August 2023

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Nothing wrong with using 30 year rolling averages, climate isn’t static

Then why do we use daily high and low temperatures from the 1800s?

[SACRUS]

 

8/26

PHL: 90
ACY: 88
EWR: 87
New Brnswck: 86
TEB: 86
JFK: 86
BLM: 85
LGA: 85
ISP: 85
TTN: 84
NYC: 84
 

[CIK62]

The last 5 days are averaging    75degs.(68/82) or +1.

Month to date is   75.2[-1.2].      August should end at   75.1[-1.0].

Reached 87{H.I. 96} here at 5pm.

Today:    80-84, wind n. to ne., m. sunny-clouds late, 70 tomorrow AM.

72*(80%RH) here at 7am.    74* at 9am.     Reached  82* at 3pm.

 

[the_other_guy]

10 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Then why do we use daily high and low temperatures from the 1800s?

We dont. Just records. As he said, climate isnt static. The 30 year rolling normal gives you a short-term perspective. The all time records that date back since the 1880s give you a a longer short-term perspective.

None of them even come close to giving us a medium term or long term perspective. 400 years from now, people will have much better historical data dating back much longer than our generation had. 

We finally have a BN summer month. 

30 years ago this would have been a summer with little AC use.

A noticeable change just in our lifetimes. But nonetheless, still over a short term reference

[SACRUS]

72 / 64 and partly / M sunny. Gorgeous day on tap.  Low / perhaps mid 80s.  Trough swings through Mon - Wed with clouds and showers  / clearing by Wed PM. Close the month near normal with tropical system into FL and SE coast which brunt looks to escape east.  

Ridging into the east to open Sep, onshore flow as ridge axis again south and west GFS / Euro swap - GFS warmer (hotter) Euro warm but onshore / humid.  We'll see if heat can make it into the area between 9/4 - 9/11.  Overall warmer than normal and tropics a glow.

 

  

[SACRUS]

20 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I disagree with you about widespread showers/storms to close the month wednesday and thursday. The models are showing the showers tuesday into tuesday night, and out of here by early wednesday morning. Looks like a very dry airmass coming in during the day wednesday, and very low humidity on thursday. Looks like a great close to the month to me. 

I do agree with you about a warmer pattern in the long range. Great timing for the holiday weekend. Looks like a spectacular holiday weekend with temps warming back up to the 80s. 

Looks to clear by Wed PM, perhaps similar to Saturday.

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 103 (1948) back to 100s for records highs
NYC: 101 (1948)
LGA: 99 (1948)


Lows:

EWR: 51 (1942)
NYC: 50 (1885)
LGA: 55 (1940)

 

Historical:

 

1881: A Category 2 Hurricane made landfall between St. Simons Island and Savannah, Georgia, on this day. Landfall coincided with high tide and proved very destructive. The hurricane killed 700 people, including 335 in Savannah, making it the sixth deadliest hurricane in the United States.

 

1893 - The first of three great hurricanes that year struck South Carolina drowning more than 1000 persons in a tidal surge at Charleston. (David Ludlum)

 

1893: An estimated Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Savannah, Georgia on this day. This hurricane produced a high storm surge of 16 to 30 feet which cost the lives of 1,000 to 2,000 people. As of now, this storm is one of the top 5, deadliest hurricanes on record for the USA.

1964 - Hurricane Cleo battered Miami and the South Florida area. It was the first direct hit for Miami in fourteen years. Winds gusted to 135 mph, and the hurricane caused 125 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1970 - Elko, NV, was deluged with 3.66 inches of rain in just one hour, establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Washington D.C. soared to a record hot 100 degrees, while clouds and rain to the north kept temperature readings in the 50s in central and southeastern New York State. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in the southwestern U.S. Thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico produced wind gusts to 75 mph near the White Sands Missile Range, and produced three inches of rain in two hours near the town of Belen. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in southeastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas and Missouri. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail south of Belleville KS, and tennis ball size hail south of Lincoln NE. Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph at Saint Joseph MO. Thunder- storms in North Dakota deluged the town of Linton with six inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2005: Hurricane Katrina reached Category 3 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico about 335 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.

[Rtd208]

We are probably going into a relatively quiet period of weather for the next 10-14 days. That can obviously change especially with anything in the tropics but otherwise it look like a quiet period coming up.

[Allsnow]

Will those tropical remnants make it up here? 

[Allsnow]

Models now have 1-3 inches of rain Tuesday into Wednesday 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Will those tropical remnants make it up here? 

Models show a sharp right turn off the NC coast

[forkyfork]

this is what a cold august looks like

[forkyfork]

13 lows below 60 that month. ewr has yet to have one so far

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

13 lows below 60 that month. ewr has yet to have one so far

That month today would be considered the start of a new ice age. 

Multiple highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s sounds crazy to think about 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Will those tropical remnants make it up here? 

