LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 That complex off the south Jersey coast eould be an epic flooder if it were over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Again the GFS with a very abbreviated glancing blow of heat for Monday followed by potentially severe storms Monday evening as a cold front crosses and unseasonably cool weather later Tuesday through Saturday....if you believe the GFS. CMC is basically the same idea. This not a forecast but just what these particular model runs suggest. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 8/15 ACY: 92 PHL: 91 BLM: 90 New Brnswck: 86 TTN: 86 EWR: 84 JFK: 81 ISP: 80 NYC: 80 TEB: 79 LGA: 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 1.10” so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 .35 overnight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 .81” overnight. This trough just keeps on giving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Wait I picked up 1.07 overnight? Didn't even know it rained 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 10 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That complex off the south Jersey coast eould be an epic flooder if it were over land. I'm down in OC NJ on vacation-incredible lightning off the coast last night-was cool to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 77degs.(68/86) or +1. Reached 88 here yesterday at 5pm. Today: 76-80, wind e., m. cloudy till Noon, 73 tomorrow AM 72*(92%RH) here at 7am. 75* at 9am. 78* at Noon. 80* at 4pm. Reached 84* at 5pm. 76* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 At the border of Manchester and Toms River I’ve dodged so much of these central / south events. Any of the previous watches and elevated severe days recently we’ve basically had nothing but drizzles, haven’t seen much in the way of thunder this summer actually. Temp sitting at 73.9 for the month of August to this point, vs 77.2 for the month of July and 67.1 for June. Interesting summer so far! Really starting to feel that fall / winter hype, my time to shine! Nov through Feb are my favorite months of the year. Wife and I working out if we’re doing our hiking trip to Iceland this Nov again. The eruption of Fagradalsfjall is over now but would be fun to get out to the fresh lava flow field. Good things to look forward to. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 13 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: At the border of Manchester and Toms River I’ve dodged so much of these central / south events. Any of the previous watches and elevated severe days recently we’ve basically had nothing but drizzles, haven’t seen much in the way of thunder this summer actually. Temp sitting at 73.9 for the month of August to this point, vs 77.2 for the month of July and 67.1 for June. Interesting summer so far! Really starting to feel that fall / winter hype, my time to shine! Nov through Feb are my favorite months of the year. Wife and I working out if we’re doing our hiking trip to Iceland this Nov again. The eruption of Fagradalsfjall is over now but would be fun to get out to the fresh lava flow field. Good things to look forward to. Yeah, very close to normal temperatures this summer across the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 0.31" around 4am... wasn't even aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Another nice moderate rainfall, great for the garden. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 .85" last night. The downpour woke me up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 75 / 69 and cloudy. Should clear out by the noon time sunny and warm low-mid 80s. Back to more clouds tomorrow Thue (8/17)ahead of the advancing trough with showers / storms Fri (8/18) but does not look very widespread at this point. Beyond there Sat (8/19) - Wed (8/23) ridge builds over KS peaking at 594 - near 600 DM. NW flow turns warm- hot by Mon (8/21) - Tue (8/22) before more N/NE flow pushes back heat. The strongest heat looks to skim the area Mon - Tue with brunt of the 850MB >20c mostly south and west of the area. Later in the month war / humid overall with rising heights and tropics active. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 99 (1944) NYC: 96 (1944) LGA:96 (1997) Lows: EWR: 57 (1945) year to year records both ways NYC: 55 (1880) LGA: 58 (1979) Historical: 1777 - The Battle of Bennington, delayed a day by rain, was fought. The rain delayed British reinforcements, and allowed the Vermont Militia to arrive in time, enabling the Americans to win a victory by defeating two enemy forces, one at a time. (David Ludlum) 1909 - A dry spell began in San Bernardino County of southern California that lasted until the 6th of May in 1912, a stretch of 994 days! Another dry spell, lasting 767 days, then began in October of 1912. (The Weather Channel) 1916 - Altapass, NC, was deluged with 22.22 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather from Oklahoma to Wisconsin and Lower Michigan. Thunderstorms in central Illinois produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Springfield which toppled two large beer tents at the state fair injuring 58 persons. Thunderstorms also drenched Chicago IL with 2.90 inches of rain, making August 1987 their wettest month of record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a slow moving cold front produced severe weather from North Dakota to Lower Michigan during the day. Nine tornadoes were sighted in North Dakota, and thunderstorms also produced hail three inches in diameter at Lakota ND, and wind gusts to 83 mph at Marais MI. Thirty-seven cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Rockford IL with a reading of 104 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the Central High Plains Region produced golf ball size hail at La Junta CO, Intercanyon CO, and Custer SD. Afternoon thunderstorms over South Texas drenched Brownsville with 2.60 inches of rain. Fair skies allowed viewing of the late evening full lunar eclipse from the Great Lakes Region to the Northern and Central Plains Region, and across much of the western third of the country. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992: One of the most destructive United States hurricanes of record started modestly as a tropical wave that emerged from the west coast of Africa on August 14. The wave spawned a tropical depression on August 16, which became Tropical Storm Andrew the next day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 .75 here overnight and 1.41 between yesterday and today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 I feel like we have been hearing about the building WAR all summer long only for it to keep getting pushed back. We are already starting to see the same old hype for an epic winter to generate clicks. While I am excited for winter and it cannot be as bad as last one (I hope), I don’t anticipate this extremely wet pattern will continue. We will see. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 I'm in se Bergen County and apparently we got hit with a thunderstorm overnight. Mom's tree took a huge hit with large limb falling and we got under 1" of rain. Was shocked I slept through it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, steve392 said: I'm in se Bergen County and apparently we got hit with a thunderstorm overnight. Mom's tree took a huge hit with large limb falling and we got under 1" of rain. Was shocked I slept through it Good morning everyone. CPK received 1.33 between 02:52 and 05:51. I awoke briefly during the one hour that accrued .75 but the sound of the rain lulled me back to sleep. Stay well, as always. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Wait I picked up 1.07 overnight? Didn't even know it rained I slept through it too, lol. I guess there wasn't any thunder to wake us up. Glad we got a good soaking though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Just now, winterwx21 said: I slept through it too, lol. I guess there wasn't any thunder to wake us up. Glad we got a good soaking though. How much did you get? My total seems suspiciously high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: How much did you get? My total seems suspiciously high 0.53" here. A nice watering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 well i had my window open with a screen not thinking it would rain and it got wet on the window sill... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 51 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: How much did you get? My total seems suspiciously high Anyone have a radar loop? HRRR was consistent in showing our area getting good rain overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 45 minutes ago, nycwinter said: well i had my window open with a screen not thinking it would rain and it got wet on the window sill... Thoughts and prayers 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Question? Is it.....?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Picked up another .78” here over night. About 2.59” in total since the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Wednesday through Saturday will likely see readings that are somewhat cooler than normal. Saturday morning could be the coolest morning so far this month as a reinforcing shot of cool air moves into the region. Warmer air will return to close the weekend. Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. into the fourth week of August. Afterward, the intensity of the heat should fade even as the heat expands in geographic scope. The weekend could witness rain and noticeably cooler temperatures in Phoenix with the mercury staying below 100° in Phoenix on Sunday. In the Pacific Northwest, the current extreme heat event is concluding. Portland topped out at 103° (old record: 102°, 1977), its 4th consecutive 100° or above reading. No August had ever seen 4 or more consecutive 100° temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -9.65 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.414 today. On August 15 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.210 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.134 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.7° (0.4° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 17, 2023 Author Share Posted August 17, 2023 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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