evidence to the contrary. 

 

Looks like that is the official prelim map which was just released....

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Too bantery?

 

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Too bantery?

 

That can't be good.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Too bantery?

 

Folks in Greenland(after looking at the 12z CMC are like, "Yep, summer is over."  That is a -46F wooly worm.

[nrgjeff]

It's probably more accurate than some long-range models. I'll allow the wooly worm!

[Carvers Gap]

A good read...

https://www.ashevillewx.com/weatherupdate/2023-2024-nc-winter-forecast?fbclid=IwAR2G6SDVxTMqrT4vGJtQz-pDFZOogN57ZgaCfzTfNPG2vSh2S6hGvcDcLEc

 

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

A good read...

https://www.ashevillewx.com/weatherupdate/2023-2024-nc-winter-forecast?fbclid=IwAR2G6SDVxTMqrT4vGJtQz-pDFZOogN57ZgaCfzTfNPG2vSh2S6hGvcDcLEc

 

Hunter does a great job! We are glad to have him on the forum. 

[Carvers Gap]

Accuweather discussion which seems reasonable...

https://snowbrains.com/accuweather-releases-23-24-winter-forecast-el-nino-could-bring-a-repeat-of-last-winter-to-the-west/?fbclid=IwAR3YZ6GRmfQ7wjhsI0gkYHMzBNy2C-35Su5_MtFWRgEcTbFz-EJoIf8deu8

 

[Itryatgolf70]

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Accuweather discussion which seems reasonable...

https://snowbrains.com/accuweather-releases-23-24-winter-forecast-el-nino-could-bring-a-repeat-of-last-winter-to-the-west/?fbclid=IwAR3YZ6GRmfQ7wjhsI0gkYHMzBNy2C-35Su5_MtFWRgEcTbFz-EJoIf8deu8

 

Paul Pastelok is pretty good overall. Like he said that each niño is different. Overall, this winter will be warm, but how warm is the million dollar question. Most are hoping we can get enough moisture and cold air at least one time this winter at some point.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Accuweather discussion which seems reasonable...

https://snowbrains.com/accuweather-releases-23-24-winter-forecast-el-nino-could-bring-a-repeat-of-last-winter-to-the-west/?fbclid=IwAR3YZ6GRmfQ7wjhsI0gkYHMzBNy2C-35Su5_MtFWRgEcTbFz-EJoIf8deu8

 

-PDO along with Strong El Nino should equate to Heavy Snows in at least Central and Southern areas of the West. The worries imo irt to downstream effects in our area are if the STJ comes further North in the West and Lp's  forming,whereby possibly pulling the Polar Jet South westward and forcing downstream ridging and flooding us with warmth. 

     We'll need strong blocking to counter that. 

[Carvers Gap]

57 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

-PDO along with Strong El Nino should equate to Heavy Snows in at least Central and Southern areas of the West. The worries imo irt to downstream effects in our area are if the STJ comes further North in the West and Lp's  forming,whereby possibly pulling the Polar Jet South westward and forcing downstream ridging and flooding us with warmth. 

     We'll need strong blocking to counter that. 

The fire hose is going to be cranking.  I suspect(though am by no means certain) that we are entering an era of -NAO blocking(decade type stuff).  I think the QBO will help.  The further west one gets in the forum area, the worse the storm track IMHO.  The drought(which was predicted quite accurately while it was still raining buckets here) is probably of more concern.  If the drought breaks, I feel better about our chances.  And yes, the PDO phase is the opposite of optimal.  I do think we see split flow.  Cosgrove notes that increased rainfall in SoCal would be a good sign this fall.  With a strong Nino, no doubt warmth will overtake the pattern at times.  I think we flip back and forth between zonal Pacific air and Canadian (not Arctic) in terms of air masses.  E TN and the mountains "should" have the best shots."  I do think the MJO will be the main driver this winter, and that should result in some phase 8 rotations(and slowly at that).  We generally do better when the phase of La Nina or Nino is weak for sure.

[Daniel Boone]

I agree totally with you Carver. I was just listing the fear of said outcome.

    Even the super Strong Ninos of 82-83 and 97-98 featured some major Snow Storms in our area. The PDO is the biggest concern I believe as an east based Nino doesn't appear to be a problem now . '09-10 however, had a -PDO(not as pronounced )and was snowy. Blocking was great that Winter as we all know. 

     MJO pretty much a guarantee of traversing cold phases at decent amp. So, yeah it will have an affect. 

