August Discobs 2023

[87storms]

Kinda liking the airmass in place for at least the “potential” of overnight storms.

[Weather Will]

There is a severe thunderstorm watch for western counties until 2am.  I would note that the latest HRRR continues to underinitialize the line of storms.

Hope it holds together, need the rain..

[87storms]

There is a severe thunderstorm watch for western counties until 2am.  I would note that the latest HRRR continues to underinitialize the line of storms.
Hope it holds together, need the rain..

Looks like a 12-1am Frederick arrival, assuming it doesn’t start to go poof once it gets into the Hagerstown valley.

[pazzo83]

14 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Bias has been to lose the trough in the east all summer in the mid-long range, only to bring it back in the shorter range. So I’d lean euro with more seasonal temps based on that alone. But a few hot days are always in play.

we're probably just getting set up for the pattern to get stuck in a way that gives us our typical blowtorch "fall" well into November/December.

[pazzo83]

i think that's the thing that's really been noteworthy over the past, I dunno, several years.  We haven't had insane heat (generally) - it's just warm.  Basically wire-to-wire.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Continuous lightning and thunder as the line nears.  Let's see if it can hold together and actually rain.

[Jrlg1181]

39 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Continuous lightning and thunder as the line nears.  Let's see if it can hold together and actually rain.

Hope you got some water up that way, even though there is no chance down here , I can see the distant lightning on the northern horizon.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Nope.  Died on my door step.  It literally was like someone turned off the lightning with a switch.  It went from strobing to zero just as soon as the first drops began to fall.  Amazing.  Got some drizzle and light rain and that's it.

[WEATHER53]

The 12th was the first 90+ in August for DCA

Thats a wow 

[WxUSAF]

7 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

we're probably just getting set up for the pattern to get stuck in a way that gives us our typical blowtorch "fall" well into November/December.

Nino November’s are typically cool I think? But yeah, pack your bikinis for Christmas this year. 

[BlizzardNole]

7 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Nope.  Died on my door step.  It literally was like someone turned off the lightning with a switch.  It went from strobing to zero just as soon as the first drops began to fall.  Amazing.  Got some drizzle and light rain and that's it.

It's tough being in an orographic rain shadow!  You need a post-tropical system moving up from the gulf with NW-ward moving training bands.  Might be tough to get one of those with a building Nino in place.

[87storms]

Got a little rain last night, but was hoping for a t-storm. The ground got a free sprinkler, though.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

It's tough being in an orographic rain shadow!  You need a post-tropical system moving up from the gulf with NW-ward moving training bands.  Might be tough to get one of those with a building Nino in place.

Yeah, this continued pattern is a disaster for us. 

[pazzo83]

7 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Nino November’s are typically cool I think? But yeah, pack your bikinis for Christmas this year. 

oh right- wasn't it the last Niño where December was warmer than November (at least in NYC)?

[BlizzardNole]

6 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

oh right- wasn't it the last Niño where December was warmer than November (at least in NYC)?

I remember the strong Nino in fall 2015 -- we turned on the damn AC at Christmas because it was so warm and humid and were talking about how it won't snow a flake in the upcoming winter.  But then we got destroyed 

[87storms]

Yeah, this continued pattern is a disaster for us. 

It’s interesting, if anything. I think the lack of Atlantic return flow and/or a sustained Bermuda High isn’t helping. For areas like ours, we’re relying on a clipper-type of a pattern. I don’t think my location requires precip bands coming from the south or off the Atlantic, but any location on the downsloping side of things probably needs a system/setup to add extra lift to overcome those other variables. Looks like a sw flow develops tomorrow, so at least we’ll have that in our favor.

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

I remember the strong Nino in fall 2015 -- we turned on the damn AC at Christmas because it was so warm and humid and were talking about how it won't snow a flake in the upcoming winter.  But then we got destroyed 

Yeah I think it was 2015 - in NYC, it was the warmest Dec on record.  It was warmer than Nov that year and the avg temp in December would've been like a top 10 November.  Just insane.

