August 2023

[Stormlover74]

Upton discussion

Another shortwave traversing within the NW flow aloft between the heat ridge across the central states and troughing over the North Atlantic will approach. An MCS will likely develop with this shortwave as it moves out of the Great Lakes region tonight. There is still fairly high confidence that the majority of this complex will pass well to our west across PA following the greater instability and along and west of the warm front.

However, there will also be a 30-40 kt LLJ over the northeast and New England overnight into Friday morning. Showers will increase in coverage during this time associated with the LLJ and warm advection. While the majority of the convective complex moves to the west, a weaker, more stratified eastern edge may push through NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and portions of the NYC metro. The combination of these features support widespread showers late tonight into Friday morning. PWATs should reach 1.75-2 inches and there will be a deep warm cloud layer of around 13 kft, supporting locally heavy rainfall potential. Low level lapse rates may be fairly steep, but surface instability will be limited by a cap/inversion around 6-8 kft. There is enough elevated instability to support some embedded thunder

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

18z NAM a drencher tonight/tomorrow AM

[brooklynwx99]

18 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

for where he lives, that's still a soaker

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr quite wet west and south of the city

 

[donsutherland1]

Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight and tomorrow. A prolonged stretch of generally cooler than normal readings will continue through at least the end of the month.

Meanwhile, Chicago reached a daily record-tying 100° today. Houston (109°) and Alexandria, LA (110°) tied their all-time records. In Europe, more than 75 cities in France set new all-time high temperature records.

In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -12.93 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.742 today.

On August 22 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.931 (RMM). The August 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.865 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.4° (1.7° below normal).

 

[weathermedic]

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Upton discussion

Another shortwave traversing within the NW flow aloft between the heat ridge across the central states and troughing over the North Atlantic will approach. An MCS will likely develop with this shortwave as it moves out of the Great Lakes region tonight. There is still fairly high confidence that the majority of this complex will pass well to our west across PA following the greater instability and along and west of the warm front.

However, there will also be a 30-40 kt LLJ over the northeast and New England overnight into Friday morning. Showers will increase in coverage during this time associated with the LLJ and warm advection. While the majority of the convective complex moves to the west, a weaker, more stratified eastern edge may push through NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and portions of the NYC metro. The combination of these features support widespread showers late tonight into Friday morning. PWATs should reach 1.75-2 inches and there will be a deep warm cloud layer of around 13 kft, supporting locally heavy rainfall potential. Low level lapse rates may be fairly steep, but surface instability will be limited by a cap/inversion around 6-8 kft. There is enough elevated instability to support some embedded thunder

Line of strong to severe storms developing over the Great Lakes. Will see what holds together and how far it makes it.

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr has been shifting the heaviest north and east

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr has been shifting the heaviest north and east

Other models showing the heavier amounts to the north too. It's looking as if our area could be near the sharp cutoff. We could get just a quarter inch or 1 to 2 inches. 

[Stormlover74]

31 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Other models showing the heavier amounts to the north too. It's looking as if our area could be near the sharp cutoff. We could get just a quarter inch or 1 to 2 inches. 

Yeah rgem is like a quarter inch for us

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.14" of rain for the day.

Current temp 70/DP 69/RH 96%

[Stormlover74]

Quite a nice batch of heavy rain moving through 

[Maureen]

47 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Quite a nice batch of heavy rain moving through 

Yes, we’ve got about .73 so far, along with some lightning and distant rumblings. 

[Stormlover74]

Just hit 1" here for this batch plus what fell last evening. Should clear 1.25 before this wraps up in an hour or so 

[dmillz25]

Pouring here in the UWS

[doncat]

0.80" with t storm so far this am. 

[Allsnow]

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Just hit 1" here for this batch plus what fell last evening. Should clear 1.25 before this wraps up in an hour or so 

Same. It’s been a week since our last inch of rain 

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of August are averaging   74degs.(68/81) or Normal.

Month to date is  75.1[-1.4].     August should end at   75.0[-1.1].

Reached 73 here yesterday.

Today:  74-79, wind sw., m. cloudy, Rain till 2pm, 73 tomorrow AM.

71*(95%RH) here at 7am, raining.    70* at 8am.      74* at Noon.      77* at 7pm.