  My thoughts at this juncture are an overall average Winter Temperature wise if blocking is dominant and above average Snowfall. If no sustainable blocking, milder than average with below average Snowfall. Pretty much what many probably think considering the Global Drivers. The -QBO along with the favorable MJO outlook may very well assist in accomplishing blocking scenario as is a no brainer. 

[Itryatgolf70]

2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

I agree totally with you Carver. I was just listing the fear of said outcome.

    Even the super Strong Ninos of 82-83 and 97-98 featured some major Snow Storms in our area. The PDO is the biggest concern I believe as an east based Nino doesn't appear to be a problem now . '09-10 however, had a -PDO(not as pronounced )and was snowy. Blocking was great that Winter as we all know. 

     MJO pretty much a guarantee of traversing cold phases at decent amp. So, yeah it will have an affect. 

  My thoughts at this juncture are an overall average Winter Temperature wise if blocking is dominant and above average Snowfall. If no sustainable blocking, milder than average with below average Snowfall. Pretty much what many probably think considering the Global Drivers. The -QBO along with the favorable MJO outlook may very well assist in accomplishing blocking scenario as is a no brainer. 

None of the strong niños had a -pdo this intense, except in 1876. There really are alot of conflicting signals and more than normal this winter

[Matthew70]

On 9/29/2023 at 12:18 PM, nrgjeff said:

It's probably more accurate than some long-range models. I'll allow the wooly worm!

I second this!  Better chance with nature predicting winter than throwing darts like we do with the LR models. 

[Matthew70]

10 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Accuweather discussion which seems reasonable...

https://snowbrains.com/accuweather-releases-23-24-winter-forecast-el-nino-could-bring-a-repeat-of-last-winter-to-the-west/?fbclid=IwAR3YZ6GRmfQ7wjhsI0gkYHMzBNy2C-35Su5_MtFWRgEcTbFz-EJoIf8deu8

 

To me seems also to f conflicting predictions.  Especially for middle TN.  One say milder with less snow.  Other says 125% average snow.  Gotta love nature.  She’s full of surprises. 

[Carvers Gap]

October ECMWF seasonal is out....looks good.  

Key takeaways:

1.  Jan/Feb EPO ridge

2.  Jan/Feb EPO ridge

3.  Jan/Feb EPO ridge

Cold dumps in the West for December.  SER in the southeast also for December.  Trough builds into the East second half of winter.  Pretty classic Nino progression - textbook.  Not saying any of that happens, but that is the general look.  Much more Pacific driven pattern with less Atlantic blocking.  BUT, the precip pattern definitely signals coastals as the primary storm track.  

[Carvers Gap]

October has some value on seasonal modeling for winter, but not near us much as November.  Good run, but want to see that hold for one more run.  November is the money run.  The CFS seasonal this morning is also showing a warm December.  That would make sense, especially IF the current trend to a cooler October is a pattern change.  Cool temps from October to mid-November.  Warm temps from mid-November to first or second week of January.  Then, winter hits.  That pattern fits a lot of what we have discussed here.  I do think modeling is riding almost purely with analog packages right now, which is why November is important.  November's run may well have some actual 3-4 week forecast rigor which will help.  One thing about the Euro seasonal run which just came out...source regions for it would be cold unlike the previous run - coldest air on this side of the planet.  NO IDEA IF THAT VERIFIES!  Huge grains....

[Carvers Gap]

Just went over to the MA forum...here are the maps from Weather Will.  Will noted, and I would concur, that the ECMWF seasonal has a warm bias at this range.  If we aren't torching on those maps, generally that is a good thing.  They are colder than lost month.  If I get a chance I will post some comparison maps - side by side.  Feel free to post the same if you don't see mine posted yet.  Comparison maps are pretty powerful at this stage as one can see which way modeling is trending.  Trend (for now) is a Pacific driven pattern which would be good news given the strength of the Nino.  Whether we can get a ridge where the -PDO is...BIG question.  One can see some PDO influence as the trough is slightly further west than it was the previous run.  Very common to see winter start early during an El Nino winter out West...and then collapse during January and February.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

Also, nice write-up by @GaWx, and the correlation of October to the rest of winter....

 

[Carvers Gap]

15 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

I agree totally with you Carver. I was just listing the fear of said outcome.

    Even the super Strong Ninos of 82-83 and 97-98 featured some major Snow Storms in our area. The PDO is the biggest concern I believe as an east based Nino doesn't appear to be a problem now . '09-10 however, had a -PDO(not as pronounced )and was snowy. Blocking was great that Winter as we all know. 

     MJO pretty much a guarantee of traversing cold phases at decent amp. So, yeah it will have an affect. 

