adelphi_sky Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Be nice to get a shower or two out of this monsoon. No need for the flooding rains. Just a taste. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 4 hours ago, dailylurker said: What the heck is going on to our south. Huge wall of water down there. Is that coming north. Kinda looks like its trying. I took the kids down to Richmond today and it was a nonstop 2-hour wall of water driving back on 301. (Fortunately we did indoor stuff ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 On 8/27/2023 at 4:41 PM, stormy said: At 12z the 3k NAM nest predicted .18" rain thru Tuesday for my neck of the woods. Now at 18z it predicts 5.05" in the next 24 hrs. Without a doubt, a Flood Warning will be issued tomorrow afternoon..................... Heaviest rain 10 am - 4 pm. A few days ago I believed only the GFS and ECM were on steroids.............................. 24 hrs. later I have received 5 drops instead of 5 inches. This is not 15 day low resolution wish-casting from the GFS. This is 24 hr. high resolution from the NAM 3k. The GFS and ECMWF regularly average 8 - 15 degrees inflated with heat at 24 hrs... Now the NAM 3k misses by 5 inches with 24 hr. rainfall. I believe Gordon Barnes could have done better with his primitive tools in 1975!!! Do we continue to delude ourselves with 21st century high tech?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 33 minutes ago, stormy said: 24 hrs. later I have received 5 drops instead of 5 inches. This is not 15 day low resolution wish-casting from the GFS. This is 24 hr. high resolution from the NAM 3k. The GFS and ECMWF regularly average 8 - 15 degrees inflated with heat at 24 hrs... Now the NAM 3k misses by 5 inches with 24 hr. rainfall. I believe Gordon Barnes could have done better with his primitive tools in 1975!!! Do we continue to delude ourselves with 21st century high tech?? Heavy Rain in your P&C is the kiss of death. Welcome to the club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 46 minutes ago, stormy said: This is 24 hr. high resolution from the NAM 3k 46 minutes ago, stormy said: Now the NAM 3k misses by 5 inches with 24 hr. rainfall. 46 minutes ago, stormy said: 21st century high tech 3k NAM is no such thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 77 and mostly cloudy. With the trees done pretending that they need to stay green with the lack of rain and starting to change behind the house it feels like a proper early fall evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 56 minutes ago, stormy said: 24 hrs. later I have received 5 drops instead of 5 inches. This is not 15 day low resolution wish-casting from the GFS. This is 24 hr. high resolution from the NAM 3k. The GFS and ECMWF regularly average 8 - 15 degrees inflated with heat at 24 hrs... Now the NAM 3k misses by 5 inches with 24 hr. rainfall. I believe Gordon Barnes could have done better with his primitive tools in 1975!!! Do we continue to delude ourselves with 21st century high tech?? I saw your post then looked at the NAMs last night...I was thinking without a tropical or some cutoff low again my backyard may not see another 5 inches of total precip the rest of the year.. but I guess the model did get the totals right just 100 miles to our south and east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 45 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: 3k NAM is no such thing. Hello my friend down south! Please educate yourself a little from psu: https://learningweather.psu.edu/node/91 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 18z GFS says 8 consecutive 95F or higher days in September. Has that happened before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 hour ago, stormy said: Hello my friend down south! Please educate yourself a little from psu: https://learningweather.psu.edu/node/91 I admit, I didn’t look at the NAM too closely after your original post. I wasn’t sure if there was some bias/bug thing the 3k NAM does sometimes. If the numbers it was showing verified somewhere, then cool! I haven’t been looking at weather stuff much at all except for in class when we look at the models and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 W nor NW flow obviously will do it. SW cannot do it. S flow can't get it done anymore. And now E flow can barely generate a cloud, much less a drop of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: 18z GFS says 8 consecutive 95F or higher days in September. Has that happened before? Here? No clue, but I kind of hope that’s wrong. After watching the midwest and plains bake last week, I'm good without that kind of prolonged heat fall begins Friday, bring me 50s/60s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: 18z GFS says 8 consecutive 95F or higher days in September. Has that happened before? 1983 sure rings a bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just sprinkles. Hoped for some rain. Nice evening for a walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said: W nor NW flow obviously will do it. SW cannot do it. S flow can't get it done anymore. And now E flow can barely generate a cloud, much less a drop of rain. Like it’s always been said, once a pattern is established, it will rain where it has continued to rain and it will snow where it has continued to snow. If anyone else with more knowledge once to chime in, I’m pretty sure we need an overall major pattern shift. The overall rule of thumb is a rainy west coast=a relatively dry east coast and it seems like it’s been the way for the most part this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 4 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: W nor NW flow obviously will do it. SW cannot do it. S flow can't get it done anymore. And now E flow can barely generate a cloud, much less a drop of rain. Picked up another 0.01 this evening - raises my monthly total to 0.56 Meanwhile the last 36 hours has seen heavy heavy rain and numerous warnings to our east , south , west , and northwest.. Almost like the letter U... With most of the Valley from northern Waynesboro up to Winchester being a desert in the middle of a rainforest... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 On this date in 1982, record low of 38 at Dulles. Frost and even freezing conditions at many places in the eastern U.S. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/1982/08/30/a-cold-snap-replaces-usual-august-steambath/8ae62318-f533-4734-8ef0-2f9d4a99edc5/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Looks like it rained last night...not much but enough to notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Flood watch for the northern Shenandoah Desert including Winchester area -- we'll see! I've had no rain since August 8 and don't expect any this week or any time soon. The 90s and dry next week will finish a lot of stuff off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 45 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Flood watch for the northern Shenandoah Desert including Winchester area -- we'll see! I've had no rain since August 8 and don't expect any this week or any time soon. The 90s and dry next week will finish a lot of stuff off. From what? The chance of showers today and tonight? Models don't show much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 47 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Flood watch for the northern Shenandoah Desert including Winchester area -- we'll see! I've had no rain since August 8 and don't expect any this week or any time soon. The 90s and dry next week will finish a lot of stuff off. I've already got the sprinklers running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Radar looks great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 25 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I've already got the sprinklers running. I watered the flowers about an hour ago as well :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Worth noting that much of our area (Fairfax/Montgomery counties and eastward) is above normal for preciptation since Memorial Day. And much of that area is well above normal: https://www.weather.gov/marfc/SouthPrecipitation90Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 15 hours ago, Mrs.J said: 77 and mostly cloudy. With the trees done pretending that they need to stay green with the lack of rain and starting to change behind the house it feels like a proper early fall evening. We've had plenty of rain and are still losing some leaves. Just a normal process as the trees have been sucking up lots of water throughout the summer and shed some leaves to keep from becoming too dry. I'm sure places that have gotten less rain would lose more leaves, but it's not really a strange occurrence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 We have a drought thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 10 hours ago, Jrlg1181 said: Picked up another 0.01 this evening - raises my monthly total to 0.56 Meanwhile the last 36 hours has seen heavy heavy rain and numerous warnings to our east , south , west , and northwest.. Almost like the letter U... With most of the Valley from northern Waynesboro up to Winchester being a desert in the middle of a rainforest... I have received 1.12" 30% of normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 41 minutes ago, stormy said: I have received 1.12" 30% of normal 1.19 at my house. Checked multiple stations near me and they are below an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coolio Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Had to go to Burke on Sunday and I could tell they've gotten a lot of rain. Branches were so overgrown you couldn't see the road signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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