August 2023

[donsutherland1]

Cooler air will return for tomorrow. Afterward, a prolonged stretch of cooler than normal readings will continue through at least the weekend.

Yesterday, Hilary brought an all-time daily record 2.20" rainfall to Death Valley. That tops the previous one- two- and three-day records. It also matches that location's average annual rainfall (1991-2020 baseline)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was unavailable today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.500 today.

On August 19 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.553 (RMM). The August 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.295 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.7° (1.4° below normal).

 

[Roger Smith]

Just for interest, here is the complete list of years (at NYC) that had their annual maximum later than today's date August 21st ... they are arranged by dates of occurrence and within same dates, from warmest to coolest values. Ties within this range of dates are shown in italics. Ties with earlier values are shown underlined. 

Notes include any record highs that were not annual maxima. Absence of such a note implies that the warmest annual max shown is also that day's record high. 

 

Date ___ YEAR(s) ___ Max _______ notes (including record highs not annual maxima)

Aug 21 __ 1869 ___ 95 _______________________ 96F 1955

Aug 22 __ 1916 ___ 95 ___________

Aug 23 __ (no years had max) _______________ 92F 1916

Aug 24 __ 1972 ___ 94 (tied July 19 & 23, 1972 94F)

Aug 25 __ (no years had max) _______________ 95F 1948

Aug 26 __ 1948 __ 103

Aug 27 __ 1960 _ 91 (tied July 12, 1960 91F) __ 101F 1948

Aug 28 __ 1973 ___ 98 __ tied 30th __________ 100F 1948

Aug 29 __ (no years had max) ________________ 99F 1953

Aug 30 __ 1973 ___ 98 __ tied 28th ___________ 98F also in 1953

Aug 31 __ (no years had max) ________________100F 1953

Sep 1 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1953

Sep 2 ____ 1953 __ 102 ____ 1932 _ 96 ___ 2014 _ 92

Sep 3 ____ 1929 ___ 99 ____ 1921 _ 96 _________

Sep 4 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1929

Sep 5 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1985

Sep 6 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1881

Sep 7 ____ 1881 ___101 

Sep 8 ____ 2015 ___ 97

Sep 9 ____ 1915 ___ 94 ____ 1884 _ 91 (tied June 21, Aug 20, Sep 10 1884 91F)

Sep 10 ___ 1897 ___ 93 (tied July 6, 1897 93F) ___ 1884 _ 91 (tied June 21, Aug 20, Sep 9 1884 91F)

________________________________________________ 97F 1931 and 1983

Sep 11 ___ 1983 ___ 99 __ 1931 ___ 99 __ (1931 tied Aug 7 99F)

Sep 12 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1961

Sep 13 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1952

Sep 14 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1931

Sep 15 ___ 1927 ___ 92 (tied four dates in July 1927 92F) ___ 

Sep 16 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1915

Sep 17 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1991

Sep 18 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 91F 1891

Sep 19 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1983

Sep 20 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1895, 1983

Sep 21 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 95F 1895

Sep 22 ___ 1914 ___ 95 (tied May 27, 1914 95F) ___ 1970 _ 94 ___ record 95F 1895, 1914

Sep 23 ___ 1895 ___ 97 ____________________ also 96F May 31, June 1, 2 1895

___________________________

Also 93F on Sep 1st to 3rd 1898 but annual max was 100F in July 3. 

Records after Sep 23 generally near 90F, sooner or later a year could set an annual max in October as 94F in 1941 is above annual maxima of several years.  

[SACRUS]

8/21

ACY: 92
EWR: 91
BLM: 91
PHL: 90
New Brnswck: 89
NYC: 88
JFK: 88
LGA: 87
ISP: 87
TEB: 87
TTN: 86

[doncat]

Looking back thru my records, only 1982 had no 90° readings in August.

[Allsnow]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

Philly is closer to 2014 so far than 2009. Plus 2009 wasn’t as cold in Philly as it was in our area. Newark had its 2nd coldest June and July average while Philly was only 13th coolest since 1931.

 

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 20	Missing Count
2023-08-20	75.8	0
2022-08-20	79.0	0
2021-08-20	77.4	0
2020-08-20	78.4	0
2019-08-20	78.0	0
2018-08-20	76.8	0
2017-08-20	76.9	0
2016-08-20	78.8	0
2015-08-20	77.7	0
2014-08-20	75.9	0
2013-08-20	76.7	0
2012-08-20	78.0	0
2011-08-20	78.6	0
2010-08-20	80.1	0
2009-08-20	74.8	0

My point still stands…coolest summer in phl since 2009. 

[Allsnow]

September in august this summer 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

Meanwhile 

 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   75degs.(67/82) or Normal.

Reached 90{H.I. of 95} here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:    77-81, wind ne., m. sunny?, 65 tomorrow AM.

71*(54%RH) here at 7am{was still 80* back at midnight}.     70* at 8am.     69* at 9am.      73* at Noon.     79* at 3pm.    Reached 84* at 6pm.

[lee59]

It was so warm late last evening but how refreshing this morning

[SnoSki14]

45 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Meanwhile 

 

 

Yikes! Hard pass

[nycwinter]

Oh, what a beautiful mornin'
Oh, what a beautiful day
I've got a beautiful feelin'
Everything's goin' my way

Oh, what a beautiful day

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yikes! Hard pass

We got lucky this summer 

[Nibor]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Meanwhile 

 

 

 

me just looking at that image

[winterwx21]

Dewpoint all the way down to 50. Enjoy this extremely low humidity today and tomorrow. More low humidity coming early next week as this comfortable August continues. 