 

Wouldnt surprise me to see a northward drift of the remnants but not sure it get much north of VA/MD as the trou lifts out and riding builds heights.  Will be interesting to watch Idalia was just named.

 

[SnoSki14]

I wouldn't be surprised to see another mega plains ridge while the coast gets backdoored. 

In fact that's how the GFS has been trending.

The drought in the plains and these stuck patterns make this the more probable route than a big eastern ridge. 

[SACRUS]

 

85 / 63 and a great day.  

[JustinRP37]

It is amazing lately how engrained out weather patterns become. They just get stuck. So if it is warm come December, bank on a warm winter. If it is cold and snowy, then we can be happy. 

[winterwx21]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Models now have 1-3 inches of rain Tuesday into Wednesday 

Yeah the models have increased the amounts. 12z Euro and CMC showing 1 to 2 inches for a lot of the area. Looking like a nice soaking tuesday night into wednesday morning. Then the humidity drops wednesday afternoon and we have a beautiful low humidity stretch for a few days. 

[psv88]

Another perfect day. What a summer

[Dark Star]

7 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

We dont. Just records. As he said, climate isnt static. The 30 year rolling normal gives you a short-term perspective. The all time records that date back since the 1880s give you a a longer short-term perspective.

None of them even come close to giving us a medium term or long term perspective. 400 years from now, people will have much better historical data dating back much longer than our generation had. 

We finally have a BN summer month. 

30 years ago this would have been a summer with little AC use.

A noticeable change just in our lifetimes. But nonetheless, still over a short term reference

Then why do we use record high and low temperatures all the way back to the 1800s?

[cleetussnow]

14 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Then why do we use record high and low temperatures all the way back to the 1800s?

I think 30 years is good for weather norms.  Thats a generation or so.  What people lived through and experienced in their memory vs. whats happening today.  So this summer isn’t really anomalous.  A tad cool, but not anomalous.  Going back 100 years isn't practical for the average joe planning a picnic or a farmer putting in alfalfa.  

For Climate norms, we need to go back 10,000 years. Or more.  JMHO.  Figure out what ended that last ice age and then why the Holocene has been relatively warm since the last ice age, and relatively stable compared to the Pleistocene ,  and why sea levels have risen for the last 4000 years.  Its not exactly geologic pace, but the climate over the last 14,000 years has been insane to the point where there actually are massive geologic features all over the place on account of an abrupt climate change that melted the ice sheet. Its been busy around here…relativity speaking.

[donsutherland1]

August will close out with cooler than normal readings. Tomorrow and Tuesday could see highs only in the 70s across much of the region.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Gulf Region roasted for another day under near all-time and all-time record heat. All-time record temperatures included:

Beaumont: 111°
Houston: 109° (tied all-time record)
New Iberia, LA: 109°
Lafayette, LA: 110°
Lake Charles: 109°
Lufkin, TX: 111°
New Orleans: 105°

In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September. Some short-lived warmth could arrive late in the first week of September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -10.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.769 today.

On August 25 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.182 (RMM). The August 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.354 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.6° (1.5° below normal).

 

[SACRUS]

 

8/27

 

PHL: 88
EWR: 87
ACY: 86
New Brnswck: 85
TEN: 84
NYC: 84
ISP: 84
TTN: 84
LGA: 83
BLM: 83
JFK: 83

[winterwarlock]

how many 90s does everyone have thus far. I have 20 but only one for August 

[kat5hurricane]

Another gorgeous weather weekend, lots of beach and pool time. We've been really spoiled this month, one of the best weather Augusts that I can remember.

[psv88]

85 today and perfect. Too bad we can’t have this all year

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of August are averaging   75degs.(70/81) or +1.

HW Alert?????    Sept. 3-10.  Avg.>  84(74/94) or +12!.

Month to date is  75.3[-1.1].     August should end at  75.1[-1.0].

Reached 82 here yesterday at 3pm.

Today: 75-79, wind e., m. cloudy, Rain by tomorrow AM, 69.

72*(88%RH) here at 7am.     74* at 9pm.      76* at Noon.      80* at 2pm.     Reached 81* at 2:30pm.      78* at 3:30pm.      73* at 8pm.

[SACRUS]

 

73 / 67 humid and overcast.  Trough moves through the next 48 hours with showers and rain.  Perhaps the heaviest rain staying south and east, we'll see as potential exists for >1 inch of rain.  Beyond there Thu (8/31) into the weekend.  Near normal with ride building into the Plains through   Sat (9/2)  again ridge axis has low wrap around keeping it warm and humid (onshore / southerly) with strongest heat west of the area once to labor day. 

Overall warm into the beyond elevated heights into the east and should see a push of the heat 9/4 - 9/11 for a day or so otherwise onshore / humid and the way beyond still looks warmer than normal.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]