August 2023

[Stormlover74]

Euro brings back heavy rain tomorrow afternoon and evening. Models keep waffling

[doncat]

Last two mornings in the 50's here, much different from Aug 1st thru 3rd 2006 when my station reached 100° each day.

[SACRUS]

 

71/ 57 partly cloudy and very nice out.  Last of these below normal days.  Transition to a warmer / humid pattern by Fri (8/4) with storms chances Fri and Sat (8/5) with dewpoints comning back to 60s.  Warm Sun (8/6) but with isolated storms chances.  Mon (8/7) - Thu (8/10) warmer with next shot at 90s in the warmer spots, storms chances.

The western Atlantic ridge is building west by next weekend 11/12th and thr trough is backing into the GL.  Overall warm, humid into mid month with storms chances as boundary setting up south / west of the region but still more tropical (similar to early Jul).  Tropics time by mid month with burgeoning Western Atlantics ridge steering towards SE / GOM.

 

  

 

 

 

[psv88]

6 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I did a day at Montauk last week, ended up at Robert Moses today. Looking at Smith Point next week. Boy, you couldn't have ordered a nicer week to be out there. 

Smith Point is a beautiful beach 

[Brian5671]

47 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro brings back heavy rain tomorrow afternoon and evening. Models keep waffling

Convective in nature-global models won't do well with the placement...

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Convective in nature-global models won't do well with the placement...

Just looks like the typical summer frontal passage with some scattered evening convection on Friday. Nice weekend as the front keeps moving to the east. 
 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  78degs.(70/87) or +1.

Reached 80 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:   76-81, wind s., p. cloudy, 71 tomorrow AM.

69*(68%RH) here at 7am{was 68 earlier}.     72* at 10am.      73* at 1pm.      74* at 2pm.     Reached 75* at 3pm.       72* at 8pm.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Just looks like the typical summer frontal passage with some scattered evening convection on Friday. Nice weekend as the front keeps moving to the east. 
 

Yup. Short range models not very impressive with tomorrow. Euro has been giving everyone an inch of rain with these convection threats all summer long. 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

71/ 57 partly cloudy and very nice out.  Last of these below normal days.  Transition to a warmer / humid pattern by Fri (8/4) with storms chances Fri and Sat (8/5) with dewpoints comning back to 60s.  Warm Sun (8/6) but with isolated storms chances.  Mon (8/7) - Thu (8/10) warmer with next shot at 90s in the warmer spots, storms chances.

The western Atlantic ridge is building west by next weekend 11/12th and thr trough is backing into the GL.  Overall warm, humid into mid month with storms chances as boundary setting up south / west of the region but still more tropical (similar to early Jul).  Tropics time by mid month with burgeoning Western Atlantics ridge steering towards SE / GOM.

 

  

 

 

 

I don't agree with you about the weekend. No rain in the forecast at all and the models are not showing any activity. North wind on Saturday brings in drier air with dewpoints falling to the high 50s late in the day. Overall looks like a nice weekend with lower humidity. Not super low humidity like we've had the last several days, but dewpoints in the high 50s to low 60s is pretty nice for early August. 

[TWCCraig]

You can barely make out the surface over NJ and the Delmarva with upper level smoke that thick. On a clear day, you can easily see surface features such as the shore.

An example of a mostly clear day back in Sep 2019:

[winterwx21]

31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Short range models not very impressive with tomorrow. Euro has been giving everyone an inch of rain with these convection threats all summer long. 

Monday's storm threat looks a lot better than tomorrow's, but obviously too far out to get excited. Looks like a significant humidity spike on Monday with dewpoints going to the low 70s, so hopefully that will help to fuel the storms. 

Looks like another nice airmass coming in mid next week with lower humidity again. Overall a very nice first 10 days of August with not a lot of humidity. I'm guessing that will change in mid August. 