[yoda]

Looks like upper 90s to 100 degrees returns next week per morning AFD from LWX 

For the end of the week into next weekend, the pattern turns hotter
and dry. A very strong 600 dm upper-level ridge takes shape over the
Midwest and Great Lakes regions during this time. It actually
appears as though the air mass will be much drier with this bout of
heat with the Bermuda High not in place this go around as a cold
front pushes through on Friday. Friday and Saturday will be closer
to climo, with upper 80s to low 90s expected. However, by Sunday
into early next week, expect temperatures to climb into the upper
90s.

[87storms]

Looks like upper 90s to 100 degrees returns next week per morning AFD from LWX 

For the end of the week into next weekend, the pattern turns hotterand dry. A very strong 600 dm upper-level ridge takes shape over theMidwest and Great Lakes regions during this time. It actuallyappears as though the air mass will be much drier with this bout ofheat with the Bermuda High not in place this go around as a coldfront pushes through on Friday. Friday and Saturday will be closerto climo, with upper 80s to low 90s expected. However, by Sundayinto early next week, expect temperatures to climb into the upper90s.

I’m all in…better chance for severe.

[87storms]

Getting a little bit of clearing skies up here.

I’ll take what the Nam 3k is showing for later. Unfortunately, it’s often times wrong on where the jackpot will be. Congrats to someone.

[hstorm]

6 hours ago, yoda said:

Looks like upper 90s to 100 degrees returns next week per morning AFD from LWX 

For the end of the week into next weekend, the pattern turns hotter
and dry. A very strong 600 dm upper-level ridge takes shape over the
Midwest and Great Lakes regions during this time. It actually
appears as though the air mass will be much drier with this bout of
heat with the Bermuda High not in place this go around as a cold
front pushes through on Friday. Friday and Saturday will be closer
to climo, with upper 80s to low 90s expected. However, by Sunday
into early next week, expect temperatures to climb into the upper
90s.

12z GFS took a big step backward on next week's heat (after Monday).  That will, of course, all change at 18z.  

[mdhokie]

12 minutes ago, hstorm said:

12z GFS took a big step backward on next week's heat (after Monday).  That will, of course, all change at 18z.  

This is extremely un-scientific but I feel like modelling this summer has been pretty poor, at least in short term resolutions. I was out in Missouri for a week at the beginning of the month. 5 days out the forecast was for multiple days of 100+ and sunny. Ended up raining at some point every day and highs in the mid 80s. There have been weeks here of the same precip/temp issues. Maybe we are on a boundary and its really hard to nail down? 

[Its a Breeze]

25 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

This is extremely un-scientific but I feel like modelling this summer has been pretty poor, at least in short term resolutions. I was out in Missouri for a week at the beginning of the month. 5 days out the forecast was for multiple days of 100+ and sunny. Ended up raining at some point every day and highs in the mid 80s. There have been weeks here of the same precip/temp issues. Maybe we are on a boundary and its really hard to nail down? 

Models are too hot in the summer, and too cold in the winter. So it perfectly balances out

 

[mattie g]

Really pouring here in Burke with a little wind and decent thunder.

[jewell2188]

Looks like after that last line of showers out west, that’s it. 

[mattie g]

10 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Really pouring here in Burke with a little wind and decent thunder.

Buckets. Absolute buckets.

[aldie 22]

Stuff blew up around me but we stayed clear here. Was hoping for a little bit but radar isn't inspiring at the moment. Be safe to the east

[Mrs.J]

Just had a nice 2 min downpour. The cell had looked more robust just before it got to my house. Would have liked some noise with it but will not complain with getting some rain. 

[Eskimo Joe]

9 hours ago, yoda said:

Looks like upper 90s to 100 degrees returns next week per morning AFD from LWX 

For the end of the week into next weekend, the pattern turns hotter
and dry. A very strong 600 dm upper-level ridge takes shape over the
Midwest and Great Lakes regions during this time. It actually
appears as though the air mass will be much drier with this bout of
heat with the Bermuda High not in place this go around as a cold
front pushes through on Friday. Friday and Saturday will be closer
to climo, with upper 80s to low 90s expected. However, by Sunday
into early next week, expect temperatures to climb into the upper
90s.

Watch us do upper 90s in early October again.

[87storms]

Watch us do upper 90s in early October again.

We have a Richmond/Raleigh climate now, so that wouldn’t surprise me.