Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,600
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

August 2023 General Discussion


Chambana
 Share

Recommended Posts

25 minutes ago, roardog said:

It was La Niña for the last 3 years. I don’t recall much to look forward to then either except for maybe late Jan/Feb ‘21.

El Nino pretty much guarantees a boring winter though.  At least the early half, though who knows these days where tornado outbreaks sometimes happen mid-winter.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, frostfern said:

El Nino pretty much guarantees a boring winter though.  At least the early half, though who knows these days where tornado outbreaks sometimes happen mid-winter.

Usually but who knows. There’s been some decent El Niño Novembers though. It’s usually December that’s the worst but the last 3 Nina Decembers haven’t exactly been stellar either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, roardog said:

Usually but who knows. There’s been some decent El Niño Novembers though. It’s usually December that’s the worst but the last 3 Nina Decembers haven’t exactly been stellar either.

I think neutral ENSO is best for most of this sub actually.  Strong La Nina is really only good for MSP peeps.  These days it means a lot of rainers even into Wisconsin.  Some weak El Nino winters have been snowy as well, just back-ended.  Strong El Nino is usually bad for everyone but severe lovers in the deep south though.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

ENSO impact on severe is really hard to gauge. For example the Super Nino December of 2015 had two major tornado outbreaks in four days (12/23 MS/TN, 12/26 TX); but December 2021 (Nina, I'm sure) had two massive ones as well. December 1, 2018 (weak Nina IIRC) also featured an unusually far north and prolific outbreak in Illinois.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

ENSO impact on severe is really hard to gauge. For example the Super Nino December of 2015 had two major tornado outbreaks in four days (12/23 MS/TN, 12/26 TX); but December 2021 (Nina, I'm sure) had two massive ones as well. December 1, 2018 (weak Nina IIRC) also featured an unusually far north and prolific outbreak in Illinois.

Yea.  Individual major events are impossible to predict from teleconnections alone.  Especially severe weather events.  The El Nino phase does statistically favor Dixie Ally for severe though, and a strong one usually means a mild and dry winter for the upper Midwest.  2015 had GHDII though so its impossible to know for sure.  I didn’t even remember that was a Nino winter as I wasn’t living in Michigan that year.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Chinook said:

My place had a red sun before sunset tonight due to the forest fire smoke. It probably won't surprise any of you. There were no shadows before sunset.

The moon has been end times red the past couple nights!!! :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Been a "top climo" summer. Endless days in the low 80's and the occasional nice boomer. Remove the flash drought and smoke, and we would have a season that is tough to top. 

yup, couple more banger mcs this season and it's top tier

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...