[Allsnow]

1.28 

[SACRUS]

 

70 / 69 and 0.54 in the bucket with a crack of thunder just before.  Clouds and showers linger in the muck of this boundary. The weekend is looking fantastic, hope there are no residual stuck clouds but even that shoudl burn off by tomorrow.  Sat warm low / mid 80s perhaps a few warm spots to 87/88.  Cooler, drier Sunday near / low 80s.   Trough swings through next week Mon (8/28) - mid week.  clouds and more showers.  Aug closes on a near normal note.   Euro has consistent storm, not much time to develop into FL WC/PH Wed/Thu and out near Jacksonville. 

 

Beyond there,  Sep starts with heights building into the east and we'll see how much warmer or maybe hotter it can get in the irst 10 days.  Will that ridge move east of the Mississippi.

 

 

[Brian5671]

Seems like the rain wraps up shortly based on radar...Upton has it going all day here...

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Same. It’s been a week since our last inch of rain 

imagine saying that last summer-I think we went 6-7 weeks here in between anything of consequence

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 97 (1993)
NYC: 95 (1948)
LGA: 96 (1948)


Lows:

EWR: 48 (1940) first 40s record since June
NYC: 52 (1940)
LGA: 53 (1940)

 

Historical:

 

1814: In the early afternoon, a strong tornado struck northwest Washington D.C. and downtown. The severe tornadic storm arrived the day after the British Troops had set fire to the Capitol, the White House, and other public buildings. The storm's rains would douse those flames. The tornado did major structural damage to the residential section of the city. The tornado's flying debris killed more British soldiers than by the guns of the American resistance.  The storm blew off roofs and carried them high up into the air, knocked down chimneys and fences and damaged numerous homes. Some homes were destroyed. It lifted two pieces of cannon and deposited them several yards away. At least 30 Americans were killed or injured in the heavily damaged buildings, and an unknown number of British killed and wounded.

1885 - A severe hurricane struck South Carolina causing 1.3 million dollars damage at Charleston. (David Ludlum)

1940 - New Jersey experienced its coldest August morning of record, with lows of 32 degrees at Layton and Charlotteburg. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Morning thunderstorms produced heavy rain in eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa. Stanton IA reported 10.50 inches of rain. Water was reported up to the handle of automobiles west of Greenwood NE. Rainfall totals for a two day period ranged from 7 to 14 inches across southwestern Iowa. Crop damage was in the millions for both states. Subsequent flooding of streams in Iowa the last week of August caused millions of dollars damage to crops, as some streams crested ten feet above flood stage. (Storm Data)

1988 - Seven cities in California reported record high temperatures for the date, including Sacramento with an afternoon reading of 104 degrees. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in Arizona. Chino Valley was drenched with 2.50 inches of rain in just thirty minutes washing out a couple of streets in town. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms drenched Spencer, IN, with 4.10 inches of rain in three hours causing extensive street flooding. Evening thunderstorms in eastern Kansas produced up to six inches of rain around Emporia, and four inches of rain in just forty-five minutes near Parsons, and also produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Lake Melvern. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Katrina becomes a hurricane just before landfall in south Florida between Hallandale Beach and North Miami Beach. Maximum sustained winds at the time of landfall were near 80 mph. There were eleven fatalities in South Florida, including four by falling trees. More than 1.3 million customers lost electrical services, and preliminary insured loss estimates ranged from $600 million to $2 billion in the state of Florida (Associated Press).

[winterwx21]

I got 1.16" from this morning's batch of rain. Very nice soaking. 

[Stormlover74]

1.29 - 1.16 this morning plus .13 last night

Most of the models have at least some activity through this evening though the hrrr is very isolated 

[doncat]

1.01" this am...5.56" for month. 

[weathermedic]

.79 inches for me today.

[MANDA]

1.36" rainfall here.

[rclab]

Good late morning everyone. As of 10:51 CPK reported .57 within the past 16 hours. Ref: Accu-Weather, I believe LaGuardia had a considerably higher total. Stay well, as always ….

 

[Brian5671]

Not much here-models too far north with the rains...about .20

humid as we get warm sectored...

[lee59]

Up to .59 here as rain moved back in.