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Farmers Almanac says Winter 2024 could be a snowy one / thoughts ?


Brasiluvsnow
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  • 3 weeks later...

This is from the home page for the *Old* Farmer's Almanac.  If I'm being honest, with the Northeast comfortably in the Snowy zone, this map evokes memories of those awesome 'A Look Ahead' maps from The Weather Channel in the 1980s.  Memories as strong as childhood memories of the aroma of Mom's Sunday dinner.

 

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You know what sells magazines? Big proclamations about lots of snow. Serious look at it, sounds like we will be wall to wall winter, which we know we won't be, but that is what sells. If they said "average year" sales would slump. Anyone selling you a forecast in September for February is just in it for the money. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I think we'll get above average snowfall, but not the least influenced by the Farmer's Almanac.

There will be many different dynamics in play, but foundationally we are looking at a strengthening, east based El Nino. The only composite that I have recorded that meets that criteria is 1952-1953 which ended up finishing with above normal snowfall for much of the Northeast U.S. I'm sure others will chime in that additional years meet that criteria but nonetheless I think signals will point to an active winter. Time allowing, I would like to put out a seasonal forecast to see how it compares this this analog. NYC reported between 13-15" of snowfall that winter.

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I would say it's about time for a cold, snowy winter, and mild ridge conditions in west will favor your side of continent in 2023-24. FA may scrape out a win but it won't be some "big winter" just a bit better compared to some recent stinkers. It needs to be kept in mind, even so, two consecutive mild, snowless winters already occurred 1931-32 and 1932-33, also several in a row around 1989 to 1991. 

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For your review in a CNN headline on-line today September 25, 2023.  https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/25/weather/el-nino-winter-us-climate/index.html

I'd like to see all long rangers participating on American Weather, post their winter Outlooks (DJF) by 830AM October 19, 2023 when the NWS tends to release their official winter outlook--around that date. 

Below are excerpts from CNN as posted today: Gives us a chance to monitor strength of El Niño and possible impacts.  

I'm hoping Don Sutherland and others who normally participate on American Weather and/or other forums, and not necessarily locked into the NYC subforum, would be able to comment on the potential.

Myself: I accept long ranging as less confidently reliable than our week one-two forecasts, but this science will gradually improve as more research and capabilities are applied.  

Screen Shot 2023-09-25 at 10.06.16 AM.png

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 9/22/2023 at 3:01 PM, Roger Smith said:

I would say it's about time for a cold, snowy winter, and mild ridge conditions in west will favor your side of continent in 2023-24. FA may scrape out a win but it won't be some "big winter" just a bit better compared to some recent stinkers. It needs to be kept in mind, even so, two consecutive mild, snowless winters already occurred 1931-32 and 1932-33, also several in a row around 1989 to 1991. 

Yeah this recent stretch has not concerned myself as much as others, as I lived through the 1980 through 1999 snow drought. This feels like the furnace, snowless years of 96/97 through 99/00. This is why I am not overly enthusiastic about the looming el nino, as there was an El nino dud in that time frame as well. 

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2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the 80s were frigid

Yeah this resembles the 90s more from a temps perspective.

I hated the 80s for freezing cold, warm up and rain, back to freezing cold or outright suppression.

Outside of 93, 94 and 96 winters were non-existent. At least it was warm.

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