August 2023

[nycwinter]

last 2 nights were not as cool as was predicted for the city..

[SACRUS]

 

8/22 highs

PHL: 82
ACY: 81
EWR: 80
LGA: 80
New Brnswck: 80
BLM: 79
JFK: 79
NYC: 79
TEB: 78
ISP: 78
TTN: 78

[SACRUS]

On 8/22/2023 at 10:56 AM, bluewave said:

The blocking verified stronger than the forecasts from last week. We need to see more of this type of model bias during the winter. 

168 hr forecast

verification

 

 

Further enhance by Hillary notice the west trough and upper low pumping the west side of the ridge sharper.  Seasonal trend has that ridge bounding between TX/OK/ Rockies and Kansas 

[JerseyWx]

6 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Always the chance for a rogue hot September day....

I mean we've had warmth right into October.  September we've had legit heatwaves...2015 wasn't long ago.

[gravitylover]

That's a pretty cool storm going on in WNY and points west and north.

Absolutely beautiful here now, ~75° with a light breeze and 50% humidity with deep blue skies. 

[winterwx21]

81 degrees with a dewpoint of 47 here. Doesn't get any better than this. 

[SACRUS]

Up to 81 but more clouds coming in

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 93 (1989)
NYC: 92 (1916)
LGA: 92 (1996) - rare heat


Lows:

EWR: 55 (1982)
NYC: 51 (1923)
LGA: 56 (1952)

Historical:

 

1724: An event is known as the "Great Gust of 1724" occurred on this day. Almost all tobacco and much of the corn crops were destroyed by this violent tropical storm, which struck the Chesapeake Bay. Intense floods of rain and a huge gust of wind were seen on the James River. Some homes were wrecked, and several vessels were driven ashore. The storm was likely followed by a second hurricane just five days later causing rain for many straight days that caused the Virginia floods of 1724.

1906 - Thunderstorms deluged Kansas City, MO, with six inches of rain during the early morning, including nearly three inches in thirty minutes. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac)

1921 - Denver, CO, was drenched with 2.20 inches of rain in one hour, a record for that location. (The Weather Channel)

 

1933: A hurricane made landfall near Nags Head, North Carolina and tracked up the Chesapeake Bay. The Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane moved over Norfolk, Virginia, and Washington, DC. A seven-foot tide flooded businesses in Norfolk, Virginia. Described in the American Meteorological Society's August 1933 weather review as "one of the most severe storms that have ever visited the Middle Atlantic Coast." 

1933 - The Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane moved over Norfolk VA and Washington D.C. A tide seven feet above normal flooded businesses in Norfolk, and damage in Maryland was estimated at seventeen million dollars. (David Ludlum)

1970 - Dry thunderstorms ignited more than one hundred fires in the Wenatchee and Okanogan National Forests of Washington State. Hot, dry, and windy weather spread the fires, a few of which burned out of control through the end of the month. More than 100,000 acres burned. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A cold front brought autumn-like weather to the Northern and Central Plains Region. Afternoon highs were in the 50s and 60s across parts of Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska that just two days earlier were in the 90s or above 100 degrees. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain in New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced hail an inch in diameter, wind gusts to 64 mph, and 2.62 inches of rain at Tucson AZ resulting in three million dollars damage. Cool weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S. Hartford CT reported a record low of 42 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced heavy rain with flash flooding in West Virginia. Pickens, WV, reported 4.80 inches of rain in 24 hours. Evening thunderstorms in Mississippi deluged Alta Woods with 4.25 inches of rain in less than an hour. Thunderstorms also produced heavy rain in southeastern Kentucky, and flooding was reported along Big Creek and along Stinking Creek. The Stinking Creek volunteer fire department reported water levels 12 to 14 feet above bankfull. Fort Worth TX hit the 100 degree mark for the first time all year. Strong winds ushering cool air into northwest Utah gusted to 70 mph, raising clouds of dust in the salt flats. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1992: While South Florida residents were preparing for Hurricane Andrew, folks in western Montana were dealing with early season snowfall. Some snowfall amounts include 8.3” in Great Falls, 6.2” in Helena, and 5.1” in Cut Bank. This snowfall is the first significant snowfall on record in western Montana in August.

 

 

2005: Hurricane Katrina formed from Tropical Depression Twelve over the southeastern Bahamas. Katrina would become the costliest ($81.2 billion) and one of the most deadly hurricanes (1,836 lives) in U.S. history.

 

[Dan76]

LOL the blue stuff 

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Always the chance for a rogue hot September day....

Sure but it's hard to knock persistence. 

Meanwhile it's in the 100s out in the plains with 120+ HIs...Jesus 

[donsutherland1]

A prolonged stretch of cooler than normal readings will continue through at least the weekend. Showers and thundershowers are likely later tomorrow and tomorrow night.

In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -17.48 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.573 today.

On August 21 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.871 (RMM). The August 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.751 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.6° (1.5° below normal).

