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2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Nice plots and I totally agree.  Back in the "cooler" climate this would have been a noteworthy cool summer.

Has got to make you wonder when the pattern will break down and can't help but feel we have wasted and are wasting an eastern trough during the warmer months and if we flip back to ridging over the east for winter.  This pattern may have happened at the wrong time for winter weather lovers.  Unlikely this pattern persists for the next 6-7 months with any staying power.  On the other hand we are kind of in uncharted territory with climate extremes lately so who knows.

Yeah, it has been pretty unusual to get a trough this deep over the area with the Atlantic at these record SST levels. Winter troughs have been tough to come by since 15-16 with only shorter intervals until the WAR or SE Ridge returned. But even a mild winter with a ridge nearby can produce a decent snowstorm or two with some blocking and more favorable Pacific periods. 
 

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it has been pretty unusual to get a trough this deep over the area with the Atlantic at these record SST levels. Winter troughs have been tough to come by since 15-16 with only shorter intervals until the WAR or SE Ridge returned. But even a mild winter with a ridge nearby can produce a decent snowstorm or two with some blocking and more favorable Pacific periods. 
 

What causes that abnormally cool area off the coast of Massachussetts?

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Tomorrow will be unseasonably warm before cooler air returns. Parts of the region could see the temperature reach or exceed 90°.

Hilary continues to bring excessive rainfall to the California desert into Nevada. 8 WSW Borrego Spring in San Diego County has seen 6.02" of rain. Daily rainfall records include:

Burbank: 1.44"
Long Beach: 1.49"
Los Angeles: 1.25"
Los Angeles (downtown): 1.50"
Palm Springs: 2.64" ***new August daily record***
Palmdale: 2.66" ***new August daily record***
San Diego: 0.91"
 
Earlier today, Yuma, Arizona recorded 45 mph sustained winds with gusts to 69 mph. The wind gusted as high as 84 mph in California's mountains.

The adjacent heat dome produced impressive record heat. Houston topped out at 108° (2nd highest temperature on record) and College Station hit an all-time record-tying 112°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was unavailable today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.066 today.

On August 18 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.255 (RMM). The August 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.120 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.8° (1.3° below normal).

 

 

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The next 8 days are averaging    75degs.(67/83) or Normal.

Reached 89 here at 6:30pm.

Today:  87-91, wind w.,  p. sunny, 68 tomorrow AM.

72*(80%RH) here at 7am.     74* at 8am.      76* at 9am.      83* at Noon.      89* at 5pm.       Reached 90*(95 HI) at 6pm.        85* at 8pm.

 

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13 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Philly still hasn’t hit 90 for the month of August 

PHL reached 91 degrees on the 15th. Outside of the usual suspects that run out of tolerance warm many locations north & east of Philly haven't reached 90 so far this month.

I wouldn't discount FRI especially for Philly south & west, they are still in the game for 90 degrees.

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9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Only hit 90 here once the whole summer.  Had 3 day in April.   

This. I understand there is no scientific correlation, but it "seems" whenever we hit a string of 90's in April, the following summers are tolerable (1976, 2009).

I wouldn't call this a "cool" summer (speaking strictly imby), I would call it seasonably warm. Uncomfortable too with the high dews. Plus I've only been under one heat advisory so far (unlike our "hot" summers where we can go a week or more under excessive heat warnings).

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Top 10 summer for me. Some hot and humid days so it felt summery. A month of full humidity for the tropical feel. However not so many hot days that it was unbearable and many days where it was mid 80s and blue bird skies. Most weekends were largely rain free so outdoor activities were abundant. 
 

clearly summers back is broken so we now head into our best weather season. 

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76/ 65 mostly cloudy, some breaks in the clouds but clouds will limit highs to upper 80s to low 90s in the hot spots.  If there are enough breaks could push mid 90s.  Robusto ridge 605 DM in Kansas City wanes, flow backs NW/N/NE and cools down Tue (8/22) - Thu (8/24).  Brunt of heat stays south and west ut flow comes back around to SW Fri (8/25) - Sat (8/26) but trough pushes clouds and showers into the area.  

Sun (8/27) - Wed (8/30) trough into the region - near normal tems.  Trough looks to cut of or split with more humid/warm by the close of the month / to open the next month.  Tropics active SE / GOM foucs.  Prior Euro runs had 

 

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif 

 

 

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Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 97 (2005)
NYC: 96 (1955)
LGA: 97 (1955)

 

 

Lows:

EWR: 53 (1949)
NYC: 53 (1922)
LGA; 57 (1977)

 


Historical:

1856: The Charter Oak was an unusually large white oak tree growing from around the 12th or 13th century until it fell during a windstorm on this day in 1856. According to tradition, Connecticut's Royal Charter of 1662 was hidden within the hollow of the tree to thwart its confiscation by the English governor-general. The oak became a symbol of American independence and is commemorated on the Connecticut State Quarter. 

 

1883 - A tornado hit Rochester, MN, killing 31 persons and wrecking 1351 dwellings. (David Ludlum)

1888 - A tornado swarm occurred in Maryland and Delaware. Many waterspouts were seen over Chesapeake Bay. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1918 - A tornado struck Tyler, MN, killing 36 persons and destroying most of the business section of the town resulting in a million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1983 - The temperature at Fayetteville, NC, soared to 110 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Early morning thunderstorms produced severe weather in eastern Iowa and west central Illinois. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 82 mph at Moline IL, and tennis ball size hail at Independence IA. Rock Island IL was drenched with 3.70 inches of rain. Total damage for the seven county area of west central Illinois was estimated at twelve million dollars. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms spawned several tornadoes in Iowa, produced wind gusts to 63 mph in the Council Bluffs area, and drenched Sioux Center IA with up to 6.61 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from Kansas to Minnesota and North Dakota. Thunderstorms in Minnesota produced baseball size hail from Correll to north of Appleton. Thunderstorms in north central Kansas produced wind gusts higher than 100 mph at Wilson Dam. Thunderstorms around Lincoln NE produced baseball size hail and up to five inches of rain, and Boone NE was deluged with five inches of rain in an hour and a half. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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