  My thoughts at this juncture are an overall average Winter Temperature wise if blocking is dominant and above average Snowfall. If no sustainable blocking, milder than average with below average Snowfall. Pretty much what many probably think considering the Global Drivers. The -QBO along with the favorable MJO outlook may very well assist in accomplishing blocking scenario as is a no brainer. 

As usual, great stuff, Boone.  Hope I didn't sound contrarian.   Again, all great points.  

[Itryatgolf70]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

As usual, great stuff, Boone.  Hope I didn't sound contrarian.   Again, all great points.  

-pdo makes sense with trough out west, especially start of winter. Million dollar question is how long trough out west lasts? Imo, one would want to see the niño become more central based moving forward to have a back loaded winter, which is typical of niños. One would also think with the stronger niño that would force pdo less negative. Lots to iron out

[fountainguy97]

18 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

-pdo makes sense with trough out west, especially start of winter. Million dollar question is how long trough out west lasts? Imo, one would want to see the niño become more central based moving forward to have a back loaded winter, which is typical of niños. One would also think with the stronger niño that would force pdo less negative. Lots to iron out

This lines up with most of my thinking. We start mild and end cold. This doesn't mean a complete toss until February but I think we will be dominated by a -PNA early on.  I think the ENSO progression you mention (moving central) appears to be likely but this won't be a full blown Modoki. Just transitioning to basin-wide.  

The only fly is the PDO. I doubt we see it flip to positive. Does it completely overrun the Nino or does it just offset the strong Nino? That's the question. 

The Euro seasonal show this progression extremely well. And honestly we take our chances with the best pattern occurring in the best months of winter. I just hope December isn't a complete washout.
 

Here is my average snowfall per month over the last 4 La nina winters:

Nov 1.15
Dec 1.7
Jan 4.025
Feb 5.2
Mar .9

I'll take the bait and hope February has the best pattern! 

[Carvers Gap]

Good to see the PDO getting more press.  My drivers this winter are probably still the same.

1.  El Nino shifting to basing wide by mid/late-winter(completely reversed to Nina by next summer?)

2.  MJO

3.  PDO

4.  QBO/potential for subsequent Atlantic blocking.  

Overall, no changes to my original ideas at this point.......One tweak which may be required is to add more wintry precip to the far western areas of the forum (if the Euro seasonal is correct).  For now, I am not going to "bite" on that look quite yet.  I have noticed seasonal modeling often trends to whatever is in the 2-4 week range, and then just perpetuates it erroneously.  

Of note, a lot of great posters no longer place their ideas on public forums or websites.  Why?  One, accuracy is still very tough to come by w/ seasonal forecasting.  Two, nobody likes being wrong so often!  Generally, I try to go with large scale pattern looks, and steer very clear from detailed areas of particular regions.  That said, I have tried to make sure there is a bit of added detail for our forum area, but that comes with the risk of being more inaccurate.  I say this often...our forum area is affected by four bodies of water(Pac, Atlantic, GOM, and the GL), multiple mountain ranges, and the Great Plains to our West.  Lots to juggle....this area is very tough to forecast even on a 5-7 day scale.

 

On June 16 I hade this:

This would be my overall winter forecast if pressed:

Temps

Dec:  AN

Jan: Much AN start/sesaonsal to BN to end the month

Feb:  Seasonal 

(If the Nino is classified as strong or super....much AN temps all months)

Precip normal to AN.

Snow.....BN for middle and west TN.  E TN, especially NE TN/W NC/ SE KY/ SW VA will be dependent on a storm track which should favor the Piedmont or coast during late Jan to early Feb.  Whether we get enough cold air in place to help is a giant question mark.  Nino winters are often 1-2 big storms along w/ lots of slush during other events.  The bitterly cold intrusions of last winter would be less likely.  This is more track dependent w/ "just enough" cold in place.  If this is a super Nino, warmth/zonal will potential overwhelm the pattern, and everyone strikes out.  If the super/strong Nino can hold off until next spring, there should be a window for winter weather during the aforementioned months.

And this is the more specific "forecast" from August 17:

This wx pattern is one which often favors E TN. I made no bones about it when it came to last winter's forecast for NE TN and SW VA- it was going to be sparse, especially towards the mountains.  At this moment, I would literally flip last season's forecast for all regions of the forum area.  "Right now" the Nino is depicted by seasonal modeling as shifting to a basin wide event by Jan.  I think we start as east based and transition steadily to a basin wide event.  The 90s were Nino predominantly = snow dome for Nashville.  The 2000s have had many more La Ninas = often a good pattern for Nashville and points westward.  SST forecasts are notoriously fickle - I have been burned more times than I can count at this range. 

