donsutherland1 Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 Tomorrow morning could be the coolest morning so far this month as a reinforcing shot of cool air moves through the region. New York City will see readings in the lower 60s. The nearby suburbs could see the mercury dip into the 50s. Warmer air will return to close the weekend. Monday will be unseasonably warm before cooler air returns. Meanwhile Hilary remains on track to bring a historic rainfall to parts of the California desert into Nevada tomorrow night through Monday. Highest rainfall amounts could reach 6"-10". It is possible that Death Valley's storm total rainfall could exceed its highest monthly total. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was +3.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.091 today. On August 16 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.090 (RMM). The August 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.132 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.2° (0.9° below normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 78/52. It's spectacular outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, lee59 said: 24th warmest summer by year. It’s better to dense rank weather statistics since the actual ranking is based on temperature and not the year. This is how the NWS NY out in Upton ranks their top temperature and precipitation records. https://www.sqlservertutorial.net/sql-server-window-functions/sql-server-dense_rank-function/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 already feels chilly inside going to be a comfy blanket night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 78/52. It's spectacular outside someone put me in a coma until may 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 62 will be the low tonight Beautiful 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s better to dense rank weather statistics since the actual ranking is based on temperature and not the year. This is how the NWS NY out in Upton ranks their top temperature and precipitation records. https://www.sqlservertutorial.net/sql-server-window-functions/sql-server-dense_rank-function/ I know this discussion has been made before. I agree it's the 14th highest temperature. I also think when it comes to ranking it still is the 24th highest year. Not really that important, it was a better summer than many recently but just pretty much normal temperature wise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 5 hours ago, forkyfork said: not as devastated as you will be when january is +7. also how did we get a top ten warm july if heat has no staying power Just give me a 3' storm and the winter can torch as much as it wants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 1 hour ago, lee59 said: I know this discussion has been made before. I agree it's the 14th highest temperature. I also think when it comes to ranking it still is the 24th highest year. Not really that important, it was a better summer than many recently but just pretty much normal temperature wise. Close to normal for the much warmer 1991-2020 climate normals. But warmer than average for the previous 30 year normals. So NOAA and the NCDC are inadvertently doing their part to normalize the warmer climate like the public does. Very difficult to use 30 year normals in such a rapidly warming climate. They worked better when the climate was more stable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 5 hours ago, forkyfork said: not as devastated as you will be when january is +7. also how did we get a top ten warm july if heat has no staying power nights were very warm to hot daytime not so much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 Incredible outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 52 minutes ago, forkyfork said: someone put me in a coma until may On the way 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 this is why I couldn’t live in Florida. They don’t get nights like this until November. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 A bit a breeze with current temp around 78 degrees. 35% humidity, 50 degree dew point. It feels gorgeous outside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 97 (2002) NYC: 94 (2002) LGA: 95 (2002) Lows: EWR: 52 (1941) NYC: 55 (1915) LGA:59 (1941) Historical: 1925 - During the late morning hours a severe hailstorm struck southeastern Iowa completely destroying crops along a path six to ten miles wide and 75 miles long. The hail also injured and killed poultry and livestock, and caused a total of 2.5 million dollars damage. The hailstorm flattened fields of corn to such an extent that many had to leave their farms in search of other work. It was one of the worst hailstorms of record for the nation. (The Weather Channel) 1983 - Hurricane Alicia ravaged southeastern Texas. The hurricane caused more than three billion dollars property damage, making it one of the costliest hurricanes in the history of the U.S. Just thirteen persons were killed, but 1800 others were injured. The hurricane packed winds to 130 mph as it crossed Galveston Island, and spawned twenty-two tornadoes in less than 24 hours as it made landfall. (The Weather Channel) (Storm Data) 1987 - Thirteen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Orlando FL with a reading of 98 degrees, and Portland ME with a high of 94 degrees. Newark NJ reached 90 degrees for the thirty-sixth time of the year, their second highest total of record. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Twenty-two cities, from the Carolinas to the Upper Ohio Valley, reported record high temperatures for the date, pushing the total number of daily record highs since the first of June above the 1100 mark. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees at Greensboro NC and 105 degrees at Raleigh NC equalled all-time records. Evening thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Scobey. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms over the Middle Atlantic Coast Region and the Upper Ohio Valley produced torrential rains in eastern Virginia during the late morning and afternoon hours. Totals ranged up to twelve inches at Yorktown. Williamsburg VA was deluged with 10.78 inches of rain between 6 AM and 10 AM, with 6.72 inches reported in just two hours. Flash flooding caused nearly twelve million dollars damage in Accomack County VA. Early evening thunderstorms in the Central High Plains Region produced walnut size hail and wind gusts to 80 mph around Casper WY. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in the Yellowstone Park area, causing fifteen mudslides. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 8/18 EWR: 85 ACY: 84 PHL: 84 BLM: 83 LGA: 83 JFK: 83 ISP: 82 TEB: 81 New Brnswck: 81 TTN: 80 NYC: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 19, 2023 Author Share Posted August 19, 2023 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: someone put me in a coma until may 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: why stop at may? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 We are in fall mode and San Diego is under a Tropical Storm watch with a hurricane warning just off the coast. You can’t make this stuff up anymore. I’m up in Vermont this week and leaves are changing, especially around the Killington area. Might see some upper 40s this week. Although if you sneeze it rains up here this summer. Our hotel has many FEMA and emergency agencies still here from the massive floods. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: someone put me in a coma until may Done! As always ….. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 56 at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 60 this morning. Another incredible weekend on tap. What a summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 i left the window open last night i think i might be catching a cold.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 28 minutes ago, psv88 said: 60 this morning. Another incredible weekend on tap. What a summer Absolutely. We’ve had some spurts of heat and humidity, but nothing like we’ve had in summers past and certainly not like the poor people suffering under the broiler heat domes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 65 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 77degs.(69/87) or +1. Reached 85 here yesterday at 5pm. Today: 78-82, wind w., m. sunny, 68 tomorrow AM. 64*(65%RH) here at 7am. 66* at 9am. 70* at 11am. 71* at Noon. 78* at 3pm. Reached 85* at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 Very fortunate to not be living in the Midwest/plains today or over next few days. We only get a brief taste on Monday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 17 hours ago, forkyfork said: "in recent memory" is doing a lot of heavy lifting https://x.com/nws_mountholly/status/1692626252492865705?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 Overnight low here was 53. Walpack dipped to 49 per NJ WxNet. I don't know how anyone could complain about this weather. Some areas of the country have been going through hell this summer....literally. This weather is amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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