August 2023

[forkyfork]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

https://x.com/nws_mountholly/status/1692626252492865705?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

 

[lee59]

62 here last night, felt good.

[SACRUS]

 

73 / 53  sunny low humidity and low 80s.  Warmer but still dry Sun (8/20) mid / upper 80s the warm spots to 90.  Mon (8/21) pending on when clouds arrive most spots to 90, with enough sun mid 990s in the warmer spots.  The 600 DM ridge axis over KS/MS and wanes as HIllary pumps the western side of the ridge.  Flow goes around N/NE by Tue afternoon (8/22).  Cooler Wed - Thu (8/24).  Fri (8/25) - Sat (8/26) flow comes back around to the SW warmer more humid, showers / storms and clouds could limit temps.  

Beyond there near normal through D10 with most heat staying south and westt fo the area.  The tropics come around swinging.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 96 (2002)
NYC: 94 (2002)
LGA: 94 (1966)


Lows:

 

EWR: 54 (1958)
NYC: 55 (1924)
LGA: 59 (1979)

 

Historical:

 

1788 - A small but powerful hurricane inflicted great havoc upon forests along a narrow track from New Jersey to Maine. A similar storm track today would cause extreme disaster in the now populated area. (David Ludlum)

 

1890: An estimated F3 tornado hit South Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. About 400 buildings were destroyed in the industrial and more impoverished residential section of town. The death toll was 16 and damage was estimated at $400,000. 

 

1896: The famous Cottage City (Oak Bluffs) waterspout occurred off Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. The vortex was 3,600 feet high, formed three times, and was well photographed.

1969 - 'Never say die' Camille let loose a cloudburst in Virginia resulting in flash floods and landslides which killed 151 persons and cause 140 million dollars damage. Massies Hill VA received 27 inches of rain. (David Ludlum)

1986 - The temperature at San Antonio, TX, soared to an all-time record high of 108 degrees. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - Thunderstorms moving out of southeastern Nebraska spread severe weather into eastern Kansas and western Missouri during the day. Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced hail three inches in diameter at Albion, and high winds which downed a large tent at Waterloo injuring a dozen persons. Thunderstorms in Kansas produced baseball size hail northwest of Topeka, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Fulton. Ten persons were injured in a thunderstorm at Princeton KS, and damage to crops in southern Franklin County KS was estimated at 3.5 million dollars. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Raleigh, NC, reported a record hot temperature reading of 103 degrees. Afternoon thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced wind gusts to 75 mph in southern Pittsburgh County. Thunderstorms in Indiana produced 4.50 inches of rain at Morgantown. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Early morning thunderstorms deluged southeastern Delaware with six to ten inches of rain in four to six hours, with local reports of 13 to 20 inches of rain. Twenty-six major roads were closed or damaged, and fourteen bridges were washed out. Flooding caused nearly four million dollars damage to local businesses. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

We are in fall mode and San Diego is under a Tropical Storm watch with a hurricane warning just off the coast. You can’t make this stuff up anymore. I’m up in Vermont this week and leaves are changing, especially around the Killington area. Might see some upper 40s this week. Although if you sneeze it rains up here this summer. Our hotel has many FEMA and emergency agencies still here from the massive floods. 

Several locations in the Northeast have had their wettest summer so far from June into Mid-August. 

 

[winterwx21]

80 with a dewpoint of 53 here. Spectacular. Pretty much as nice as it gets during the summer.

Another cool low humidity airmass like this coming in for tuesday and wednesday, and in the long range it appears another one will be coming in for the last several days of August. It looking likely that we're gonna end up with a cooler than normal August for a change. 

[psv88]

80 today, Glorious. 

[lee59]

79-62 today, not bad for mid August.

[forkyfork]

just have to get through a short warm winter and we'll be off to nina torchland

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

just have to get through a short warm winter and we'll be off to nina torchland

Hater

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

just have to get through a short warm winter and we'll be off to nina torchland

Time to move to death valley

[rclab]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

just have to get through a short warm winter and we'll be off to nina torchland

 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Hater

 

27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Time to move to death valley

There will always be a place to post from. Stay well, as always ….

 

[donsutherland1]

Warmer air will return to close the weekend. Monday will be unseasonably warm before cooler air returns. Parts of the region could see the temperature reach or exceed 90°.

Meanwhile Hilary remains on track to bring a historic rainfall to parts of the California desert into Nevada tonight through Monday. Highest rainfall amounts could reach 6"-10". It is possible that Death Valley's storm total rainfall could exceed its highest monthly total.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was unavailable today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.511 today.

On August 17 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.117 (RMM). The August 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.089 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.0° (1.1° below normal).

 

[JustinRP37]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Several locations in the Northeast have had their wettest summer so far from June into Mid-August. 

 

It is truly amazing. Our hotel had FEMA and other disaster response agencies staying in it for the Vermont recovery. They have said that the damage to much of Vermont is just horrendous. Now some of the officials may have to go right to the desert for more flooding recovery.  

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   75degs.(68/83) or Normal.

Reached 84 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:   85-89, wind w., m. sunny, 72 tomorrow AM.

68*(69%RH)  here at 7am.      75* at Noon.       85* at 4pm.      88* at 5pm.     Reached 89* at 6:30pm.        80* at 10pm.

