Rtd208 Posted August 7, 2023 Author Share Posted August 7, 2023 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: Yup. @Rtd208 I mentioned that yesterday in my editied post to you. At the time you made your post it was to early to know for sure if clouds would kill off the chances for severe in the NYC metro, now we have a better idea but I still think at least isolated severe is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 7, 2023 Author Share Posted August 7, 2023 Surprisingly even with some cloud cover its pretty warm out there. Current temp 83/DP 74/RH 75% Picked up 0.82" of rain so far today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Suns keeps going in and out of the clouds. Up to 85 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Sounds like a tornado watch will be coming soon per the MCD just issued for most of you -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1885.html Mesoscale Discussion 1885 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023 Areas affected...portions of far southeast New York into eastern Pennsylvania...eastern Maryland...Delaware...New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 071831Z - 071930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the Mid Atlantic into the Hudson Valley. Several damaging gusts are likely and a couple of tornadoes and instances of large hail are also possible. A WW issuance will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Clearing skies across the Mid Atlantic into the Hudson Valley are promoting surface temperatures to exceed 80 F amid 70+ F dewpoints. With 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading the area, SBCAPE/MUCAPE is exceeding 2000 J/kg. As an upper trough and associated stronger west-southwesterly flow aloft continues to overspread the region, 40+ kts of effective bulk shear should result, with elongated hodographs bearing slight low-level curvature (evident via regional VADs and forecast soundings). A mix of supercells and multicells are expected, with some upscale growth into a QLCS likely later this afternoon. Several to potentially numerous damaging gusts are likely, with at least isolated bouts of severe hail possible with the more discrete, longer-lasting supercells. Tornadoes may accompany any of the stronger supercells or leading-line mesovortices. A WW issuance will be needed soon to address the increasing severe threat. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Sounds like a tornado watch will be coming soon per the MCD just issued for most of you -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1885.html Mesoscale Discussion 1885 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023 Areas affected...portions of far southeast New York into eastern Pennsylvania...eastern Maryland...Delaware...New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 071831Z - 071930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the Mid Atlantic into the Hudson Valley. Several damaging gusts are likely and a couple of tornadoes and instances of large hail are also possible. A WW issuance will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Clearing skies across the Mid Atlantic into the Hudson Valley are promoting surface temperatures to exceed 80 F amid 70+ F dewpoints. With 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading the area, SBCAPE/MUCAPE is exceeding 2000 J/kg. As an upper trough and associated stronger west-southwesterly flow aloft continues to overspread the region, 40+ kts of effective bulk shear should result, with elongated hodographs bearing slight low-level curvature (evident via regional VADs and forecast soundings). A mix of supercells and multicells are expected, with some upscale growth into a QLCS likely later this afternoon. Several to potentially numerous damaging gusts are likely, with at least isolated bouts of severe hail possible with the more discrete, longer-lasting supercells. Tornadoes may accompany any of the stronger supercells or leading-line mesovortices. A WW issuance will be needed soon to address the increasing severe threat. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 79/73 here with a low deck of stratus. This low deck has been quite tenacious in holding its ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: O Still not impressed for anything severe in NJ. Exception being southern 1/3 of the state....in line with the outlined area. The eastern sections of that watch box from SENY / NEPA down to near TTN do not look favorable for severe IMO. Even SNJ may escape with little or nothing with the loss of daytime heating. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Even JB had to knock this output on his own website: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 I’d say 111 degrees at EWR or LGA is within the realm of possibility but not Central Park. KNYC is a lost cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Partly sunny 83/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Today's severe weather threat is dynamically driven. Combination of deepening trough swinging through Ontario and intensifying jet streak coming up the Appalachians. Even with the cloud cover, we're sitting at around 2000 J/KG of SBCAPE and 30-40kts of effective shear. Should be plenty to sustain activity. The 19z HRRR takes the activity in SE PA and brings it through here around 01z. Take a look at the latest supercell composite. Not often you see this around here. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, Cfa said: I’d say 111 degrees at EWR or LGA is within the realm of possibility but not Central Park. KNYC is a lost cause. Really wish the nws put more prioritization on knyc. Such an important spot in the world and a fair amount of data output gets scrutinized. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Just now, Nibor said: Really wish the nws put more prioritization on knyc. Such an important spot in the world and a fair amount of data output gets scrutinized. An EF4 tornado could pass down 7th Ave during rush hour and New Yorkers would barely notice. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Nibor said: Really wish the nws put more prioritization on knyc. Such an important spot in the world and a fair amount of data output gets scrutinized. The historical record from that site has been so contaminated in several ways. It is a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: An EF4 tornado could pass down 7th Ave during rush hour and New Yorkers would barely notice. That’s what nerds are for. To notice the stuff most people don’t give a shit about. Pay some nerds to hangout in the park and be pedantic over every weather event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Nibor said: That’s what nerds are for. To notice the stuff most people don’t give a shit about. Pay some nerds to hangout in the park and be pedantic over every weather event. New York City is a pretty boring place to live if you're an extreme weather enthusiast outside of the occasional big blizzard and ultra rare tropical hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: New York City is a pretty boring place to live if you're an extreme weather enthusiast outside of the occasional big blizzard and ultra rare tropical hit. I think accurately accounting for the weather of a place where depending on the time of day 1.5 to 3 million people occupy is worth while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Might be from something else-havent you had a ton of rain going back a few weeks? No, we missed all of the heavy stuff east, west, north, south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: No, we missed all of the heavy stuff east, west, north, south. Wow-I had close to a foot in July and got another inch today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, Nibor said: I think accurately accounting for the weather of a place where depending on the time of day 1.5 to 3 million people occupy is worth while. I'm not saying that they shouldn't keep accurate records. Just that if you were "paying nerds to hang over in the park" everyday they would be reporting a whole lot of nothing. I guess that's true about most places though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Wow-I had close to a foot in July and got another inch today... Places just to my North up by Woodbury, Stony Point, West Point area are never going to be the same again. Bridges and roadways completely washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Not sure if this means a new watch is coming further East but it sounds like we will get a new watch somewhere soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Wow-I had close to a foot in July and got another inch today... We maybe had 1.5” in all of July 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not sure if this means a new watch is coming further East but it sounds like we will get a new watch somewhere soon. Lots of warnings in NY state where no watch is currently issued. I'm guessing that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 7, 2023 Author Share Posted August 7, 2023 It looks like some storms are trying to develop over NJ ahead of the main line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 7, 2023 Author Share Posted August 7, 2023 That is a beast of a line on the MD/PA border moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 @the_other_guy another aviation headache. I'm sure it'll take until Thursday to be back to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: That is a beast of a line on the MD/PA border moving east. Definitely a derecho in progress. Just insane radar as it went through northern MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Philly might get rocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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