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August 2023 General Discussion


Chambana
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3 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I stepped outside for a minute. I can see a lot of distant lightning flashes that are in a hazy mass of cloud. I can also see a couple of stars.

observations show a severe wind gust from the -east- at Port Clinton Ohio. There is a storm developing rotation near there.

Why such a strange track and slow motion of these storms? Usually it's west to east at 60 mph. This is a strange night.

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3 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Why such a strange track and slow motion of these storms? Usually it's west to east at 60 mph. This is a strange night.

Blocking

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
While the synoptic setup remains fairly certain with a low northwest
of the Ohio Valley, mesoscale uncertainty from tonight extends into
tomorrow (Thursday). If the area remains dry overnight (no MCS
diving in from Michigan), Thursday likely features highs reaching
into the 90s along with dew points in the lower to middle 70s
everywhere. This combination of temperatures and dew points would
easily support the heat index reaching over 105 which reaches
Excessive Heat Warning Criteria. However, if the dry forecast
does not work out and a MCS dives south from Michigan overnight,
the rain-cooled air and cloud cover in the wake of the MCS
could limit daytime highs to near 90 in certain locations. Wet
scenario probabilities increase further east of I-75. The wet
scenario would still likely feature hot conditions by the
afternoon with the heat index reaching up to 100 which reaches
advisory level criteria. Either way, the main takeaway for
Thursday is hot and humid conditions are expected during the
afternoon. Whether the heat index reaches 100 (Heat Advisory) or
105 (Excessive Heat Warning), the risk for heat related illness
will likely be elevated. An Excessive Heat Watch remains in
place where the greatest uncertainty regarding convection is. An
Excessive Heat Warning in now in place where confidence is
highest regarding the heat index reaching 105 or above which is
along and west of I-75. The watch will be adjusted in the future
when the nature of possible convection is clearer.

Expect Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories to get cancelled tomorrow.

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8 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Holy hell near constant lightning since 2am.. and another round about to come in for my commute. Very prolific have not seen this in a long time. Was actually hard to sleep fully. Things back home by DTW seem rough with the flooding issues

Looks like you in Columbus got more than I did out it.  Ended up with 1.04" according to my rain gauge.  Heaviest rains were just to my south by just a few miles.  Hartland (I am just north of Hartland), Brighton to Milford area likely got 3-5".  Lightning was nonstop strobe light for good 3 hours.  Had about 4 good strikes around MBY with the initial couple cells that went though.  The CG shifted south with the heavier rains unfortunately.  It was nice to at least get something.

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15 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Looks like you in Columbus got more than I did out it.  Ended up with 1.04" according to my rain gauge.  Heaviest rains were just to my south by just a few miles.  Hartland (I am just north of Hartland), Brighton to Milford area likely got 3-5".  Lightning was nonstop strobe light for good 3 hours.  Had about 4 good strikes around MBY with the initial couple cells that went though.  The CG shifted south with the heavier rains unfortunately.  It was nice to at least get something.

That’s awesome to hear! This is a hell of a MCS especially with its southwest movement. Had my son and fiancé text me in the middle of the night and can’t sleep. I said same thing down in Ohio lol. Still going currently not looking forward to driving in tropical downpours 

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Are low temperatures becoming more uniform between urban areas and suburban/rural areas? I feel like in the past, it was common for their to be a 5-10+ degree difference in low temperatures during heat waves between the big urban airports and surrounding sites. And now it looks like most places are within a couple degrees of each other.

O'Hare and Midway were 81, while suburban Kenosha was 82 and Waukegan was 83. Rockford was 79. Janesville and Madison, in Wisconsin, both 81. Admittedly, the typical cool spots (Aurora) were still somewhat cooler at 76, but most places were right around 80. 

Has anyone else noticed this change, or am I misremembering?

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ORD is currently 88/78 as of 929am. For reference, it was 88/79 on the 10am ob yesterday. So it should be a degree or two warmer by the top of the hour today than it was yesterday. In our morning update, we bumped the forecast high at ORD to 100.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Are low temperatures becoming more uniform between urban areas and suburban/rural areas? I feel like in the past, it was common for their to be a 5-10+ degree difference in low temperatures during heat waves between the big urban airports and surrounding sites. And now it looks like most places are within a couple degrees of each other.

O'Hare and Midway were 81, while suburban Kenosha was 82 and Waukegan was 83. Rockford was 79. Janesville and Madison, in Wisconsin, both 81. Admittedly, the typical cool spots (Aurora) were still somewhat cooler at 76, but most places were right around 80. 

Has anyone else noticed this change, or am I misremembering?

Just by way of example, here is the July 1995 heat wave. There was a much more pronounced heat island effect at O'Hare, and especially Midway, relative to Rockford than in recent heat waves (including the current one).

RFD

image.png.5881f6abe4ef77cbc731a1410dad2f0b.png

ORD

image.png.1d0204131935095f65753a9e99cd9bca.png

MDW

image.png.2037c1fe332a7051ebe9eed662c4c7e9.png

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The Rockford airport/RFD obs site has seen significant development and paving over the past 10 years as it has grown to one of the largest cargo airports in the US and for a few recent years the fastest growing cargo airport in the world. It's also UPS's #2 hub and one of Amazon's larger air hubs. Several large maintenance/rebuild/overhaul operators have built large hangers and pads as well. 

Outside of the airport actually development in the RFD region has been minimal since the financial crisis. But of course the actual obs site itself is probably holding on to a fair bit more heat than in the past given many more paved acres in recent years. 

(I'm luckyweather, the board's rockford region regular. for some reason when I log in to the board in a browser it has my old screenname, vs same login on tapatalk on mobile, some tapatalk weirdness BS. whatevs.)

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ORD with a peak of 96° as of noon.

With clear skies, thermal ridge overhead, and compressional warming from the incoming front… 100°+ should be bank at this point.


.
Just hit 97 at the top of the hour, bouncing around a bit on the real time sensor data we can access at LOT. So after hitting 97 it's back down to 96 at the moment. This behavior has been typical the past 2 days.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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