August 2023

[winterwx21]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Euro op is the warmest out of all its ensemble members. This is another can kick with the heat that we have witnessed all summer 

I'm starting to wonder if we're gonna see any extreme heat this summer. It's getting late. 

And what a weekend we have coming up. A beautiful airmass comes in friday afternoon into saturday. Dewpoints could drop to the low 50s. Saturday looking like a top 10 day of the year with sunshine, low 80s and very low humidity. Even when it warms up on sunday, it's nothing impressive and humidity will only come up a little. Looks like the best weekend of the summer. 

[FPizz]

.51" last night.  Not bad.

[Brasiluvsnow]

3 hours ago, tristateweatherFB said:

Ummmm

My eyes got slightly watery and misty looking at this 

[Rtd208]

Current temp 85/DP 73/RH 68%

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

I'm starting to wonder if we're gonna see any extreme heat this summer. It's getting late. 

And what a weekend we have coming up. A beautiful airmass comes in friday afternoon into saturday. Dewpoints could drop to the low 50s. Saturday looking like a top 10 day of the year with sunshine, low 80s and very low humidity. Even when it warms up on sunday, it's nothing impressive and humidity will only come up a little. Looks like the best weekend of the summer. 

Euro through 96 hours is coming in cooler than last night's run and less aggressive with the hot air mass over the central U.S. We'll see how this run completes but I think we're moving towards a consensus that we'll be on the edge of the hot air mass for 24 hours Sun-Mon and then cooler.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

7 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Euro through 96 hours is coming in cooler than last night's run and less aggressive with the hot air mass over the central U.S. We'll see how this run completes but I think we're moving towards a consensus that we'll be on the edge of the hot air mass for 24 hours Sun-Mon and then cooler.

WX/PT

May have to eat my words as at 120 while not as warm here the heat dome is building into Canada on the Euro. It's going to have a hard time bypassing us completely if this run is correct.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

May have to eat my words as at 120 while not as warm here the heat dome is building into Canada on the Euro. It's going to have a hard time bypassing us completely if this run is correct.

WX/PT

And yes at 144 we are looking at an expanding heat dome of very hot air. I would be careful about the idea that this will in fact occur. I think right now the odds weigh more heavily in favor of a b-door front around the 22nd but this run at 144 hours makes it look like a longer heatwave.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

And at 168 hours your b-door front is almost here. But we are pretty solidly in this heat for a day and a half possibly 2 days.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

But what happens when the heat is expanding and the HP dropping behind the b-door front is weak and only a nose from a HP in central Canada. The HP becomes a LP and our heat is extended possibly throughout next week. We'll be questioning this solution today for a while before buying it.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Of course you finally get your backdoor at 216 hours. But the only support right now this solution has the GFS from 5 days ago. That's not a strong yes vote. And the idea of the LP kicking the first HP behind the first b-door front out to sea seems not right for no other reason than it hasn't happened all summer.

WX/PT

 

[Allsnow]

It’s be a rough summer for heat lovers….haha

low 80’s and upper 70’s this weekend 

[NJwx85]

Watch for Central and Southern areas.

[nycsnow]

HRR looks good for metro

[Stormlover74]

Just now, nycsnow said:

HRR looks good for metro

3k Nam has that central nj to LI jackpot

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

3k Nam has that central nj to LI jackpot

Nams crush us later 

[psv88]

45 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s be a rough summer for heat lovers….haha

low 80’s and upper 70’s this weekend 

I think everyone likes low 80s...nobody upset, so definitely not "rough" for anyone...

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I think everyone likes low 80s...nobody upset, so definitely not "rough" for anyone...

Some would prefer low 80s dewpoints

[lee59]

First half of August slightly below normal for most of the area and the coming week looks similar.

[NJwx85]

I think the bulk of the activity tonight stays South of I-78 with the exception of an isolated or stray storm.

[Allsnow]

South 

[Santa Claus]

nice outflow on radar

[Roger Smith]

I'm a little outside your region but I do have the heat going on, 106F at my local weather station (Warfield BC) -- I think you may get one day of this heat on Monday from model consensus, Tuesday sees it cut off quickly by a fast-moving cold front before noon. Could peak at 98-102 for you but just one day, we are in middle of five-day heat wave here. 

Not sweating much, dew point is 43F. Relative humidity is 12%. I suspect you will improve on those numbers and get a brief 100/78 combo on Monday. At the same time, I can see how it fails to reach your region (mid-Atlantic looks more certain) and I can also see how it lasts several days if Tuesday front is a glancing blow. 

Anyway, Don if you read this, BC August record of 41.7 was set in 2004 and looks likely to fall if not here then at Lytton BC which is at 41.5 this hour. (we are 41.2). This is not quite as bad as the heat dome but close. (later edit 4 p.m. Pacific daylight time, Lytton BC at 42.1 has broken that record, locally we stayed at 41 C). 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Nams crush us later 

Nope miss south. 

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

It’s be a rough summer for heat lovers….haha

low 80’s and upper 70’s this weekend 

Looks like a glancing heat blow at best. Models backing off as we get closer. Omega type block with big ridge in the Midwest/plains.

[psv88]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Some would prefer low 80s dewpoints

People who sit inside in AC all day maybe. This has been a terrific summer so far. 

[Santa Claus]

same parts of mercer and monmouth getting hit again

[qg_omega]

what a cool summer overall, trough after trough.  

[donsutherland1]

Slightly cooler air will move into the region tonight. Wednesday through Saturday will likely see readings that are somewhat cooler than normal. Saturday morning could be the coolest morning so far this month as a reinforcing shot of cool air moves into the region.

Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. into the fourth week of August. Afterward, the intensity of the heat should fade even as the heat expands in geographic scope. The weekend could witness rain and noticeably cooler temperatures in Phoenix with the mercury staying below 100° in Phoenix on Sunday.

In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme heat event continues. the heat will ease tomorrow. Records included:

Eugene: 105°
Olympia: 100°
Omak: 108° (new August record)
Portland: 103° (latest 3-day streak of 100° on record)
Salem: 102°

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was +0.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.568 today.

On August 14 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.135 (RMM). The August 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.112 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal).

 

[Allsnow]

Pouring here currently under a tiny cell 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Pouring here currently under a tiny cell 

.15 more then I got last night haha