Temps/Precip/snowfall:

Dec:

eastern forum areas: normal to above/above/below

middle forum areas: normal to above/above/normal to below

western forum areas:  normal to above/above/normal to below

Jan:

eastern forum areas:  starts above and moves to seasonal/above/seasonal

middle forum areas:  above/seasonal to below(edit)/below

western forum areas:  above/above/below

Feb:

eastern forum areas:  BN to much BN / above / above

middle forum areas:  normal / seasonal to below(edit) / below

western forum areas: normal /above / much below

March:

Yes, March during El Nino's

eastern forum areas: BN / above / above

middle forum areas: BN/ above / crap shoot

western forum areas: BN/ above / crap shoot

 

Overall Season (Dec-March):

eastern forum areas: normal / above / normal to above

middle forum areas:  above / seasonal to slightly BN(edit) / below

western forum areas:  above / seasonal to slightly BN (edit) / below

 

Over-reaching ideas:

When it snows, the storms could be big.  El Nino seasons are often not nickel and dime stuff.  The primary pattern is coastal storms with secondary as inland runners.  There are always some cutters - we live in the South!  Cold sources will likely be an issue, but the storm track for E TN could potentially be good.  As others have noted, east based El Ninos don't favor a good winter pattern for all but the most eastern sections of the forum areas.  A super Nino which is east based is a bust for all regions.  Basin wide(which I expect from mid to late winter) favors E TN and the NC mountains.  I don't foresee week after week of snow on snow - unless you live in the mountains.  What I do think we see are big storms which bring us to average - maybe even just one storm.  The pattern should be active.   The trick is getting the cold to get far enough south while the STJ is absolutely ripping.  I think the MJO will favor trips into colder phases as plots 7-8-1 should have active convection.  The PDO is the wildcard...to repeat...the PDO is the wildcard.  To have a banner winter, we need it to flip from its phase last winter.

Of note:  Seasonal forecast is often woefully inaccurate.  I am basing my forecast on the Pacific driving the pattern - ridge out West, mean trough in the East. Get that trough east of Hawaii(per the Euro seasonals), that is a money pattern.  As always, it is important to remember that we live in a place where it wants to rain for about 48 weeks out of the year.  In Wyoming it is rare to see rain during DJFM.  Here, it is quite the opposite in the sub tropics.  It wants to rain.  But...there are times when we can coax a decent pattern from the chaos.  

[Carvers Gap]

Now for some way-way-way out there ideas...I think the 24-25' winter would be similar to a composite analog of the past three winters(not including the upcoming one).  We had better hope that El Nino has some hangover effect next summer...otherwise, July/August next summer could be very hot against the norms.  I would likely say that next summer is of the "endless" variety unless the Nino unexpectedly hangs on.   Next winter could flirt with strong Nina status.....and that is torch city.  But who knows, it could do exactly the opposite!

[GaWx]

On 10/5/2023 at 11:08 AM, Carvers Gap said:

Also, nice write-up by @GaWx, and the correlation of October to the rest of winter....

 

 Thank you. As I said, I prefer BN temps in all seasons. That’s enough reason for me to root for this month as a whole to average BN in the SE. However, there’s the additional reason that I wrote about in the post you linked, an apparent partial correlation of a BN SE Oct and a BN SE subsequent winter during El Niño. So, whereas having a BN Oct doesn’t of course come close to guaranteeing a BN winter, it appears to mean an increased chance vs if Oct isn’t BN. The models are continuing to signal that the chance for a BN Oct is a very realistic and increasing possibility as of now. For example, the EPS and weeklies have had a cooling trend for week 2 over recent days.

 Here is the average for Octobers preceding some of the coldest SE US El Niño winters:

 

[fountainguy97]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thank you. As I said, I prefer BN temps in all seasons. That’s enough reason for me to root for this month as a whole to average BN in the SE. However, there’s the additional reason that I wrote about in the post you linked, an apparent partial correlation of a BN SE Oct and a BN SE subsequent winter during El Niño. So, whereas having a BN Oct doesn’t of course come close to guaranteeing a BN winter, it appears to mean an increased chance vs if Oct isn’t BN. The models are continuing to signal that the chance for a BN Oct is a very realistic and increasing possibility as of now. For example, the EPS and weeklies have had a cooling trend for week 2 over recent days.

 Here is the average for Octobers preceding some of the coldest SE US El Niño winters:

 

Gfs sees you and raises you.