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9 hours ago, MANDA said:

Stellar morning of weather for early August.  Temperature of 62, DP upper 50's and a bit of a gusty breeze with clear skies.  Considering how hot and nasty it could be at this time of year this is just great weather!

The last 2 weeks for the most part have been stellar. The weekends have been....chefs' kiss. One of the nicest 2 weeks of summer weather in a long time.

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Rain and thunderstorms will likely return to the region tomorrow. Parts of the region could see 1" or more rainfall.

Near-term heat is unlikely. The latest ECMWF weeklies continue to show no notable heat through at least the first half of August. However, the August 14-21 period looks to be warmer than normal. Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. for much or all of the next two weeks.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around August 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.07°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -27.74 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.868 today.

On August 7 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.218 (RMM). The August 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.536 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (0.7° below normal).

 

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4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Just looked at all the models after being out since mid afternoon, and wow what a difference from what the 12z models were showing. I see RGEM cut way back too.  Hopefully we can at least get a halfway decent soaking if we miss the big amounts, but even that is in question now. 

It's like we went from a 12 to 18" snowstorm to 3 to 6

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