 

[SACRUS]

 

8/23

 

EWR: 82
New Brnswck: 81
ACY: 81
PHL: 81
NYC: 80
LGA: 79
TEB: 79
TTN: 79
BLM: 77
JFK: 77
ISP: 76

[SACRUS]

 

12z Euro with storm back into the Fl Panhandle 8/30-8/31

[SACRUS]

Dep thru 8/23

EWR: +0.1
PHL: -0.6
LGA: -1.3
NYC: -1.3
JFK: -1.4
PHL: -1.6

[TriPol]

9 hours ago, Dan76 said:

LOL the blue stuff 

The 384 hour GFS has upgraded from shrooms to crack!

[Snowlover11]

man its dark as hell outside, if you told me we would be slammed by storms i’d believe you.  definitely has that look.

[MJO812]

Very dreary day today 

[Brasiluvsnow]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very dreary day today 

Don't worry Ant, It will be snowing soon 

[CIK62]

The last 8 days of August are averaging   73degs.(66/80) or -1.

Month to date is   75.4[-1.2].      August should end at   75.0[-1.1]

Reached 78 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:   71-75, wind e. to s., m. cloudy, Rain after 6pm, 70 by tomorrow AM.

71*(75%RH) here at 7am.      73* at Noon.      down to 70* at 1pm.     69* at 2pm.       68* at 3pm.

[SACRUS]

 

71 / 60 and cloudy with showers.  Kind of stuck in the muck the next two or so days showers clouds.  Weekend looks ok but would watch for any changes.   Trough into the NE to close the month near normal and additional rain chances Tue (8/29) and Wed (8/30).  Euro with storm into the FL pan handle again on the 00Z / GFS no storm. 

 

Sep will see if ridging can build into the EC.  Sep 1 - 10 near / above normal.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 95 (1947)
NYC: 94 (1972)
LGA: 93 (2020)


Lows:

EWR: 52 (1940)
NYC: 52 (1890)
LGA: 55 (1971)

 

Historical:

 

1906 - A cloudburst deluged Guinea, VA, with more than nine inches of rain in just forty minutes. (David Ludlum)

1968 - Lightning struck the Crawford County fairgrounds in northwest Pennsylvania killing two persons and injuring 72 others. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Autumn-like weather prevailed across the north central and northeastern U.S. Seven cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Saint Cloud MN with a low of 37 degrees. Temperatures in Florida soared to 98 degrees at Pensacola and 99 degrees at Jacksonville. Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Southern High Plains Region, with 5.40 inches at Union NM, and 7.25 inches reported west of Anthony NM. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms in the Delaware Valley of eastern Pennsylvania produced wind gusts to 95 mph around Philadelphia, and gusts to 100 mph at Warminster. A tropical depression drenched the Cabo Rojo area of southwestern Puerto Rico with up to ten inches of rain. San Juan received 5.35 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in eastern Montana and western sections of the Dakotas. Thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Jordan, and golf ball size hail at Rock Springs, which collected three to four feet deep in ditches. Lewiston ID reported a record 1.50 inches of rain for the date, and a record rainfall total for August of 2.63 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1992: Hurricane Andrew made landfall in southern Florida at 4:30 AM on this day. The high winds caused catastrophic damage in Florida, with Miami-Dade County cities of Florida City, Homestead, and Cutler Ridge receiving the brunt of the storm. About 63,000 homes were destroyed, and over 101,000 others were damaged. This storm left roughly 175,000 people homeless. As many as 1.4 million people were left without electricity at the height of the storm. In the Everglades, 70,000 acres (280 km2) of trees were knocked down. Additionally, rainfall in Florida was substantial, peaking at 13.98 in (355 mm) in western Miami-Dade County. About $25 billion in damage and 44 fatalities were reported in Florida.

 

[nycwinter]

this is what humidity feels like  i almost had forgotten after a few low dewpoint days..

[MJO812]

Raining 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Pretty cool if you look at the current radar, lower level returns from the south passing through upper level returns from the north west

[Volcanic Winter]

5 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Don't worry Ant, It will be snowing soon 

I’m SO hyped to be in here with you guys late fall and winter again. Even when it’s a shitshow (especially when?), this place is always amusing. And genuinely AmericanWX has one of the smartest groups of individuals I’ve ever interacted with online. 

Let’s get that snow this year, but hey at least the company ain’t bad either. 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Pretty cool if you look at the current radar, lower level returns from the south passing through upper level returns from the north west

Waterspout off the jersey shore before

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Waterspout off the jersey shore before

Makes allot of sense, lots of effective shear. 
meanwhile poring sheet drizzle on the uws put an end to my day working outside. 

[Stormlover74]

Surprised no mention of heavy rain tomorrow morning in upton's forecast. Hrrr and nam are both quite wet although 3knam is less so

[Brian5671]

18z NAM a drencher tonight/tomorrow AM