 

[SACRUS]

 

8/19

 

EWR: 82
LGA: 81
ACY: 81
PHL: 81
JFK: 79
TEB: 79
New Brnswck: 79
BLM: 79
ISP: 78
NYC: 78
TTN: 78

[SACRUS]

 

63 / 59 orr a low of 57.  Very nice morning (windows open).   Warmer today as the robustico ridge builds into Kansas city and s craping of the heat moves into the region for 36 hours.  Quick warm up to mid / upper 80s and the warm spots touching 90.  Low 90s tomorrow , capped by nearby clouds.  Enough sun and perhaps a stray mid 90s.  Flow comes around as ridge pumps west, and cool N/NE low through Wed/Thu.  By Fri (8/25) the flow is coming back around but likely coincides with next shot at rain and upper trough. Rockies ridge keeps the SW how and dries out the flooded desets.

Period 8/27 - 8/30 looks somewhat near normal with trough into the NE likely backing west or cutting off towards months end so likely turn more humid to close the month after a few more dry days.. 

 

Way beyond We'll see if the warm Atlantic can push and break the seasonal tendency with EC trough.

 

  

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 97 (1983)
NYC: 97 (1955)
LGA: 98 (1955)


Lows:

EWR: 52 (1949)
NYC: 55 (1949)
LGA: 58 (1949)

 

Historical:

 

1886 - The town of Indianola, TX, was completely destroyed by a hurricane, and never rebuilt. (David Ludlum)

 

1886: The 1886 Indianola Hurricane destroyed the town of Indianola, Texas and as such had a significant impact on the history and economic development of Texas. The storm ended the rivalry between Galveston and Indianola as the chief port of Texas. With the abandonment of Indianola and the unwillingness of the former residents to rebuild close to shore, Galveston became the essential Texan port until the 1900 Galveston Hurricane led to the rise of Houston as a major port. It was the fifth hurricane of the 1886 Atlantic hurricane season and one of the most intense hurricanes ever to hit the United States.

1910 - The big blow up of forest fires finally came to an end in Idaho. A record dry August fueled 1736 fires which burned three million acres destroying six billion board feet of timber. The fires claimed the lives of 85 persons, 78 of which were fire fighters, and consumed the entire town of Wallace. The smoke spread a third of the way around the world producing some dark days in the U.S. and Canada. The forest fires prompted federal fire protection laws. (David Ludlum)

 

1928: A tornado estimated at F4 intensity initially touched down in Winnebago County, Iowa, moved to Freeborn County, Minnesota, and hit the south side of Austin, MN. Five of the six deaths were in Austin with 60 injuries.

1987 - Half a dozen cities in the Central Plains Region reported record high temperatures for the date, including Pueblo CO with a reading of 102 degrees, and Goodland KS with a high of 104 degrees. Hill City KS reached 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Sheridan, WY, reported a record hot temperature reading of 100 degrees. Evening thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail near Fortuna ND, and wind gusts to 70 mph near Webster SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Early morning thunderstorms produced heavy rain in southeast Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma, with up to six inches reported around Tulsa OK. Some roads in the Tulsa area were closed by water 10 to 12 feet deep. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Thunderstorms produced winds gusts to 75 mph in Major County OK, and hail two inches in diameter at Jennings KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[bluewave]

This looks like it’s going to be the strongest 500mb ridge on record for the Midwest. Most of the times this region has approached 600 dm in the past resulted in 95-100° temperatures in our area. Goes to show how strong the Greenland blocking is.

[MANDA]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This looks like it’s going to be the strongest 500mb ridge on record for the Midwest. Most of the times this region has approached 600 dm in the past resulted in 95-100° temperatures in our area. Goes to show how strong the Greenland blocking is.

We really got lucky!  Could haven beeen a nasty stretch were it not for that blocking.  Nations mid section will sizzle.  No clouds / rain there for most of the week.  Heat index readings will approach 115, locally higher in spots.  Pretty much as hot as it can get in mid to late August. 

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This looks like it’s going to be the strongest 500mb ridge on record for the Midwest. Most of the times this region has approached 600 dm in the past resulted in 95-100° temperatures in our area. Goes to show how strong the Greenland blocking is.

One of these summers that ridge will park right over us with 105+ temps and 120+ HIs for days. 

[MANDA]

On another topic.  Gotta love the naked cloud swirl otherwise known as TD 6.  So far this season we are going with quantity and not quality.

Coming into peak season so we'll see what happens.  Not expecting anything long lived or intense this coming week.

[Rtd208]

The GFS has become increasingly wetter for late week into next weekend. Have to see if that holds thru the week. 

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, MANDA said:

We really got lucky!  Could haven beeen a nasty stretch were it not for that blocking.  Nations mid section will sizzle.  No clouds / rain there for most of the week.  Heat index readings will approach 115, locally higher in spots.  Pretty much as hot as it can get in mid to late August. 

This was actually the 2nd strongest trough near the region during the summer behind 2009. But since we have warmed up so much since then, it wasn’t as cool as that year was. Still very impressive in the age of the persistent WAR and SE Ridge patterns. 

[MANDA]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was actually the 2nd strongest trough near the region during the summer behind 2009. But since we have warmed up so much since then, it wasn’t as cool as that year was. Still very impressive in the age of the persistent WAR and SE Ridge patterns. 

Nice plots and I totally agree.  Back in the "cooler" climate this would have been a noteworthy cool summer.

Has got to make you wonder when the pattern will break down and can't help but feel we have wasted and are wasting an eastern trough during the warmer months and if we flip back to ridging over the east for winter.  This pattern may have happened at the wrong time for winter weather lovers.  Unlikely this pattern persists for the next 6-7 months with any staying power.  On the other hand we are kind of in uncharted territory with climate extremes lately so who knows.

[lee59]

59 degrees here this morning. Looks like another week coming up, of very comfortable temperatures.

 

[SACRUS]

 

SW

[SnoSki14]

29 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

SW

Now that's something you don't see everyday 

[psv88]

57. Crisp

[uofmiami]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

57. Crisp

Same this morning at my stations.