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August 2023 General Discussion


Chambana
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98 today both here and at DVN.  MLI languished at a lowly 97 lol.  Dewpoint hit 83 here, and 82 at DVN.  Highest heat index hit 123 here, and at least 119 at both DVN and MLI.  About as bad as it gets to be sure for this area.

Tomorrow looks like a very good shot at 100 actual temp, but dews should be a tad bit lower.

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7 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Storms are forming west of this in the lake and in Ontario. The HRRR says heavy storms could slowly move over Toledo late at night.

That’s what I seen too. Can move into ILN territory as well. Radar has been interesting to go over. Slowly creeping west with storms now firing over Detroit area in a similar fashion as they did in the thumb region

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20 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

That’s what I seen too. Can move into ILN territory as well. Radar has been interesting to go over. Slowly creeping west with storms now firing over Detroit area in a similar fashion as they did in the thumb region

Been watching the clouds starting to form right overhead as they are feeding into that complex.  To my west was mostly clear and to my east mostly cloudy the past few hours.

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5 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Been watching the clouds starting to form right overhead as they are feeding into that complex.  To my west was mostly clear and to my east mostly cloudy the past few hours.

Very interesting flow. I got clouds racing in from the southwest here in Columbus. Just now cleared up and wind slowed down a tad. HRRR drunk I think

floop-hrrr-2023082400.refcmp.us_mw 2.gif

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2 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Very interesting flow. I got clouds racing in from the southwest here in Columbus. Just now cleared up and wind slowed down a tad. HRRR drunk I think

floop-hrrr-2023082400.refcmp.us_mw 2.gif

Keeps showing it triggering in Wisconsin.  This is where I am struggling to buy into it.  We'll see in the next few hours what actually triggers.

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13 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Keeps showing it triggering in Wisconsin.  This is where I am struggling to buy into it.  We'll see in the next few hours what actually triggers.

Its possible never know. Looks to be building towards your way a bit. Some flashes in Macomb county. One tiny flash southeast of flint apperently 

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Just now, SolidIcewx said:

Its possible never know. Looks to be building towards your way a bit. Some flashes in Macomb county. One tiny flash southeast of flint apperently 

The cell developed just to my east.  Saw one flash from it.   Hopefully it will continue to develop north and west.  :mellow:

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13 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Multiple flash flood warnings around Cleveland metro. 2-3 inches has fallen so far 

Very weird radar. What's this south-southwest movement crap? I can't remember seeing something like this, not even lake effect snow. When is it gonna push out? 

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4 minutes ago, Lightning said:

The cell developed just to my east.  Saw one flash from it.   Hopefully it will continue to develop north and west.  :mellow:

Crazy pre thunderstorm flashes. I remember a night similar to this a few years ago, had flashes before anything was even detected by the radar fully yet. Lots of energy tonight

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2 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Crazy pre thunderstorm flashes. I remember a night similar to this a few years ago, had flashes before anything was even detected by the radar fully yet. Lots of energy tonight

Near continuous flash coming from that cell now to my east.  Charlie Brown doesn't hold a candle stick to me with bad luck :unsure:

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Interesting KILN update

 

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A complicated and low-confidence forecast for tonight is slowly
starting to come into slightly better view. The ILN CWA is
currently on the southern periphery of a very potent 925mb
theta-e advection regime, with high theta-e values extending
from the middle Mississippi Valley region through Lake Erie on a
generally WSW-to-ENE trajectory. This is currently feeding the
severe storm near Cleveland, which has exhibited reflectivity
thresholds typical of a severe storm in a near-advisory-criteria
heat type of environment (50dBZ to 50kft, for example).

Over the next few hours, this feed of theta-e will gradually
shift southward, and it appears likely that the continued
propagation of this feature (and possible upscale growth into an
MCS) will eventually track the feature into central Ohio. At the
very least, it seems that convection will get into the
northeastern fringes of the ILN CWA (near and northeast of
Columbus). The challenging part of the forecast is looking at
the potential for further propagation to the south and west,
which has been suggested by several models, but very
inconsistently in terms of severity and westward extent.
Further eroding forecast confidence is the fact that recent HRRR
runs have not had a monopoly on either consistent signals for
how long the storms will propagate, or even where the current
storms are located. The 00Z run seems to have initialized
poorly, with real-life storms further west than the model has
depicted.

The broader model signals would suggest that the
storms will hold together as they continue to propagate, but
where and when that propagation occurs is something probably
better answered by mesoscale analysis. Right now, the location
of the instability gradient and the overall wind flow would
suggest the ILN CWA will not be unscathed by this activity.
Thus, there is medium confidence that central Ohio will be
impacted by these storms, and then low confidence in further
southward and westward propagation from there. Yes, it would be
unusual for storms to move from northeast to southwest, but the
vector of the flow of instability into the storms would suggest
it is possible.

Wherever these storms end up, there is plenty of heat and
humidity in the atmosphere to work with -- resulting in threats
of damaging wind, large hail, and heavy rainfall / flash
flooding. HWO has been updated to reflect higher confidence in
this scenario for a handful of central Ohio ILN counties. PoPs
have also been increased.
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These storms now (as mentioned) have brought about flash flooding for the Cleveland metro. It seems like they are trying to develop rotation but I don't think much will come of it. The newest HRRR runs now show little development for Detroit/Toledo. That's kind of a huge change.

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I stepped outside for a minute. I can see a lot of distant lightning flashes that are in a hazy mass of cloud. I can also see a couple of stars.

observations show a severe wind gust from the -east- at Port Clinton Ohio. There is a storm developing rotation near there.

 

rotation near Sandusky (there's a lot of lightning bolts shown on Radarscope)

 

 

supercell at sandusky.jpg

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