Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 Models have a big -AO developing https://ibb.co/Cpynb4Y ^With +PNA some of the time, it may keep us cooler https://ibb.co/RpyjfYM Here's the correlation (+) https://ibb.co/hZN7RP6 May be cooler in the UM, I wouldn't forecast a heat wave until the pattern changes.. that takes us to mid/late August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 This will be gone by winter 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 -ao/+pna is what we want for winter, not summer 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 2, 2023 Author Share Posted August 2, 2023 This is a really strong pattern. https://ibb.co/k6CWVwz You're right, it usually happens in the Winter. August will probably have a negative departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 2, 2023 Author Share Posted August 2, 2023 Since the El Nino broke +0.5c, we have had more +PNA's than -PNA, which for now breaks the trend of -PNA that we saw in the +ENSO years of 18-19, and 19-20. February will be a big test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 Just let me know when we will finally get an area-wide rain threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 3, 2023 Author Share Posted August 3, 2023 Models shifted warmer today. I've actually never seen such a great 1-day change over the PNA region. https://ibb.co/9yw36D5 With a somewhat stronger SE flow in the medium-range, I would watch for a severe wx threat Aug 7-10, as the +PNA cold front moves through for mid-month. Models are showing this Aleutian low on the order of -300dm Days 8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 On 8/2/2023 at 12:17 PM, paulythegun said: Come November, it will flip and show a raging +NAO and SE ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 11, 2023 Author Share Posted August 11, 2023 See, we are seeing this happen again. -NAO's are associated with our warmest times. Inversely, +NAO's could be associated with our coldest times. If this continues into the Winter, I think it could be particularly snowy/wet, given the El Nino. https://ibb.co/fndjcLL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 13, 2023 Author Share Posted August 13, 2023 Pretty nice August warm up here.. https://ibb.co/VBYN03V I should have guessed when summer max's started passing, we would finally get warm. 594+dm Crazy how these things continue to happen with a -NAO/AO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Gross 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 ^yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 feels like the area is about to go dry again even those who have gotten wet...tough news for the many who have remained dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 11 hours ago, StormyClearweather said: Gross Nice thing about the GFS is that you just have to wait a few hours to get an entirely different solution. 6z has us in the low 80s next Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 15, 2023 Author Share Posted August 15, 2023 As that Arctic low grazes Alaska, I think there is potential that the correlating +EPO ridge could overperform http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html I have seen ridges flex during -NAO's too many times recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 As I posted in another thread, I believe you may get one day of scorching heat around Monday and it could go over 100F. That earlier GFS output showing later heat seems to be out of the picture now, this will be two days of heat Sunday-Monday and a sharp cold front on Tuesday morning. Will go out on a limb and predict 95, 102 for the two days as a regional average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Still looking possible to reach 100F on Monday, 582 dm thickness reaches central VA, pattern looks generally dry and some downslope component is present with windshift line followed by apparent back door cold front Tuesday, leading to several days in 85-90 F range, low humidity, but the heat will not be pushed a long way south or west and could return later in the week. The next peak in thickness values (according to GFS guidance) is on Friday 25th (also just shy of 582 dm), air mass looks a bit more humid with that return to heat, may be more like 95-98 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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