[SACRUS]

 

72 / 52 and very nice out.   Low 80s next two days with loads of sun and a N/NE flow keeping the heat shielded 350 miles away.  Flow comes back around Thu (8/24) into the weekend with a bit more humid.  Clouds and showers  those days will keep temperatures down. Beyond that clearing out by the coming Mon (8/28) with temps near normal to cloud out the month.

Trough looks to split and caught in between with active tropics targeting the SE.  Elusive ridging trying to hint on latest guidance into early September.  

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 94 (1983)
NYC: 95 (1916)
LGA: 93 (2019)


Lows:

EWR: 51 (1982)
NYC: 52 (1895)
LGA: 55 (1982)

Historical:

 

1816 - The growing season for corn was cut short as damaging frosts were reported from North Carolina to interior New England. (David Ludlum)

 

1893: Four hurricanes are observed in the Atlantic Ocean at the same time. Over a century would pass, 1998 before four hurricanes would again rage together in the Atlantic.

1923 - The temperature at Anchorage, AK, reached 82 degrees, a record for August for the location which was later tied on the 2nd in 1978. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A cold front lowered temperatures 20 to 40 degrees across the north central U.S., and produced severe thunderstorms in Ohio and Lower Michigan. An early morning thunderstorm near Sydney MI produced high winds which spun a car around 180 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Afternoon highs of 88 degrees at Astoria, OR, and 104 degrees at Medford, OR, were records for the date, and the number of daily record highs across the nation since the first of June topped the 2000 mark. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Evening thunderstorms in the central U.S. produced golf ball size hail at May City IA, and wind gusts to 66 mph at Balltown IA. Lightning struck a barn in Fayette County IA killing 750 hogs. Evening thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Havre. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992 - Hurricane Andrew makes landfall in Southern Florida as a Category 5 storm with wind guests estimated in excess of 175 m.p.h. Estimated damages exceeded $20 billion, more than 60 people were killed and approximately 2 million people were evacuated from their homes. (University of Illinois WW2010)

 

1994: Hurricane John, about 345 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii had winds of 175 mph and pressure at 920 millibars or 27.17 inches of mercury, making it one of the strongest hurricanes ever in the Central Pacific. The 31-day existence made John the longest-lasting tropical cyclone recorded in both the Pacific Ocean and worldwide, surpassing both Hurricane Tina's previous record in the Pacific of 24 days in the 1992 season and the 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane's previous world record of 28 days in the 1899 Atlantic season. John was also the farthest-traveling tropical cyclone in both Pacific Ocean and worldwide, with distance traveled of 7,165 miles, out-distancing previous record holders Hurricane Fico in the Pacific of 4,700 miles in the 1978 season and Hurricane Faith worldwide of 6,850 miles in the 1966 Atlantic season.

[SACRUS]

00z Euro with a storm into FL Panhandle next THu and up the coast after that.  

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

did you  forecast a surge of heat last half of august a week ago?

Its a very toasty 73 degrees.  Yes most guidance at that point and seeing a 600 DM ridge in that spot 9/10 leads to a heat surge even into the NE.  But it became apparent the ridge would focus heat just south and west of the area despite one day by the middle of last week.    That ridge will move right back into the Rockies seasonal tendencies are strong this season.  Will they break into early Sep would be the next question or is the focus on tropics.

[Stormlover74]

The nams bring in rain early on thursday now and last most of the day particularly west of the city

Euro waits til Friday morning

Rgem much drier

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Its a very toasty 73 degrees.  Yes most guidance at that point and seeing a 600 DM ridge in that spot 9/10 leads to a heat surge even into the NE.  But it became apparent the ridge would focus heat just south and west of the area despite one day by the middle of last week.    That ridge will move right back into the Rockies seasonal tendencies are strong this season.  Will they break into early Sep would be the next question or is the focus on tropics.

The blocking verified stronger than the forecasts from last week. We need to see more of this type of model bias during the winter. 

168 hr forecast

verification

 

 

[MJO812]

Just now, bluewave said:

The blocking verified stronger than the forecasts from  last week. We need to see more of this type of model bias during the winter. 

168 hr forecast

verification

 

 

It was the complete opposite last winter.  The ridge was also modeled too weak a week in advance only to trend stronger.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The blocking verified stronger than the forecasts from last week. We need to see more of this type of model bias during the winter. 

168 hr forecast

verification

 

 

As you said a few months ago, blocking is really the only time now we get sustained normal to below temps. 
 

The last cold stretch without blocking was probably December 2017 with the poleward pna ridge 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It was the complete opposite last winter.  The ridge was also modeled too weak a week in advance only to trend stronger.

I am hoping we can have some blocking carryover into the winter like some of the other years with near record summer blocking. But it’s tough to know for sure until the winter actually starts.

 

[winterwx21]

23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The nams bring in rain early on thursday now and last most of the day particularly west of the city

Euro waits til Friday morning

Rgem much drier

12z RGEM has a rainy friday. 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z RGEM has a rainy friday. 

Yeah 12z came in wetter but still dry Thursday unlike the nams

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah 12z came in wetter but still dry Thursday unlike the nams

Euro dry for Thursday now 

[Morris]

Just amazing weather for the summer. 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, Morris said:

Just amazing weather for the summer. 

Yup. Doesn't get much better.  

[Brian5671]

Windows open no AC running it's great.

[forkyfork]

can't wait for winter