SACRUS Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 More clearing and breaks in the clouds to sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 2 hours ago, uofmiami said: When this is inside 120hrs let me know. Seen too much long range heat fade away this summer. Can still see highest temps will be to our west as has been the theme all summer. his last gasp for summer.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 33 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I could be wrong because I didn't look at the hrrr last night but I don't think any model had that much rain It had basically nothing. Even this morning the hrrr was a total fail while this was ongoing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 15 minutes ago, Rjay said: It had basically nothing. Even this morning the hrrr was a total fail while this was ongoing. It's crazy how erratic that model is. Sometimes it's spectacular and sometimes it's beyond horrendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Picked up another 1.05” this morning, 1.57” overall since yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Met summer is going to turn out to be, what, like -.5 or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: I could be wrong because I didn't look at the hrrr last night but I don't think any model had that much rain This is the 0z HRRR from last night. It had the complex but was low with amounts. Considering most of the events this summer I don’t think it did all that bad this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: 79 / 73 quite humid and becoming partly cloudy. Mid / upper 80s today. Much drier Sun (8/27) low 80s much less humidity but a gorgeous day. Mon (8/28) trough swings through some clouds and scattered showers near normal, more widespread showers / storms by Wed / Thu to close the month. Euro and GFS with low into FL Wed/Thu then out but trough/weakness hangs into the EC to open the month. Beyond there ridging into the EC with above normal and potential heat, we'll see if tropics or onshore flow disrupt the heat. But overall wam look nationwide. I disagree with you about widespread showers/storms to close the month wednesday and thursday. The models are showing the showers tuesday into tuesday night, and out of here by early wednesday morning. Looks like a very dry airmass coming in during the day wednesday, and very low humidity on thursday. Looks like a great close to the month to me. I do agree with you about a warmer pattern in the long range. Great timing for the holiday weekend. Looks like a spectacular holiday weekend with temps warming back up to the 80s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 9 minutes ago, Tatamy said: This is the 0z HRRR from last night. It had the complex but was low with amounts. Considering most of the events this summer I don’t think it did all that bad this time. Yeah that run looks decent but for some reason as it got closer it lost it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 2 hours ago, nycwinter said: his last gasp for summer.. I see a lot of onshore flow potential mucking up heat prospects. I think Forky will end up being disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I see a lot of onshore flow potential mucking up heat prospects. I think Forky will end up being disappointed 80s with high dewpoints and lows in the 70s. brrrr 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 1 hour ago, cleetussnow said: Met summer is going to turn out to be, what, like -.5 or something? against inflated 1991-2020 normals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 The average for the contiguous U.S. for 1981-2010 is 52.8 and 1991-2020 is 53.3. So if we are a 1/2 degree below normal this season it would probably be about average for the 1981-2010 period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah that run looks decent but for some reason as it got closer it lost it It was completely gone even really close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Labor day weekend heatwave on the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Labor day weekend heatwave on the euro and according to accuweather 45 day forecast by oct 06 highs temps only around 60 for nyc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 The GFS has a 102 for us at the same time it is 75 at JFK. Which way is the wind blowing anyway? Where would you rather be? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 32 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The GFS has a 102 for us at the same time it is 75 at JFK. Which way is the wind blowing anyway? Where would you rather be? Umm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 37 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The GFS has a 102 for us at the same time it is 75 at JFK. Which way is the wind blowing anyway? Where would you rather be? Wut 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Umm Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: against inflated 1991-2020 normals Nothing wrong with using 30 year rolling averages, climate isn’t static 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: against inflated 1991-2020 normals So yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 6.45" rain for the month, after 6.60" in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 26, 2023 Author Share Posted August 26, 2023 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: The GFS has a 102 for us at the same time it is 75 at JFK. Which way is the wind blowing anyway? Where would you rather be? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 85 today. Incredible out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Great night to sit outside and be mosquito food 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Temperatures rose into the middle and even upper 80s across the rgion on what will likely be the warmest day for the remainder of August. Philadelphia topped out at 90°. Meanwhile, along the Gulf Coast, a historic heat dome delivered numerous all-time record highs including: Gulfport, MS: 107° (new all-time record) Mobile: 106° (new all-time record) New Orleans: 102° (tied all-time record) Pascagoula, MS: 106° (new all-time record) Pensacola topped out at 105°, which fell 1° short of its all-time record. Baton Rouge, Houston, New Orleans, and Tampa, among other cities, remain on track for their hottest month on record. A prolonged stretch of generally cooler than normal readings is underway and will continue through at least the end of the month. In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -9.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.167 today. On August 24 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.401 (RMM). The August 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.668 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.5° (1.6° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 I honestly wish we could have a deep early freeze to kill the damn mosquitoes and yellow jackets for the year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 seeing a couple of cicada on my window screens i keep poking them away form the inside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Not sure the last time this happened but so far at nyc and ewr every day has been between -5 and +5 relative to average. And looks like the rest of the month will fall into that range as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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