August long range

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Models have a big -AO developing

https://ibb.co/Cpynb4Y

^With +PNA some of the time, it may keep us cooler

https://ibb.co/RpyjfYM

Here's the correlation (+)

https://ibb.co/hZN7RP6

May be cooler in the UM, I wouldn't forecast a heat wave until the pattern changes.. that takes us to mid/late August. 

[H2O]

This will be gone by winter

[H2O]

-ao/+pna is what we want for winter, not summer

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is a really strong pattern. 

https://ibb.co/k6CWVwz

You're right, it usually happens in the Winter. 

August will probably have a negative departure. 

[paulythegun]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Since the El Nino broke +0.5c, we have had more +PNA's than -PNA, which for now breaks the trend of -PNA that we saw in the +ENSO years of 18-19, and 19-20.  February will be a big test.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

Just let me know when we will finally get an area-wide rain threat.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Models shifted warmer today. I've actually never seen such a great 1-day change over the PNA region. 

https://ibb.co/9yw36D5

With a somewhat stronger SE flow in the medium-range, I would watch for a severe wx threat Aug 7-10, as the +PNA cold front moves through for mid-month. Models are showing this Aleutian low on the order of -300dm Days 8-10. 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 8/2/2023 at 12:17 PM, paulythegun said:

 

Come November, it will flip and show a raging +NAO and SE ridge.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

See, we are seeing this happen again. -NAO's are associated with our warmest times.  Inversely, +NAO's could be associated with our coldest times. If this continues into the Winter, I think it could be particularly snowy/wet, given the El Nino.

https://ibb.co/fndjcLL

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Pretty nice August warm up here..

https://ibb.co/VBYN03V

I should have guessed when summer max's started passing, we would finally get warm. 594+dm

Crazy how these things continue to happen with a -NAO/AO.

[StormyClearweather]

Gross

[Eskimo Joe]

^yes. 

[aldie 22]

feels like the area is about to go dry again even those who have gotten wet...tough news for the many who have remained dry

[hstorm]

11 hours ago, StormyClearweather said:

Gross

Nice thing about the GFS is that you just have to wait a few hours to get an entirely different solution.  6z has us in the low 80s next Tuesday afternoon.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

As that Arctic low grazes Alaska, I think there is potential that the correlating +EPO ridge could overperform

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

I have seen ridges flex during -NAO's too many times recently. 

[Roger Smith]

As I posted in another thread, I believe you may get one day of scorching heat around Monday and it could go over 100F. That earlier GFS output showing later heat seems to be out of the picture now, this will be two days of heat Sunday-Monday and a sharp cold front on Tuesday morning. Will go out on a limb and predict 95, 102 for the two days as a regional average. 

[Roger Smith]

Still looking possible to reach 100F on Monday, 582 dm thickness reaches central VA, pattern looks generally dry and some downslope component is present with windshift line followed by apparent back door cold front Tuesday, leading to several days in 85-90 F range, low humidity, but the heat will not be pushed a long way south or west and could return later in the week. The next peak in thickness values (according to GFS guidance) is on Friday 25th (also just shy of 582 dm), air mass looks a bit more humid with that return to heat, may be more like 95-98 F.