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August long range


Stormchaserchuck1
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Models shifted warmer today. I've actually never seen such a great 1-day change over the PNA region. 

https://ibb.co/9yw36D5

With a somewhat stronger SE flow in the medium-range, I would watch for a severe wx threat Aug 7-10, as the +PNA cold front moves through for mid-month. Models are showing this Aleutian low on the order of -300dm Days 8-10. 

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As I posted in another thread, I believe you may get one day of scorching heat around Monday and it could go over 100F. That earlier GFS output showing later heat seems to be out of the picture now, this will be two days of heat Sunday-Monday and a sharp cold front on Tuesday morning. Will go out on a limb and predict 95, 102 for the two days as a regional average. 

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Still looking possible to reach 100F on Monday, 582 dm thickness reaches central VA, pattern looks generally dry and some downslope component is present with windshift line followed by apparent back door cold front Tuesday, leading to several days in 85-90 F range, low humidity, but the heat will not be pushed a long way south or west and could return later in the week. The next peak in thickness values (according to GFS guidance) is on Friday 25th (also just shy of 582 dm), air mass looks a bit more humid with that return to heat, may be more like 95-98 F. 

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