[SACRUS]

8/3

 

EWR: 81
PHL: 81
LGA: 80
New Brnswck: 80
NYC: 80
BLM: 79
TEB: 79
TTN: 79
ACY: 78
JFK: 78
ISP: 77

[SACRUS]

8/3 Records

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 101 (2006) heatwave continued
NYC: 97 (2005)
LGA: 100 (2006)

 

Lows:

 

EWR: 57 (1953)
NYC: 55 (1927)
LGA: 59 (1953)

 

Historical:

 

1885 - A tornado hit Philadelphia and Camden along its eight mile path. (David Ludlum)

1970 - Hurricane Celia struck the coast of Texas producing wind gusts to 161 mph at Corpus Christi, and estimated wind gusts of 180 mph at Arkansas Pass. The hurricane was the most destructive of record along the Texas coast causing 454 million dollars damage, and also claimed eleven lives. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A severe thunderstorm moved across Cheyenne, WY, during the mid afternoon. The thunderstorm produced hailstones up to two inches in diameter causing more than 37 million dollars damage. The eastern U.S. sweltered in the heat. A dozen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Paducah KY with a reading of 102 degrees. Beckley WV established an all- time record with an afternoon high of 93 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a slow moving cold front produced severe weather from the Central High Plains to the Upper Great Lakes Region. Thunderstorms around Fort Collins, CO, produced wind gusts to 74 mph along with marble size hail. Sixteen persons were injured in the storm, most of whom were accidently locked out of their office building, having evacuated it when the fire alarm went off, apparently triggered by lightning. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms representing what remained of Hurricane Chantal drenched Wichita, KS, with 2.20 inches of rain in four hours during the early morning. Thunderstorms developing in Minnesota produced wind gusts to 85 mph at Baudette during the afternoon, and softball size hail at Lake Kabetogama, during the evening. Jamestown, ND, reported a record hot afternoon high of 103 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   80degs.(72/88) or +3.

Reached 75 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today:    76-80, wind sw , m. cloudy, Rain late, 70 tomorrow AM.

70*(81%RH) here at 7am.     72* at 9am.     74* at Noon.       77* at 4pm.

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr has a line moving southeast between 9 and 11 tonight

 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr has a line moving southeast between 9 and 11 tonight

 

But then of course the erratic HRRR model wasn't as impressed on the 12z run. I see RGEM and both NAMs also give us nothing on the 12z runs. SPC did move us into marginal risk and I would say we have a slight chance of seeing something, but I'm not very optimistic. It looks like a very slim chance. 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

But then of course the erratic HRRR model wasn't as impressed on the 12z run. I see RGEM and both NAMs also give us nothing on the 12z runs. SPC did move us into marginal risk and I would say we have a slight chance of seeing something, but I'm not very optimistic. It looks like a very slim chance. 

Yeah I agree. Hrrr has been inconsistent and it doesn't feel like an active day but I suppose things could change by late this evening 

[SACRUS]

 

74 / 66 and mostly cloudy.  Humid with some scattered storms today make way for a very  nice weekend. By Mon (8/7) warm southerly flow will bring humidity and more widespread storms chances.   Overall warmer and turning more humid and hot towards the end of next week as the trough lifts out back into the GL with the expanding western Atlantic ridge.   Storms chances along the boundary - similar to early July but perhaps stronger ridge pushes the hevaiest west of the area.  

 

  

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 100 (1993) the summer heat continued to roll on on
NYC: 100 (1944)
LGA: 99 (1944)

Lows:

 

EWR: 58 (1945)
NYC: 55 (1874)
LGA:62 (1964)

Historical:

 

1882 - A vivid aurora was visible from Oregon to Maine, down the east coast as far as Mayport FL, and inland as far as Wellington KS. Observers at Louisville KY noted merry dancers across the sky, and observers at Saint Vincent, MN, noted it was probably the most brilliant ever seen at that location. (The Weather Channel)

1930 - The temperature at Moorefield, WV, soared to 112 degrees to establish a state record, having reached 110 degrees the previous day. Widespread drought after April of that year caused some towns to haul water for domestic use, and many manufacturing plants were barely operational. (The Weather Channel)

