August 2023

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 102 (1948)
NYC: 100 (1948)
LGA: 98 (1948)


Lows:

 

EWR:  51 (1941)
NYC: 50 (1885)
LGA: 54 (1986)


Historical:

 

1898 - Torrents of rain accompanied by a furious wind upset the rain gage at Fort Mohave AZ. However, water in a wash tub set out on the mesa, clear of everything, measured eight inches after the 45 minute storm. (The Weather Channel)

1911 - Saint George, GA, was deluged with 18.00 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1959 - Lieutenant Colonel William Rankin bailed out of his plane at a height of 46,000 feet into a violent thunderstorm, and lived to write about the 45 minute journey (which normally would have been a thirteen minute descent). He described it as one of the most bizarre and painful experiences imaginable. (The Weather Channel)

1971 - Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Doria caused devastating floods in central and northeast New Jersey resulting in 138 million dollars damage. In southeastern Pennsylvania, high winds downed trees and power lines, and in New York City, heavy rains flooded streets and subways. (David Ludlum)

1973: An F4 tornado touched down near Canaan, New York, and moved to western Massachusetts. Three people were killed in West Stockbridge, Massachusetts when a truck stop was destroyed, and another person died in a ruined house nearby.

1986 - The temperature at Apalachicola, FL, dipped to 62 degrees to shatter their previous August record by four degrees, having tied their August record high of 99 degrees on the 2nd of the month. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Severe thunderstorms broke the heat in the southeastern U.S. and the Gulf Coast Region, but not before seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date. The severe thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 80 mph downing large trees around Horse Shoe NC, and pelted southeastern Meridian MS with hail two inches in diameter. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Tropical Storm Chris spawned a tornado near Manning, SC, which killed one person, and spawned three tornadoes in North Carolina. Chris produced one to two foot tides, and three to six inch rains, over coastal South Carolina. Severe thunderstorms in New York State and Vermont, developing ahead of a cold front, spawned a tornado which killed one person at Hector NY, produced tennis ball size hail at Brandon VT, and produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Lyndonville VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Early morning thunderstorms in Nebraska produced 4.50 inches of rain around McCook, and 4.65 inches near Auburn and Brownville. Showers in Montana pushed the rainfall total for the month at Havre past the previous August record of 3.90 inches. (The National Weather Summary)

1990: Between 3:15 p.m. and 3:45 p.m. a devastating F5 tornado ripped a 16.4 mile-long path through portions of Kendall and Will counties in northern Illinois. A total of 29 people were killed, and 350 more were injured. An estimated $160 million in damages occurred. The tornado's path width ranged from 200 yards to half a mile. A total of 470 homes were destroyed, and another 1000 homes were damaged. Sixty-five thousand customers lost power.

 

2005: Hurricane Katrina attained Category 5 status on the morning of August 28 and reached its peak strength at 1800 UTC that day, with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph and a minimum central pressure of 902 mbars (26.6 inHg).

[bluewave]

Maybe we can find a way to sneak in a PRE with two hurricanes to our south on Wednesday and a strong jet entrance region over the Northeast. 
 

 

[winterwx21]

Looks as if dewpoints could get down to the high 40s thursday and friday. A fall preview before we go into the much warmer pattern over the weekend. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Surf at area beaches will be pretty large Wednesday and Thursday from Franklin. If you want to witness the power of the ocean and some washovers and beach erosion it’s worth heading to the beach those days! Franklin now forecast to 155mph while sitting due south of us. One of the strongest storms ever to pass between Bermuda and NC. 

[winterwx21]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe we can find a way to sneak in a PRE with two hurricanes to our south on Wednesday and a strong jet entrance region over the Northeast. 
 

 

12z run of RGEM not as impressed and gives most of the area a quarter to half inch, but 3km NAM gives a lot of the area heavy rain. Hopefully we can get a good soaking tuesday night into wednesday morning, since it's looking like our last chance of rain for a long time. 

[winterwarlock]

2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

12z run of RGEM not as impressed and gives most of the area a quarter to half inch, but 3km NAM gives a lot of the area heavy rain. Hopefully we can get a good soaking tuesday night into wednesday morning, since it's looking like our last chance of rain for a long time. 

I dont understand  the need for more heavy rain..nowhere close to drought period..rained 2 inches over thurs-sat and 3 inches the propr week

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Surf at area beaches will be pretty large Wednesday and Thursday from Franklin. If you want to witness the power of the ocean and some washovers and beach erosion it’s worth heading to the beach those days! Franklin now forecast to 155mph while sitting due south of us. One of the strongest storms ever to pass between Bermuda and NC. 

