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7 hours ago, forkyfork said:

you guys said those 90s didn't count because of lower humidity 

I think Monday is the best possibility for a 90. Very slight chance Sunday. Beyond then, again if you believe the GFS there could be a chance Thursday or Friday but the GFS performance has been extremely poor particularly beyond 4 days so I'm not ready to take it very seriously. 

WX/PT

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7 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

That would be tremendously costly and wasteful. Planes usually carry significantly more fuel than needed incase something happens and they need to modify the flight plan. Planes that travel over large bodies of water like transatlantic flights carry even more extra fuel.

I do occasionally witness it.

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Tomorrow through Saturday will likely see readings that are somewhat cooler than normal. Some showers and thundershowers are likely tonight into tomorrow morning. Saturday morning could be the coolest morning so far this month as a reinforcing shot of cool air moves into the region. Warmer air will return to close the weekend.

Meanwhile Hilary will bring a historic rainfall to parts of the California desert into Nevada Saturday night through Monday. Highest rainfall amounts could reach 6"-10". It is possible that Death Valley's rainfall could exceed its highest monthly total.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -4.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.472 today.

On August 15 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.134 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.193 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (0.7° below normal).

 

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