1961 - Spokane, WA, reached an all-time record high of 108 degrees. Kalispell, MT, set an all-time record with a reading of 105 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1980 - A record forty-two consecutive days of 100 degree heat finally came to an end at the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport. July 1980 proved to be the hottest month of record with a mean temperature of 92 degrees. There was just one day of rain in July, and there was no measurable rain in August. There were 18 more days of 100 degree heat in August, and four in September. Hot weather that summer contributed to the deaths of 1200 people nationally, and losses from the heat across the country were estimated at twenty billion dollars. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A cold front brought relief from the heat to a large part of the Midwest, while hot weather continued in the south central and eastern U.S. Morning thunderstorms in Nebraska deluged the town of Dalton with 8.71 inches of rain, along with hail three inches in diameter, which accumulated up to four feet deep near the town of Dix. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Iowa to Lower Michigan during the afternoon and evening hours, producing golf ball size hail and spawning several tornadoes. A thunderstorm at Maquoketa, IA, produced wind gusts to 75 mph. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas to the Great Lakes Region, with 150 reports of large hail or damaging winds during the afternoon, evening, and nighttime hours. Thunderstorms produced tennis ball size hail at Claremont, MN, and wind gusts to 75 mph at Milwaukee, WI. Thunderstorms representing what once was Hurricane Chantal produced five inches of rain at Grant, MI, and deluged Chicago, IL, with more than three inches of rain in three hours. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Some very nice storms over Pa and upstate currently. We are kind of in the squeeze play between that action and precip down south 

[bluewave]

Most stations are close to normal for warmer 91-20 average JJA summer departures so far. Plenty of blocking. Where was this pattern during recent winters?

 

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Refreshing onshore breeze at the moment. Should kill any storm chances 

[gravitylover]

76>65 spread today, 71 now. I'm not appreciating the smoke. It's dry, I could use some rain. 

[donsutherland1]

The weekend will feature fair and pleasantly warm readings. Highs will mainly reach the lower and middle 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible on Monday.

No significant hot weather appears likely through the first 10 days of August. In fact, the latest ECMWF weeklies show no notable heat through at least the first half of August.

The U.S. Southwest is again in the midst of unseasonable heat. Phoenix reached 115° today  Cities such as Del Rio, El Paso, Phoenix, and Tucson could approach or reach their August high temperature records before the heat fades.

Louisiana is also roasting. Baton Rouge reached 100° for the 7th consecutive day. That is tied for the second longest such streak. The record of 8 consecutive days from August 19-26, 1921 will likely be tied tomorrow and broken on Sunday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around July 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.05°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -9.23 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.611 today.

On August 2 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.951 (RMM). The August 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.872 (RMM).

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

8/4 

 

EWR: 79 (first below 80 high since June 23rd)
TEB: 79
LGA: 78
ISP: 78
New Brnswck: 77
PHL: 77
NYC: 77
JFK: 76
BLM: 76
TTN: 75
ACY: 72

[psv88]

No rain 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Amazing changes on some of the models tonight. Initially, GFS is notably cooler than previous runs through the first half of its run with a a bit of a trough in the east and the heat ridge out west. Later in the run around August 15th the WAR builds in the east. However, the CMC has reversed the whole picture with a trough in the west and a massive ridge in the east by 240 hours. Interesting to see where we're going with two ideas competing to see which is correct. No heat vs. heat for our region. 

WX/PT

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   79degs.(71/87) or +2.

Reached 77 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today:   80-85, wind n./ne., partial clearing, 71 tomorrow AM.

70*(96%RH) here at 7am.     74* at 9am.      78* at 11am.     80* at 2pm.     82* at 3pm.      Reached 84* at 4pm.       79* at 9pm.

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Amazing changes on some of the models tonight. Initially, GFS is notably cooler than previous runs through the first half of its run with a a bit of a trough in the east and the heat ridge out west. Later in the run around August 15th the WAR builds in the east. However, the CMC has reversed the whole picture with a trough in the west and a massive ridge in the east by 240 hours. Interesting to see where we're going with two ideas competing to see which is correct. No heat vs. heat for our region. 

WX/PT

I think we'll either roast or it'll get very dewey & possibly stormy after the 10th. 

WAR looks likely to build 

[SACRUS]

 

 

77 / 67 and partly cloudy.  Continue the Puppy days of summer the next two days with a gorgeous weekend enroute.  Warm southerly flow Mon (8/7) - Wed (8/9) humid, warm with storms. When and where the sun is out it'll heat up quickly - this is like early Jul, so some chances at 90 in the sunnier / clearer spots and humid.  Thu (8/10) - Sat (8/12) transition as trough lifts and the western Atlantic ridge builds west more storms chances by the end of the week and weekend 8/12.  

 

Beyond there The W. Atl Ridge builds back into the EC anchoring in a warm humid flow with some heat.  Will go more into the pure dog days then.  We'll have to see the progression and strength vs the late July projections.  But overall warm and humid and likely storms chances (more if the boundary is nearby and more scattered / isolated if stronger W.A.R).