Wednesday sounds like a fun evening to have dinner at the restaurant at Jones Beach by the boardwalk. 

[winterwx21]

20 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

I understand  the need for more heavy rain..nowhere close to drought period..rained 2 inches over thurs-sat and 3 inches the propr week

Yeah I know we don't really need it right now since we've had a very wet last 2 months, but I'll take one more since it appears we're going into a long dry pattern after wednesday morning. 

[forkyfork]

this is pretty nuts for an ensemble mean

[forkyfork]

canadian ensemble trending in that direction 

[Stormlover74]

[BucksCO_PA]

27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

PHL recorded 3 consecutive record lows on 8/28-30, 49, 44 & 47 degrees. 44 degrees is the record monthly low for AUG.

Mount Pocono dropped to 31 degrees on 8/30 & Bradford checked in with a balmy 25 degrees on 8/29 - LOL, friggin 25 degrees in AUG

Conversely PHL has not recorded an AUG low in the 50's since 2013.

[Picard]

Given the bathtub water in the gulf, what's the chances Idalia blows into a Cat 4 or 5 whilst crossing the gulf?

 

[Stormlover74]

27 minutes ago, Picard said:

Given the bathtub water in the gulf, what's the chances Idalia blows into a Cat 4 or 5 whilst crossing the gulf?

 

It could but probably weaken to a 3 at landfall

[nycwinter]

42 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It could but probably weaken to a 3 at landfall

probably will continue to get stronger up to landfall..in those hot gulf temps.

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

Wild.  The main reason I hope to see that again is for Forky's complete meltdown.  

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

this is pretty nuts for an ensemble mean

 

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

canadian ensemble trending in that direction 

mid 80's wow how will i  ever be able to take the heat..

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Picard said:

Given the bathtub water in the gulf, what's the chances Idalia blows into a Cat 4 or 5 whilst crossing the gulf?

 

Not good with the sheer

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

this is pretty nuts for an ensemble mean

Ok so it'll be 90F in early September...big whoop

[uofmiami]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

canadian ensemble trending in that direction 

Heat going up and over us. You can’t catch a break with your heat desire.

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Heat going up and over us. You can’t catch a break with your heat desire.

brrr

[SnowDemon]

Lol, is forky really gassed about the potential of a few days of 90s? Sign of the times.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, SnowDemon said:

Lol, is forky really gassed about the potential of a few days of 90s? Sign of the times.

Remember how excited we were for an inch and a half in late February?

[SnoSki14]

If only the GFS has a clue because that would be an impressive September heat wave 

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

brrr

Snow in Idaho!  Brrrrr indeed!

[SACRUS]

 

8/28

 

PHL: 84
ACY: 80
EWR: 78
New Brnswck: 77
LGA: 77
TTN: 77
TEB: 76
NYC: 76
BLM: 74
JFK: 74
ISP: 73

[donsutherland1]

August will close out with cooler than normal readings. Tomorrow could see highs only in the 70s across much of the region. Showers and a period of rain are likely tomorrow night into Wednesday.

Out West, Phoenix recorded a 117° high temperature, which tied the August record. Brownsville reached 106°, which tied that city's all-time high.

Tomorrow into tomorrow night, Idalia will likely undergo rapid intensification. It could make Florida landfall as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.  

In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week of September. Some short-lived warmth could arrive late in the first week of September. More sustained unseasonable warmth could develop afterward.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around August 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -10.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.794 today.

On August 26 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.148 (RMM). The August 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.180 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.8° (1.3° below normal).

 

[TriPol]

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

August will close out with cooler than normal readings. Tomorrow could see highs only in the 70s across much of the region. Showers and a period of rain are likely tomorrow night into Wednesday.

Out West, Phoenix recorded a 117° high temperature, which tied the August record. Brownsville reached 106°, which tied that city's all-time high.

Tomorrow into tomorrow night, Idalia will likely undergo rapid intensification. It could make Florida landfall as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.  

In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week of September. Some short-lived warmth could arrive late in the first week of September. More sustained unseasonable warmth could develop afterward.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around August 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -10.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.794 today.

On August 26 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.148 (RMM). The August 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.180 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.8° (1.3° below normal).

 

When was the last time we had a colder than normal august?

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, TriPol said:

When was the last time we had a colder than normal august?

 

2019, 2017 most recent

EWR:

2019 : -0.2 

2017 / -2.4

 

Thru 8/28 

EWR: +0.2