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Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warm. A shower or thundershower is possible. Nevertheless, a prolonged stretch of generally cooler than normal readings is underway and will continue through at least the end of the month.

In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -9.77 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.355 today.

On August 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.673 (RMM). The August 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.906 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.5° (1.6° below normal).

 

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On 8/24/2023 at 8:15 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight and tomorrow. A prolonged stretch of generally cooler than normal readings will continue through at least the end of the month.

Meanwhile, Chicago reached a daily record-tying 100° today. Houston (109°) and Alexandria, LA (110°) tied their all-time records. In Europe, more than 75 cities in France set new all-time high temperature records.

In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -12.93 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.742 today.

On August 22 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.931 (RMM). The August 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.865 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.4° (1.7° below normal).

 

Looks like the Houston record may be short-lived.

 

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The last 6 days of August are averaging   76degs.(69/84) or +2.

Month to date is    75.1[-1.4].      August should end at   75.3[-0.8].

Reached 77 here yesterday at  1pm, 7pm.

Today:   81-85, wind n., early Rain, p. sunny by 1pm., 70 by tomorrow AM.

73*(98%RH) here at 7am-some rain.       80* at Noon.       82* at 3pm.     87* at 5pm{H.I. 96}

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