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August Discobs 2023


George BM
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This morning's LWX forecast:  70% chance of showers through the day! 30% chance of thunderstorms by mid-afternoon!

And of course, it was dry LITERALLY the entire day here...we got a few threatening clouds passing through over the last hour with some mean-spirited sprinkles assailing us within the past 20 min. Good Lord, the drama.

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LWX AFD mentions warming trend into late August.  Battle of the GFS vs Euro.  00z GEFS has temps mid 90s (op has 100+ 8/19 through 8/22).  EPS has upper 80s-Low 90s (Op has mid to upper 80s through the 22nd). Be interesting to see which wins out.

As a golf course superintendent, these discussions are very helpful.  I've learned a lot from everyone here and have used this board as one of my tools for years when preparing and helping a plant get through a rough stretch of weather conditions.  I only just started posting now because as many have said in the past, "...it's better to listen than speak when you don't understand much..."  I still don't understand much, but meh, why not get minimally involved.

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1 hour ago, OKintendent said:

LWX AFD mentions warming trend into late August.  Battle of the GFS vs Euro.  00z GEFS has temps mid 90s (op has 100+ 8/19 through 8/22).  EPS has upper 80s-Low 90s (Op has mid to upper 80s through the 22nd). Be interesting to see which wins out.

As a golf course superintendent, these discussions are very helpful.  I've learned a lot from everyone here and have used this board as one of my tools for years when preparing and helping a plant get through a rough stretch of weather conditions.  I only just started posting now because as many have said in the past, "...it's better to listen than speak when you don't understand much..."  I still don't understand much, but meh, why not get minimally involved.

Bias has been to lose the trough in the east all summer in the mid-long range, only to bring it back in the shorter range. So I’d lean euro with more seasonal temps based on that alone. But a few hot days are always in play.

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Bias has been to lose the trough in the east all summer in the mid-long range, only to bring it back in the shorter range. So I’d lean euro with more seasonal temps based on that alone. But a few hot days are always in play.

Someone did mention that recently. I recall multiple times this summer 7-10 days out on GFS runs showing upper 90s-100, only to get within 3-5 days and it shows low to mid 90s which is what we ultimately got.

Up until the past 7 days, it has been incredibly dry in southern Frederick county.

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40 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Year to date precip totals for just my backyard.... 

Jan 1.53

Feb 3.09

Mar 1.39

April 3.63

May 1.48

June 5.10

July 2.73

Aug 0.50  

Ytd 19.45

August may turn out to be the worst month of the year..

Yes.  I'm on pace to even eclipse the futility of 1.4" July.  It just continues to get worse, day after day.

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On 8/11/2023 at 11:09 AM, 87storms said:

90 day departure in precip (you have to select it from the dropdown) is still pretty legit around here:

https://www2.atmos.umd.edu/~climate/ClimateInfo/prcp.php

The 270 split storm magnet has been in full force, but many areas are still several inches below normal.

This map is wayyy over done for my area.   Screenshot_20230812_120052_Chrome.thumb.jpg.7f6956b7dd81eb4fca6ad5051c56793f.jpg

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1 hour ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Year to date precip totals for just my backyard.... 

Jan 1.53

Feb 3.09

Mar 1.39

April 3.63

May 1.48

June 5.10

July 2.73

Aug 0.50  

Ytd 19.45

August may turn out to be the worst month of the year..

Jan 2.30

Feb 4.44

Mar 1.67

Apr 3.79

May 3.23

Jun 3.34

Jul 3.69

Aug 1.66

Total 24.12

And I thought my March was dry...

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4 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

This map is wayyy over done for my area.   

I think it just gives an idea of the precip struggles on the leeside of the mountains in this persistent GL low/NW flow type of a pattern.  Looks like there's some more TBD showers possible later.  Kinda makes sense given the airmass, but those Blue Ridge mountains are a force to be reckoned with.

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